Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/2:
Feb 8, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (6) controls the ball against Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Was -3.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Wizards, Bradley Beal is coming off of a rough couple of games but gets an elite bounce-back spot in this one and the price has come down slightly. I wouldn’t have a problem with Beal in tournaments at the very least. Kristaps Porzingis kept it rolling last time out and as soon as I call him scoring-dependent he goes out and grabs 19 rebounds. In fairness, it was against a Nets team that isn’t good at rebounding, but he’ll be in play for tournaments in a nice matchup again here. Kyle Kuzma has been unreal as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and will look good again against this Charlotte frontcourt. Deni Avdija has cooled off over his last couple of games and the minutes are a bit volatile as of late, he’d be more of a GPP dart than anything for me. Will Barton is in the same boat but is much cheaper than Avdija… I can’t imagine I get to either of them on this slate with all that much exposure. From the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. which means we should see Kelly Oubre and Jalen McDaniels in the starting lineup again. With Terry Rozier back in this one, I think we can jump off of the Theo Maldon train after he was chalky last time out. Below is how this team operates with Ball, Hayward, and Smith Jr. off of the court this season:
- Jalen McDaniels – 17% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- PJ Washington – 21.9% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Terry Rozier – 31.1% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Kelly Oubre Jr. – 29.2% usage rat;e 1.07 fpm
Mason Plumlee will look like a fine secondary center option as well, but he feels priced right about where he should be. Rozier will play all the minutes he can handle, I wouldn’t worry too much about him missing their last game with an illness. He’s averaging 27.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Wizards this season which isn’t great, but the price tag looks solid.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., PJ Washington
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Deni Avdija, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -8.0
We saw this matchup last time out these teams took the court, so we have a bit of a sample size to go off of here. Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one as questionable after missing the last few weeks. If he returns here I would expect he’s on some sort of minutes restriction, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Bam Adebayo has been in good form with at least 43 FanDuel points in two of his last three, but the price tag has certainly come up on him… I may just be underweight if Butler sits. Kyle Lowry has continued to play all the minutes he can handle but will take a hit if Butler returns as well, I’ll likely be underweight on a slate of this size as well. Tyler Herro has been good with at least 40 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and would look like a solid secondary option in all formats in this one. While Caleb Martin and Max Strus should continue to see all the minutes they can handle and are in play as secondary options, but aren’t guys I’ll be prioritizing on a big slate. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown returned last time out and played 28 minutes, so I would imagine he’s not restricted moving forward. He looked good in that game and is a fine tournament option on this slate. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White will take a bit of a hit with Jaylen back, but I would still be okay with Brogdon as a secondary play, he’s been in great form. Al Horford has been fine and his price has come down, I don’t hate getting exposure to him as well. Then we get to the elephant in the room with Jayson Tatum who kept it rolling last time out with an absolutely massive game, he’s going to be an elite option yet again in this one although Butler returning will help that Heat defense. We can round the team out with Marcus Smart who is a fine secondary option as well, I don’t hate the price tag.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Derrick White
Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -10.5
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero feels just a bit overpriced right now, we haven’t seen one of his big games since the start of November, so I may just wait for him to show me the production that warrants this price tag on a big slate… although it did come down slightly. They’ll be without Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, and Chuma Okeke again in this one while Mo Bamba comes in as questionable, so that’s news we’ll have to watch the Breaking News Feed for, as he would be the starting center in this one. Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz returned last time out and both dropped about 20 DraftKings points, it’s hard for me to prioritize either of them at this price tag. I’ll wait for their roles and price tags to solidify a bit more. Bol Bol came down to Earth last time out but should continue to start and will be a solid option in a tougher matchup with this Cavs frontcourt. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option but has been fairly consistent as of late. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been extremely solid this season but hasn’t been all that great over his last couple of games. This is a nice bounce-back matchup, but I just don’t love the pace in this one, he’d be more of a tournament guy for me. Darius Garland looked solid and his price is starting to come down a bit, but he’d be in a similar category as Mitchell on a big slate. Caris LeVert is too cheap right now, he had a massive game last time out and is a guy I’ll go right back to in this one, he’s going to play right around 30 minutes again in this one. That said, I like the price more on DraftKings where he’s under $5k. Jarrett Allen will be out again in this one and we saw Mamadi Diakite start in his place last time out, if he’s in the starting lineup again he makes plenty of sense at the dead min… he can be a great per-minute producer. Finally, Evan Mobley has at least 37 FanDuel points in two of his last three games and will look solid again here.
