Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/9:
Dec 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) reacts after scoring a basket during the fourth quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -3.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Knicks, Julius Randle had probably his best game of the season last time out and will look great again in this one. This Hornets frontcourt is one I love attacking with opposing big men, he’s going to look good again. I like going back to the well on Jalen Brunson as well, he hasn’t looked great over his last few games but the price tag has dropped to a price where he’s hard to ignore. RJ Barrett is probably more of a tournament guy for me due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season, but I have no issue with him here if you want to make a case for him. Then guys like Mitchell Robinson and Immanuel Quickley will be GPP options, although Robinson is another guy that feels slightly underpriced in a great matchup with this Hornets team. Speaking of the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. below is how this team operates with them off of the court this season:
- Jalen McDaniels – 17.4% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- PJ Washington – 22.3% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Terry Rozier – 29.7% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Kelly Oubre Jr. – 27.6% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
Mason Plumlee has been in good form as well with at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Rozier will play all the minutes he can handle, and has been in good form with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four and would be a guy I go right back to here as well. The Knicks aren’t playing a whole lot of defense so far this season, so this spot sets up nicely.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., PJ Washington
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Immanuel Quickley, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -8.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has looked much better over his last couple of games with at least 51 FanDuel points in two of his last three, and is playing awesome this season with a 29.6% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. The game logs probably won’t impress you much either, but there’s a lot of meat on the bone at these prices, we saw VanVleet bounce back a bit last time out. Scottie Barnes has at least 38 DraftKings points in three straight games and feels too cheap here as well. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, the price tag has come down on him. From the Magic, they’ll continue to be without Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., and Chuma Okeke in this one while Mo Bamba returned last time out but seems to have been passed in the rotation by Wagner brother number two, Moritz. Wagner has at least 40 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and approached a 50-burger last time out. I don’t think we need to chase him on this slate, but I think we can do worse in that price range. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony have seen their minutes fluctuate but have the ability to get to the 30-minute range if they’re playing well. People were burned by Fultz last time out as he gained some steam on their last slate, but you need to understand these guys are going to be volatile along with the rest of this team. Paolo Banchero has looked much better as of late and his price tag is back at a playable level, he’s a fine tournament option here but it’s not my favorite matchup. Bol Bol had a big bounce-back game last time out and is a solid GPP option again as well. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option, he hasn’t been in the best form either. Most of this Orlando team is GPP options for me.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Scottie Barnes, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Moritz Wagner, Cole Anthony, Bol Bol, Markelle Fultz
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -5.0
Starting with the Wizards, they’re going to be without Bradley Beal over their next few games while Kristaps Porzingis comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. I would anticipate Corey Kispert slides back into the starting lineup with Beal sidelined. Below is how the rest of the team operates with Beal off of the court this season:
- Kyle Kuzma – 30.0% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Will Barton – 19.3% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 30.6% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Monte Morris – 18.2% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.3% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
These would be my favorite options, I don’t think I’ll get a whole lot of Kispert even with him in the starting lineup. I will say, guys like Barton, Morris, and maybe even Avdija are more tournament options than anything, but the minutes and opportunities will open up with Beal out. That said, the main pieces I want here are Kuzma and Porzingis, they both look awesome here in a great matchup against a bad defense. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner both returned last night and should be good to go again in this one, although Turner comes in as questionable. They’ll both look like solid options, it was good to see them pick right up where they left off last time out against the Wolves. Andrew Nembhard came back into orbit with these guys back, so we can safely fade him at his elevated price tag. Buddy Hield has been much better over his last couple of games as well and would be someone I have no issue going back to. I think Bennedict Mathurin will be a tournament option regardless of who is active due to his volatility, but he’s been getting really good minutes as of late. The same can be said for Jalen Smith, although he’d look a lot better if Turner were out and actually drew the start when Turner was out before missing their previous game.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith
Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has at least 51 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a fine option here, but I don’t love the matchup against Allen and Mobley down low. De’Aaron Fox hasn’t been all that good as of late and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed. That said, his price tag has fallen too far, and will be a guy I get exposure to if he’s a full go. I do think going back to Keegan Murray is interesting as well depending on the value we get on this slate. He’s going to see at 23+ minutes depending on how he’s playing and has 10x upside at this price tag… but he’s extremely volatile at this point in his career. The minutes for Malik Monk are all over the place as well but has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last five and makes sense as a tournament option here. Then guys like Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes are solid secondary options. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell comes into this one as questionable as well, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a full go and will look great in a great matchup with this fast-paced Kings team. Darius Garland looked great last time out but struggled in this matchup earlier this season with just 16.5 DraftKings points, he’s a solid option regardless. Jarrett Allen returned last game and had a massive game, his price tag is still too low, and will look great yet again in this one. I can’t say I love the price tag on Evan Mobley, but the production as of late warrants it, he’s more of a secondary option for me. Then we can round this team out with Caris LeVert as a GPP dart throw who should see some extra usage off the bench with Kevin Love out.
