DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate - Dec. 5th, 2022

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/5:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Los Angeles Clippers @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Lac -3.5

We’ll kick off this slate with the Clippers, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will come in as questionable while Norman Powell has already been ruled out. I’ll operate under the assumption that both George and Kawhi play, but be sure to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on them. Neither George nor Kawhi has been in great form and aren’t guys I see myself getting a ton of on this slate, I suppose you could make a case for George if Kawhi were to sit, but on a slate of this size, I would consider him more of a tournament guy. Ivica Zubac continues to look great, however, and gets a great matchup against a weak Hornets frontcourt, he’ll be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Then the trio of John Wall, Reggie Jackson, and Marcus Morris are all tournament options as well with the volatility they bring… there just isn’t a ton I love about this team at this time. From the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. below is how this team operates with them off of the court this season:

• Jalen McDaniels – 17.9% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
• PJ Washington – 21.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
• Terry Rozier – 30.4% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
• Kelly Oubre Jr. – 27.7% usage rate; 1.01 fpm

Mason Plumlee has been in good form as well with at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Rozier will play all the minutes he can handle, and has been in good form with at least 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four and would be a guy I go right back to here as well.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels, PJ Washington, Kelly Oubre Jr., Mason Plumlee

 Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, Mason Plumlee

Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!

Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 225.0

Vegas Spread: Mil -9.5

Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to look great here and will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He has at least 61 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. The only thing I worry about here is he hasn’t been seeing upper-30’s minutes in games that aren’t close and you can tell by the spread that may be the case in this one. Khris Middleton should be back in this one after starting Friday night’s game against the Lakers. He played 27 minutes, so I would expect that is his floor moving forward and is playable at this price tag. I’ve been all over Jrue Holiday at this low-$7k price tag and he’s been great with at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he’d be a great option again in this one. Bobby Portis will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes but has been a great per-minute guy when given the opportunity this season and has shown some consistent production as of late. Brook Lopez looked great last time out, he does come in as questionable, so make sure he’s a go before throwing him in your lineup… the price tag is also up on him. From Orlando, they’ll continue to be without Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., and Chuma Okeke in this one while Mo Bamba comes in as questionable. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony saw their minutes come down last time out but we’ve seen them push that 30-minute mark already, so I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities if you want to look their way in tournaments. Paolo Banchero continues to be just slightly overpriced for my liking especially with the backcourt getting healthier. Over the last two weeks, he has just 0.80 fantasy points per minute, I’ll wait for that price tag to come down before I get too crazy on him. That said, he’s shown a nice ceiling this season, so he’s a fine option in tournaments. Bol Bol hasn’t been great over his last couple of games either, but he’s a fine GPP option as well, his price has come down a few hundred. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option, he hasn’t been in the best form either. Most of this Orlando team is GPP options for me.

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday

4-star play: Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol, Franz Wagner, Mo Bamba

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Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 227.0

Vegas Spread: Bos -1.5

Starting with the Celtics, Jaylen Brown is in unreal form right now with at least 56 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. I can’t say I love the matchup, but I wouldn’t have any issue riding out the heater if you’ve been on him. Malcolm Brogdon was a guy I was high on last night with Smart ruled out, if that’s the case again here I would go right back to him at a great price tag. Al Horford has been fine and his price has come down, I don’t hate getting exposure to him as well but probably more of a secondary/last piece-in type of guy. Jayson Tatum bounced back nicely last night against the Nets and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here, he’s been an elite producer this season. We can round the team out with Marcus Smart who is a fine secondary option as well, he’s been in great form. He does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed, if he were to sit we would see a boost for guys like Brogdon and Derrick White. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam bounced back in a big way last time out and was a guy I had no issue going right back to even after he struggled with fouls in the previous game. He’s playing awesome this season with a 29.5% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. Anunoby is coming off a big game last time out, but I do think there is a lot of meat on the bone for VanVleet at that price tag, however. Scottie Barnes finally buffed out the rust last time out and would be a solid option in that price range as well, the nice thing with the Raptors’ starters is we know they’re going to play all the minutes they can handle. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, the price tag has come down on him.

5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam

4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Derrick White, Gary Trent Jr.

