Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/31:
Dec 30, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) against the Philadelphia 76ers during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Cavaliers, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Cedi Osman all come in as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’m going to operate under the assumption they’re all good to go for the sake of this article. Donovan Mitchell dropped 57.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and is a guy I like going right back to his price tag has fallen a bit. Darius Garland came down to Earth last time out but we know the ceiling is there for him and the matchup is great against this Bulls defense. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both at similar price tags but haven’t been in great form. They both bounced back nicely last time out and will look like nice secondary options here. Then guys like Caris LeVert and Kevin Love will be GPP guys, I would have a preference for Love if you’re in this price range due to his ability to produce in short minutes, LeVert is coming off of the better game, however. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has looked great as of late with at least 44.7 FanDuel points in four of his last five but did come down last time out. I don’t love the matchup, but I get it if you want to get to him in this spot. Then Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine have looked much better over their last two games and LaVine is coming off of a 60-point DraftKings night last night. Both guys look solid again here in a tough matchup. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. I will say, they’ve been giving minutes to Andre Drummond with Vucevic on the court with him which is solidifying his minutes, he’s going to look way too cheap if he’s going to keep seeing 15+ minutes. He has at least 23 DraftKings points in three straight games and his price tag hasn’t moved.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmu, Andre Drummond
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -7.0
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant has been great as of late and gets an elite matchup against this Hornets’ defense. He has a 33.2% usage rate and 1.52 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and makes sense as a spend-up option on this slate. The same can be said for Kyrie Irving, he’s been much less volatile as of late and dropped 60.75 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton are in a similar price range and get an elite matchup against the Hornets who are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing bigs on the season. Then guys like Royce O’Neale and TJ Warren will be fine secondary GPP options to round out this team. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball continues to have a better price tag on FanDuel but it did come down on DraftKings from where it was earlier in the week. He bounced back nicely last time out and is averaging 53.5 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. Gordon Hayward has been in fine form but he’s seeing all the minutes he can handle, so I like getting some exposure to him at the F position. It sounds like Kelly Oubre is going to miss this game which will help these guys with more usage but I would expect we see a lot of his minutes go to Jalen McDaniels who will look like a solid value option. I still think Terry Rozier is slightly overpriced with Ball back, but I don’t mind him as a secondary option in a great matchup here. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and PJ Washington are nice options who have been in good form as well. Washington was a guy I had as a core play until Oubre got upgraded last time out. He has a 19.3% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with Oubre off of the court this season.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, LaMelo Ball, PJ Washington
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton, Gordon Hayward, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: TJ Warren, Royce O’Neale, Jalen McDaniels, Terry Rozier
New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -4.5
Starting with the Knicks, they’re going to be without RJ Barrett while Jalen Brunson comes in as questionable. We saw Immanuel Quickley start in Brunson’s place last time out and would likely be the same deal here if he were to miss. We’ll likely see Quickley in the starting lineup anyway for Barrett even if Brunson is good to go, so he’s going to look like a good option regardless. Below is how this team operates with Barrett off of the court this season:
- Julius Randle – 30.5% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
- Immanuel Quickley – 21.9% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Jalen Brunson – 30.3% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 9.2% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Quentin Grimes – 16.8% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
These would be the top options from the Knicks, but we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for that Brunson news as we may end up seeing Miles McBride back in the starting lineup if he’s unable to give it a go. Julius Randle has been in elite form with at least 52 DraftKings points in five straight and has at least 40 minutes in four of those games, he’s going to be an elite option here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. has seen his production trend in the wrong direction since that massive game against the Bulls. The price feels like it’s about right on him as well, so probably more of a secondary guy for me in this one. Alperen Sengun has had back-to-back down games as well, but I do like the matchup here, so there is no issue going right back to him. Jabari Smith Jr. has been solid as of late but we know his volatility throughout the season, he’s a nice tournament option at this price tag at the very least. Jalen Green has played all the minutes he can handle as of late and is in a similar boat as Porter Jr. but at a much nicer price tag. Tari Eason just hasn’t been a guy I’ve loved getting to, he’s a good per-minute producer but for whatever reason, the Rockets won’t give him more than 23-25 minutes on the high-end.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green