5-star play: Jarrett Allen
4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: Keegan Murray
GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Caris LeVert
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -7.0
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray for the next few weeks after getting injured last time out. I would expect to see AJ Griffin stick around in the starting lineup with De’Andre Hunter approaching a comeback as well. Below is how this team operates with Murray and John Collins off of the court this season:
- Trae Young – 45.6% usage rate; 1.50 fpm
- Jalen Johnson – 12.9% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- AJ Griffin – 20.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Clint Capela – 16.0% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
I really wanted to jump off of the Trae bandwagon going forward due to the murmurs out of their locker room and his inconsistent performance relative to his price tag… but he’s hard to ignore with Murray now out. This is also a great matchup with the Nets, we can go right back to the well with him. I love the spot with Capela as well, his minutes have been much more consistent as of late, and opposing big men are dominating the Nets this season. Speaking of the Nets, they should get Ben Simmons back in this one, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him… he may see a minutes restriction after being out for 10+ days. Kevin Durant has been much better as of late with at least 51 DraftKings points in four of his last five and looks like a solid spend-up option in all formats on this slate. Kyrie Irving loves to hate me… I finally jump off of the wagon last time out and he goes out and drops 60 DraftKings points… he’s going to look good again here in an elite matchup. I do like going right back to Nicolas Claxton with Simmons potentially limited, his minutes become extremely secure, and has major double-double upside. Royce O’Neale will continue to play all the minutes he can handle and is a solid filler piece. Then Joe Harris and Seth Curry are solid GPP options, but good luck predicting which of them will have the big game.
5-star play: Trae Young, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Clint Capela, AJ Griffin, De’Andre Hunter, Kyrie Irving, Nicolas Claxton
Deeper Value: Jalen Johnson, Joe Harris, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Ben Simmons, Joe Harris, Seth Curry
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -5.0
Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis and LeBron James will both return for this one after missing their last game. LeBron James has looked great and I think he’s slightly underpriced, he’s a nice option in all formats and as I always say, he gets up for matchups against opposing stars like Embiid. Davis has been playing at a ridiculous level, he has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.92 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks if we take out last night’s game. I have no issue riding the heater out with him. Russell Westbrook is more of a tournament option but has looked solid over his last few games. The price did come down to a more playable range as well, but he’ll have to fight for usage with LeBron and Davis. Dennis Schroder makes sense as a value option, but his price tag has come up after a nice game last time out as he helped run the offense with Davis and LeBron out. Then a guy like Lonnie Walker is a good secondary option, but not someone I’m forcing in. We can also jump off of the Thomas Bryant train with Davis back as well, his price has come way up. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been great with at least 58 FanDuel points in three of his last four, and will look great again in this one. James Harden looked solid last time out in his return, he played 38 minutes so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward. Tobias Harris has been sneaky good lately as well with at least 40 DraftKings points in four of his last five but I do expect that to come down a bit with Harden back in there. Then guys like Shake Milton and De’Anthony Melton are not really in play for me with Harden back in there at their current price tags.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Tobias Harris, James Harden
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker
Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -10.5
Starting with the Pistons, Killian Hayes has been in great form with at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’s going to continue to start for Cade Cunningham and is a solid secondary option in this one after a huge bounce-back game last time out. Bojan Bogdanovic was ejected last time out, so don’t let that game log throw you off of him, I have no issue getting to him in tournaments, he always has the potential to get hot from deep. Jaden Ivey is more of a tournament option due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season. He has a 28.5% usage rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute with Cade off of the court this season, but man he’s been terrible. The minutes for Marvin Bagley will likely continue to be volatile but he’s a nice per-minute producer when he’s out there and the price tag isn’t all that bad on him. I don’t love the matchup, however. Then guys like Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Alec Burks are fine secondary tournament options as well. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been great and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in a great matchup. He has at least 57 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Jaren Jackson is a solid option as well although he struggled in this matchup a couple of games ago. He has a 25.8% usage rate and 1.40 fantasy points per minute with Bane off of the court this season. Dillon Brooks is a fine GPP option, we know he’s going to shoot and shoot some more, he has at least 19 field goal attempts in three straight, but will they fall? Then I have no issue going right back to Steven Adams as a mid-range center option in a great matchup.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks, Dillon Brooks