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks

Vegas Total: 232.0

Vegas Spread: Atl -6.0

Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look great and I love attacking the Hawks backcourt with opposing guards. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.  Josh Giddey kept it rolling last time out even with Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup with at least 44 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The price tag has come up for him, but it’s hard to ignore his recent production. Lu Dort is fine, but he feels like he’s priced right where he should be and is volatile. Then the rest of this team is tough for me to prioritize or get any real exposure to outside of GPPs. They’re doing weird stuff with the lineup outside of these main three guys such as switching up the starting lineup in the second half of games and randomly pulling minutes. That said, guys like Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Jalen Williams are fine GPP options in this one. From the Hawks, they’ll be without John Collins and De’Andre Hunter in this one. I would expect to see AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson slide into the starting lineup with Hunter and Collins out and both looked great filling in for them last time out. We’ve seen nice flashes from Griffin this season and I think he looks solid in the mid-range here while Johnson would be more of a GPP value option. Trae Young ruined my lock of the day last time out by missing their game… but I’m going right back to him in this one. He has a massive 49.2% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute with Collins and Hunter off of the court this season and will look like a great option in all formats… that’s a +15.3% usage increase and +0.41 fantasy points per minute, the sample size is solid at 131.5 minutes as well. ***Insert eye-popping emoji***. Dejounte Murray ended up taking that lock of the day place for Young last time out and filled in nicely, that said, his price has come up and with Trae back, he’ll be more of a secondary tournament option. Lastly, Bogdan Bogdanovic made his debut on Friday night and played 22 minutes, I would assume that’s his floor going forward… but I can’t say I’m in love with playing him in this one until we see those minutes come way up.

5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young

4-star play: Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Deeper Value: Jalen Johnson

GPP Sleeper: Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jalen Williams, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic

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Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 225.0

Vegas Spread: Mem -2.0

Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable after returning last time out. He played 35 minutes in that game on Friday night, so I’m going to operate under the assumption he’s good to go here. He dropped a 50-burger in that game, so the rust isn’t there after being out for a few weeks, I have no issue going right back to him here. Bam Adebayo has been in good form with at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four, but the price tag has certainly come up on him… I do like the price a bit more on DraftKings. Kyle Lowry has continued to play all the minutes he can handle and didn’t seem to be too impacted by Butler returning last time out, his price has come down a couple hundred as well. Tyler Herro has been good with at least 40 FanDuel points in three straight games and would look like a solid secondary option in all formats in this one. While Caleb Martin and Max Strus should continue to see all the minutes they can handle and are in play as secondary options, but aren’t guys I’ll be prioritizing on a big slate. From the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Desmond Bane in this one, but the rest of the team should be good to go here. Ja Morant has a 36.9% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Bane out this season and will look good again here. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been great since returning from injury as well but the price tag has certainly come up which makes him more of a GPP option. I was all over him last night and will be a guy I go right back to here. Steven Adams missed their game last night which makes Brandon Clarke a free square, if that’s the case again we jump right back on the Clarke train. Dillon Brooks shot the ball great last night going 5-10 from three-point range and is a solid tournament option yet again in this one. Then John Konchar is a fine option but is never really a guy I get to when he’s priced appropriately, which he is again tonight.

5-star play: Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke (if Steven Adams is out)

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks

Deeper Value: Brandon Clarke

GPP Sleeper: Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, John Konchar

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Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 222.0

Vegas Spread: Phi -8.0

Starting with the Sixers, it sounds like James Harden will return in this one after being out for about a month. I would imagine he’s somewhat limited here, so I don’t think I want to go right back to him in his first game back… but at the very least I think it takes me off both Shake Milton and De’Anthony Melton as he’ll handle the usage in the backcourt. The minutes will likely still be there for both of them, but they’re priced as if Harden is still out. Joel Embiid had a massive game last time out and gets an elite matchup again in this one, I have no issue going right back to the well with him and he’ll look like one of the best spend-up options on the slate. Then I don’t see myself getting much Tobias Harris either, although the price tag has come down to a much more playable range if you want to get to him in tournaments. From the Rockets, Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in the best form as of late and gets a tough matchup with Embiid down-low tonight, he’ll be more of a tournament guy again in this one. Kevin Porter Jr. has been fine as of late but this is a big pace-down spot for the Rockets, so he’ll be another GPP guy for me. Jalen Green is in the same boat and has a nice price tag here, we know the minutes will be there for him as they’ve been consistent all season long. Jabari Smith is interesting as well, he’s a guy that’s going to be volatile which is to be expected coming in as a rookie getting this kind of run, but the matchup sets up well for him and he’s going to see 30+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble… I will say, he did not look great against Draymond and that Warriors frontcourt last time out. Lastly, Eric Gordon hasn’t been good over his last few games but the minutes should be there for him as they continue to shop him and unload that contract, so he’s in play as a tournament play.

