Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/3:
Dec 2, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) drives to the basket against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Mamadi Diakite (21) during the first half at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -10.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Magic, they’ll continue to be without Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, and Chuma Okeke in this one. We did see both Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony get their minutes in that 30 range last night, however, so I would imagine they’re full go’s if they don’t sit on the back end of a back-to-back here. They’ll both look like solid mid-range options on a short slate. Paolo Banchero continues to be just slightly overpriced for my liking especially with the backcourt getting healthier. Over the last two weeks, he has just 0.82 fantasy points per minute, I’ll wait for that price tag to come down before I get too crazy on him. That said, he’s shown a nice ceiling this season, so he’s a fine option in tournaments. Bol Bol hasn’t been great over his last couple of games either, but he’s a fine GPP option as well, his price has come down a few hundred. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option but has been fairly consistent as of late. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam was a guy I was all over last night but struggled heavily with foul trouble. He had four fouls before halftime and five fouls in his first 20 minutes. I have no issue going right back to him here if people are going to be off of him. With this team getting healthier it’ll hurt the usage and production for the starting five and probably takes me off of guys like Chris Boucher and Thad Young who are still priced up. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. I do think there is a lot of meat on the bone for VanVleet at that price tag, however. I’ll probably be underweight on Scottie Barnes here, his minutes came back up last night but he just hasn’t been in the best form as of late. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, we know the minutes will be there.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet
4-star play: Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Paolo Banchero, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Min -6.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes in as questionable in this one after missing their last game, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. The price tag has finally come up on him but for good reason, he’s going to be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. Josh Giddey had a big game filling in for Shai last time out and it caused his price tag to come up a good amount, he’s still in play if Gilgeous-Alexander plays but would be a guy I’m overweight on if he sits. Lu Dort is fine, but he feels like he’s priced right where he should be and is volatile. Then the rest of this team is tough for me to prioritize or get any real exposure to outside of GPPs. They’re doing weird stuff with the lineup outside of these main three guys such as switching up the starting lineup in the second half of games and randomly pulling minutes. That said, guys like Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Jalen Williams are fine GPP options in this one. From the Wolves, they’re going to be without Karl-Anthony Towns for the next month or so. We saw Kyle Anderson move into the starting lineup last time out and looked solid, he’ll look like a solid value option again on this slate in a great matchup. Below is how this team operates with Towns off of the court this season:
- Rudy Gobert – 12.5% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Anthony Edwards – 30.3% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- D’Angelo Russell – 22.4% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Kyle Anderson – 15.1% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Jaden McDaniels – 14.3% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
Anthony Edwards was a guy I was all over last time out and that won’t change here with Towns out and his price staying relatively the same. He sees a +3.5% usage increase and +0.21 fantasy points per minute with Towns off of the court and is a guy I want to get on early and often until his price adjusts. Outside of Edwards and Anderson there really isn’t a bunch of needle movers with Towns out at this time other than opening up frontcourt minutes. I will say Rudy Gobert has been terrible for DFS purposes, but I have no problem going back to him in a great matchup if the public is going to be off of him. I do want to touch on Jaylen Nowell as well, the guy is in incredible form with at least 28 DraftKings points in three straight and his price tag hasn’t adjusted, he’s a great option.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Nowell
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels
Deeper Value: Jaylen Nowell
GPP Sleeper: Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jalen Williams, Jaden McDaniels
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -9.5
Starting with the Rockets, Alperen Sengun has been fine as of late but did struggle in this matchup a few games ago. He’d be more of a tournament guy for me, but I do like the upside against an undersized frontcourt. Kevin Porter Jr. has been fine as of late but I do like going back to him in a +2.7 pace-up matchup with the Warriors. Jalen Green is in the same boat and has a nice price tag here, we know the minutes will be there for him as they’ve been consistent all season long. Jabari Smith is interesting as well, he’s a guy that’s going to be volatile which is to be expected coming in as a rookie getting this kind of run, but the matchup sets up well for him and he’s going to see 30+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble. Lastly, Eric Gordon hasn’t been good over his last few games but the minutes should be there for him as they continue to shop him and unload that contract, so he’s in play as a tournament play. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to crush and has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.45 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have been in solid form as well and look like nice options in the mid-range, they both dropped 40+ DraftKings points last time out against the Bulls. Andrew Wiggins has struggled over his last couple of games and would probably be more of a secondary GPP option on a slate of this size. Jordan Poole has been much better as of late with at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four and makes plenty of sense on a short slate. Then Kevon Looney will continue to be a solid value center option if you need one, especially on a short slate.
5-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Steph Curry
4-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole
Deeper Value: Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Eric Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -4.0
We’ll round this slate out with the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Damian Lillard in this one which will set up Anfernee Simons to look like a nice option again here. He has a 30.0% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Dame out this season and is in good form. Jerami Grant has been much better over his last few games as well and would be a guy I don’t mind going back to. I think we can go back to Jusuf Nurkic as well, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Josh Hart comes in as doubtful and we saw Trendon Watford start in his place last time out. Watford played 31 minutes and will look like a great value option again on this slate. Then we can round this team out with Justise Winslow who has been starting over Shaedon Sharpe as of late and his price tag hasn’t adjusted enough, he has at least 31 DraftKings points in three straight games. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen has been awesome as of late with at least 42 FanDuel points in two of his last three, and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Jordan Clarkson had a rough game last night, but if people are going to be off of him due to that performance I’ll have no issue going right back to him. He has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute with Conley off of the court this season. The same can be said for Collin Sexton who will continue to start in Conley’s place. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Malik Beasley has been great as well, I don’t love the price tag on him, but it’s hard to argue the production he’s shown this season. Kelly Olynyk is a guy I’m starting to like more and more, his minutes have finally solidified with at least 33 in five of his last six, they came crashing down last night due to foul trouble but I’ll go right back to him here. Then Jarred Vanderbilt would be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in minutes. I will say, Walker Kessler was the main beneficiary of Olynyk getting in foul trouble, I’m not going to chase his performance.
5-star play: Anfernee Simons, Justise Winslow, Trendon Watford, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: Trendon Watford
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
NBA Lock of the Day: Justise Winslow (DK – $5.2k; FD – $5.6k)
I’m going right back to the well with Winslow in this one as DraftKings and FanDuel have been really slow to price him up. He’s going to continue to start for Shaedon Sharpe and play 30+ minutes in a great matchup. He has around 0.85 fantasy points per minute with Dame and Hart off of the court this season and has at least 31 DraftKings points in three straight games. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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