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.5
Starting with the Suns, they got Chris Paul back last time out and played just 24 minutes. I would imagine that’s his floor moving forward but I don’t think they’re ready to throw him into 30+ minutes quite yet, os he’s more of a secondary option for me due to the cheap price tag. Devin Booker hasn’t been good over his last few games, but Paul being back won’t take me off of him, the price tag has dropped for him as well. Deandre Ayton may actually benefit from Paul back moving forward, technically he’s losing points per minute with Paul on the court this season, but the pick and roll will certainly be there much more with Paul. We can probably jump off of the Cameron Payne boat, he’s going to go right back to his bench unit role. Then Mikal Bridges looks fine here as well, this team is more of a secondary team than anything until their prices start to regulate and they get back to their normal Chris Paul offense. From the Pelicans, they’ll be without Brandon Ingram again in this one, so I would expect to see Dyson Daniels in the starting lineup yet again. Below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Zion Williamson – 29.1% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- CJ McCollum – 26.2% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Dyson Daniels – 12.6% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 16.8% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Herb Jones – 19% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Pels, particularly those high-priced, high-usage guys in Zion and McCollum in a great matchup. I will say, Daniels had a rough go of it over his last few games, so maybe that keeps his ownership down, but he’s been great and getting consistent minutes as of late.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Zion Williamson
4-star play: Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: Dyson Daniels
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Dyson Daniels, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -2.5
Starting with the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns for the next few weeks. Anthony Edwards will be a guy I go right back to, he sees a nice bump in his rates with Towns out… he has a 30.2% usage rate and 1.31 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season. Rudy Gobert had a massive bounce-back game last time out dropping a 50-burger on the Pacers and now gets a revenge game against the team that essentially gave up on him… I like going right back to him at this price tag. I do like D’Angelo Russell, however, he’s been extremely consistent as of late with at least 32 FanDuel points in seven straight games, and gets an elite matchup here. Jaylen Nowell continues to play well and should see around 25 minutes again going forward, I have no issue with him here again. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels will see a boost with Towns out as well, Anderson is your cash guy and will start for Towns while McDaniels is a bit more volatile. From the Jazz, I’m going to leave this one to Upperslad and our Breaking News Channel, as Lauri Markkanen and Mike Conley come in as questionable while Collin Sexton has already been ruled out. We likely won’t get that news before lock and is needed to break down this team… so come hop in the discord before lock!
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell, UTA TBD
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaylen Nowell, Jaden McDaniels
Milwaukee Bucks @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: PK
We’ll round out the slate starting with Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to look great here and will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He has at least 54 DraftKings points in four straight games and big men can get to the rim with ease against this Dallas frontcourt. Khris Middleton got near the 30-minute mark last time out which makes me think he may be a full go here and is simply too cheap right now, he’s going to look like an elite GPP option and I do think he’s playable in cash if you want to absorb some risk. I’ve been all over Jrue Holiday as of late and he’s been great with at least 45 DraftKings points in four straight games, he’d be a great option again in this one, although the price tag is starting to come up. Bobby Portis will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes but has been a great per-minute guy when given the opportunity this season and has shown some consistent production as of late even after a down game last time out. Brook Lopez will continue to be a sneaky center option as well, he’s been extremely consistent this season and always has the upside to get hot from the three-point line to get himself a ceiling game. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic will be right there with Giannis and the rest of the spend-up options on the slate, he’s going to look like a great option if you can find the salary for him. He scored 51 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Christian Wood gets a revenge game against the team that he started his career with and never really gave him an NBA chance. His minutes have been much more consistent as of late, but I’d leave him as a tournament option as I have real foul trouble concerns with him in this one. Spencer Dinwiddie is a fine option, but on a big slate, I’m not sure how much I’ll get to him at this price range. I do like going right back to Tim Hardaway Jr., however, he’s been great lately with at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last five games.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood
NBA Lock of the Day: Rudy Gobert (DK – $7.2k; FD – $7.4k)
Rudy bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I want to go right back to in a revenge game against his old squad. The Jazz frontcourt isn’t great to begin with and now Lauri Markkanen is questionable as well. He dropped 41.6 FanDuel/41.8 DraftKings points against them earlier this season and feels too cheap here. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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