5-star play: Joel Embiid

4-star play: Tobias Harris, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: James Harden, De’Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Eric Gordon

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Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks

Vegas Total: 221.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -3.0

Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul comes in as questionable here, but he’s been out for about a month now, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he misses again. If he does play, I would assume he’s on some sort of minutes restriction to see how that heel can handle in-game activity. Below is how this team operates with Paul and Cam Johnson off of the court this season:

• Devin Booker – 32.1% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
• Cameron Payne – 24.0% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
• Mikal Bridges – 17.0% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
• Deandre Ayton – 21.4% usage rate; 1.20 fpm

These would be my favorite options from the team, I don’t have a ton of interest in guys like Torrey Craig although he’s been in solid enough form as of late, on a big slate, I don’t see it. Booker came down to Earth last time out but he’s been awesome as of late with at least 58 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Deandre Ayton has also been in elite form with at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last five, he’s another guy that will look awesome here. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic scored 56 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and will continue to dominate the usage on this team. He’s right up there as one of the top spend-up options on the slate. Christian Wood comes in as questionable with an illness, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed, but he’s been getting much more consistent run as of late with at least 32 minutes in three of his last five games. He’s a solid play in all formats if those minutes are going to start being reliable. Spencer Dinwiddie had a big game last time out and would be a solid GPP option again here, it’s hard for me to ever prioritize him when Luka is in there. Tim Hardaway Jr. has stepped it up as of late with at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight and will look like a good mid-range option again in this one. Then a guy like Dorian Finney-Smith is a fine filler piece, but not someone I want to prioritize.

5-star play: Devin Booker, Luka Doncic

4-star play: Cameron Payne, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Torrey Craig, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith

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Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 238.5

Vegas Spread: Gsw -10.5

Starting with the Pacers, they’ll be without Tyrese Haliburton in this one while TJ McConnell comes in as questionable. McConnell missed their game last night but it was due to illness, so I like his chances of coming back today… if that’s the case, he should start for Haliburton and will look like an elite option in all formats. Below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:

• Bennedict Mathurin – 33.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
• TJ McConnell – 17.1% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
• Andrew Nembhard – 15.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
• Buddy Hield – 20.3% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
• Myles Turner – 27.4% usage rate; 1.45 fpm

This is a pace-up spot for the Pacers as well… and they’re already a fast-paced team, so this is going to be a nice spot for them in this one. My favorite options would be those ball-dominant guys and McConnell since the minutes will be there but look for guys like Mathurin, Hield, and Turner to take advantage of the increase in opportunity. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to crush and has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.45 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have been in solid form as well and look like nice options in the mid-range. Andrew Wiggins bounced back in a big way last time out with a 50-burger against the Rockets, he comes in as questionable, but assuming he plays he’s a fine secondary option. Jordan Poole has been much better as of late with at least 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five and makes plenty of sense again here. Then Kevon Looney will continue to be a solid value center option if you need one, especially on a short slate.

5-star play: TJ McConnell, Steph Curry

4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney

Deeper Value: TJ McConnell

GPP Sleeper: Jalen Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney

NBA Lock of the Day: Trae Young (DK – $9.6k; FD – $9.7k)

He was my lock of the day on Friday before getting ruled out before lock… so we didn’t get a chance to go to him. I’m going right back! Trae Young looks unbelievable today… John Collins and De’Andre Hunter will be out for the Hawks, and his numbers with these guys off of the court this season are incredible. In a 131.5-minute sample size, he has a 49.2% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court. That’s a +15.3% usage increase and a +0.41 increase in fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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