Deeper Value: Miles McBride
GPP Sleeper: Mitchell Robinson, Quentin Grimes, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -7.5
Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic kept on rolling last time out, he’s averaging 74.52 FanDuel points per game over his last five games. He gets an elite matchup yet again here and is going to be one of the top spend-up options on the slate, yet again. Christian Wood is playing all the minutes he can handle as of late which has helped his production greatly. He gets a great matchup in this one and will look solid even at an elevated price tag. Spencer Dinwiddie has been fine, I don’t see myself getting a whole lot of him on this slate with that said. Then the only other guy I’d really have interest in here is Tim Hardaway Jr., who is playing really nice minutes right now, he’s volatile, but has a nice ceiling. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Devin Vassell again in this one and I would expect to see Romeo Langford back in the starting lineup, he started for him last game. Below is how this team operates with Vassell off of the court this season:
- Keldon Johnson – 31.8% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Tre Jones – 20.9% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Jeremy Sochan – 17.1% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Jakob Poeltl – 19.2% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Romeo Langford – 16.4% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
Langford was surprisingly well last time out, he’s generally not a guy I love getting to just because I don’t think he’s very good at the game of basketball, but I guess he’s a fine value option tonight. Poeltl’s minutes are trending in the right direction and would expect he gets to that 30-minute mark tonight. He’s way too cheap (specifically on DraftKings) if that’s the case and would be a guy I love in this matchup.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Jakob Poeltl (DraftKings)
4-star play: Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, Jakob Poeltl (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: Romeo Langford
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Romeo Langford, Josh Richardson
Philadelphia 76ers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.5
Starting with the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey returned last night to play 19 minutes and I would expect a similar minutes ceiling tonight making him unplayable at this price tag. He came off of the bench leaving De’Anthony Melton in the starting rotation, I would have no reason to believe that isn’t the same operation tonight. I still don’t think I would be all that thrilled to go to Melton, however. Joel Embiid has been great as of late and the Thunder will have no answer for him down low in this one, he’s a great option in all formats. James Harden came crashing down to Earth last night but still has at least 62 DraftKings points in his three previous games, he’s going to look solid again here but that price tag continues to climb. Then Tobias Harris isn’t really a guy I want here… the price tag is too high considering his production. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a model of consistency this season and would be a solid spend-up option yet again tonight. It’ll be tougher to get to the rim against Embiid in the paint, but he’s matchup-proof at this point. Josh Giddey has been extremely consistent as of late and is probably a couple of hundred dollars too cheap, he’s going to look like a nice option as well. Lu Dort bounced back nicely against the Hornets but is volatile and we kind of know what we’re getting out of him making him a tournament option. Then we get to the front court… which has proved to be a bit of a circus. They’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski for potentially the rest of the season and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a timetable to return. We saw Jaylin Williams start at the five last time out and couldn’t keep his hands to himself to stay out of foul trouble. He’s going to have a tough time with Embiid down low in this one, so we may see something similar here. If you’re trying to decide who to play in this frontcourt, here’s my advice… go to a local suds establishment for some New Years Eve. festivities, find a dart board, put their faces up there and go from there. Hell, Darius Bazley didn’t even see the court last time out, this team is a mess outside of SGA, Giddey, and Dort.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, De’Anthony Melton
Deeper Value: Jaylin Williams
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Jaylin Williams, Mike Muscala
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.5
Starting with the Pelicans, Zion Williamson hasn’t missed a stride since returning from injury. This game has a huge total and should be pretty fun to watch, he’s going to be a great option under $10k yet again. They’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram, however. I think we can safely come off of CJ McCollum at this price tag with Zion back… you’ll probably think I’m crazy due to the game he had last night, but I don’t expect him to knock down 11 three’s again. If people chase him at this price tag, let them. Jonas Valanciunas probably takes a hit as well as the minutes may not be as secure, but he’s been in pretty good form as of late, so he’s in play for GPPs at the very least, but Nance Jr. being out will help his minutes solidify a bit. From the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane got his minutes up to 29 last time out, and is slowly getting closer to being playable at his price tag… I do think you can get there on FanDuel at that price tag in tournaments. Ja Morant has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five and makes sense in all formats yet again here… how fun would a Zion/Ja ping-pong in this game be? Jaren Jackson has been a bit more volatile as of late and would probably be more of a tournament option than anything for me. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. I can’t pay this price tag for Tyus Jones, I just don’t love paying that kind of salary for a backup point guard who generally sees 20-25 minutes. I do like Steven Adams here, he’s been extremely consistent as of late. Then Brandon Clarke will make sense as a tournament option, he’s been in good form as of late.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, Ja Morant
4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, Desmond Bane (FanDuel), Jaren Jackson, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: CJ McCollum, Desmond Bane (DraftKings), Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke
Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Min -6.0
Starting with the Pistons, they’ll be without Killian Hayes who was suspended for the altercation with the Magic. We’ve seen Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey benefit big time from Killian being out and will look like great options at their respective price tags again here. Burks likely slides into the starting lineup and has a really nice price tag. The price tag on Bojan Bogdanovic feels like it’s right where it needs to be but is a fine GPP guy due to his ability to get hot from three-point range. Jaden Ivey has a 31.3% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Cade and Killian Hayes off of the court this season and gets a nice matchup in this one. Jalen Duren should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has performed well with at least 33 DraftKings points in two of his last three. Then of course Isaiah Stewart bounces back with Marvin Bagley back in the rotation, he’s a fine secondary GPP option. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while we don’t have an injury report quite yet on the rest of the team. We saw Rudy Gobert miss last night which lead to Naz Reid getting the start again… if that’s the same case tonight, Reid will look great at his current price tag. Anthony Edwards has been great as of late and has a 31.7% usage rate and 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and gets a nice matchup against the Pistons. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot. Rudy Gobert hasn’t been in the best form but would be a fine secondary center option for me on this slate, they’ll need his size in this one.
5-star play: Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Stewart, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell
Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -3.5
Starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler should both be good to go in this one and both are just kind of meh options for me. They’re both coming off of nice games last night and are fine secondary options here. The matchup is nice at least against this Jazz defense. I hate the price tag on Tyler Herro, but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s putting up as of late. He’ll be more of a tournament option, just because I can’t get myself to go there in cash games. Kyle Lowry had a rough go of it last night, but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle, and makes sense as a secondary option. Then we get to filler pieces in Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin… none of these guys are priorities, however. From the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk has returned from injury and doesn’t seem to be limited in any sort. He had a down game last night but is a fine GPP option in this one again. We kind of know the story on Lauri Markkanen by now, his price tag is annoying, but he still has a ceiling that we can’t ignore as we saw last time out, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games, I don’t love the matchup in this one, however. Jordan Clarkson is a fine option as well, he was a guy I liked last night but this is a much different matchup. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options to round out this team… I would need the price tag on Collin Sexton to come down a bit more before I get back to him.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mike Conley, Collin Sexton
NBA Lock of the Day: Immanuel Quickley (DK – $5.7k; FD – $6.7k)
I’m going right back to the well with Quickley in a great matchup with the Rockets tonight. The Knicks will be without RJ Barrett again while Jalen Brunson comes in as questionable. Quickley will start again and has a 21.9% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Barrett off of the court this season… these rates only go up with Brunson out as well. Not to mention, it’s a great matchup with the Rockets who aren’t playing any sort of defense, and is a slight pace-up spot as well. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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