5-star play: Caris LeVert (DraftKings)
4-star play: Bol Bol, Mo Bamba, Franz Wagner, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: Mamadi Diakite
GPP Sleeper: Paolo Banchero, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Mamadi Diakite
Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Den -2.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. will continue to be out, but it looks like Bones Hyland will be back. Nikola Jokic continues to look great with at least 50 FanDuel points in four of his last five and gets a nice matchup in this one. He’s one of the better raw options on the slate. Jamal Murray has been awesome as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and has a 28.2% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Porter Jr. off of the court this season. Aaron Gordon bounced back nicely last time out and would be a guy I like going back to with Porter Jr. out opening up a bunch of shots and minutes at the wing. Then guys like Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are fine secondary GPP options, but not guys I’m prioritizing by any means. Brown had a nice game last time out but may lose a few minutes with Bones returning. From the Hawks, they’ll be without John Collins and De’Andre Hunter in this one while Clint Capela comes in as questionable. I would expect to see AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson slide into the starting lineup with Hunter and Collins out. We’ve seen nice flashes from Griffin this season and I think he looks solid in the mid-range here while Johnson would be more of a GPP value option. Trae Young has a massive 49.2% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute with Collins and Hunter off of the court this season and will look like a great option in all formats… that’s a +15.3% usage increase and +0.41 fantasy points per minute, the sample size is solid at 131.5 minutes as well. ***Insert eye-popping emoji***. Dejounte Murray had a solid bounce-back game last time out and will continue to play all the minutes he can handle, he’s a great option here as well. Lastly, Bogdan Bogdanovic comes in as questionable, but we haven’t seen him play yet this season, so I would imagine he’s on a pretty strict minutes limit if he does play.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Trae Young
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, AJ Griffin
Deeper Value: Jalen Johnson
GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Clint Capela, Jalen Johnson
Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -8.5
Starting with the Lakers, LeBron James bounced back nicely last time out and will look like a solid spend-up option again in this one. He always seems to get up for games against opposing superstars. Anthony Davis has been in elite form as of late with at least 58 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight games and is a good option yet again here. Russell Westbrook is more of a tournament option, we saw his volatility last time out and the minutes are impossible to predict. I can’t imagine I get a whole lot of him on a big slate like tonight. Dennis Schroder still saw 29 minutes with Patrick Beverley back last time out and would be a solid value option, that said, he comes in as questionable as they’re expecting a baby any day… so this will be news you’ll want to keep an eye on. Then a guy like Lonnie Walker is a good secondary option, but not someone I’m forcing in. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to look great here and will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He has at least 61 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. They will get Khris Middleton back in this game, however, which will take some usage away from the rest of the starters. That said, I would expect Middleton is restricted a bit in this one, so I’m not going to take his return too seriously in this first game. I was all over Jrue Holiday last time out and will look good again in this one, his price tag is probably more correct with Middleton back, but again, I think Middleton is pretty limited here. Bobby Portis will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes but has been a great per-minute guy when given the opportunity this season. Brook Lopez has sneakily been one of the better centers in the league this season and they’ll need his size in this one.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Dennis Schroder
GPP Sleeper: Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen
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Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -1.5
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam saw his minutes come up last time out and I would anticipate his minutes won’t be monitored moving forward. I love the matchup against this Nets frontcourt, we saw Kristaps destroy the boards last time out, and I love going back to Siakam in this one. With this team getting healthier it’ll hurt the usage and production for the starting five and probably takes me off of guys like Chris Boucher and Thad Young who are still priced up. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. I do think there is some meat on the bone for VanVleet at that price tag, however. I’ll probably be underweight on Scottie Barnes here, his minutes are trending in the wrong direction, and just hasn’t looked great since returning. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, we know the minutes will be there for him after a massive game last time out. From the Nets, they’ll be without Ben Simmons again in this one so we should see Joe Harris and Seth Curry pick up some extra minutes with him out, and look like great value options. Kevin Durant has looked much better as of late with at least 55 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a solid spend-up option here. Kyrie Irving’s price tag continues to fall and is going to hook me in again in this one, that said, I don’t love targeting the Raptors with opposing players so he’ll be more of a secondary or tournament guy for me. He has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute on the season with Simmons off of the court this season. The minutes for Nicolas Claxton should be pretty locked in as well and I would think he closes with Simmons out, he’s a great option at this price tag. Lastly, TJ Warren should make his season debut here after being out since the end of 2020, he’s going to be heavily monitored here, you can’t play him in this one.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Joe Harris, Kyrie Irving, Nicolas Claxton, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: Joe Harris, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Joe Harris, Seth Curry
Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.0
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid wasn’t great in a blowout against the Cavs but gets a solid bounce-back matchup here. He has a 39.7% usage rate and 1.66 fantasy points per minute with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey off of the court this season. De’Anthony Melton and Shake Milton will continue to run the backcourt with Tyrese Maxey and James Harden still out. The price tag on Milton is finally starting to come up but had a rough go of it last time out and has a 21.9% usage rate and 0.94 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. Then Tobias Harris will probably be a guy I’m lower on until his price tag adjusts to Embiid being back although he’s been in good form over his last few games… he also comes in as questionable with an illness, so keep an eye on his availability. From the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Desmond Bane in this one, but the rest of the team should be good to go here. Ja Morant has a 37.3% usage rate and 1.50 fantasy points per minute with Bane out this season and will look good again here. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been great since returning from injury as well but the price tag has certainly come up which makes him more of a GPP option. That said, Embiid is going to get him in foul trouble before the opening tip… so don’t even think about it in cash. Steven Adams has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and they’ll need his size down low against Embiid in this one. Then John Konchar is a fine option but is never really a guy I get to when he’s priced appropriately, which he is again tonight.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Ja Morant
4-star play: De’Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Steven Adams, John Konchar, Brandon Clarke
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -7.0
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram will continue to be out, but CJ McCollum is listed as probable as he’s cleared health and safety protocols. Below is how this team operates with Ingram off of the court this season:
- Zion Williamson – 28.6% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- CJ McCollum – 28.3% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 16.2% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Herbert Jones – 19.0% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
I do think McCollum is an interesting GPP option in case he does play his normal minutes, but I wouldn’t go too crazy with him. I’ve been all over Zion with these guys out as of late and will be a guy I go right back to in this one. I would expect to see Jose Alvarado go back to the bench if McCollum is good to go, so we can come off of him here. Jonas Valanciunas bounced back nicely last time out and makes sense as a GPP option here as well. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Jakob Poeltl and Jeremy Sochan again in this one. We saw Keita Bates-Diop and Zach Collins enter the starting lineup in their place and both looked solid. I have no issue going right back to these guys, Collins saw 27 minutes which is a nice sign with him getting in foul trouble as well. I can’t say I’d be all that thrilled to play Bates-Diop, but he’s a solid value option on a big slate. Keldon Johnson has a 31.8% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute with Poeltl and Sochan off of the court this season and should see his rebound equity climb as well… I was all over him last time out. He’s a great play along with Devin Vassell in this one. Then we can round this team out with Tre Jones who came down to Earth last time out but is priced nicely.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, Zach Collins
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: Keita Bates-Diop
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas, Dyson Daniels
Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -4.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton continues to look great and has at least 60 DraftKings points in two of his last four but did have a disappointing game in that massive implied total last time out. He comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go here. Myles Turner had a dud last time out as well, but this Jazz frontcourt doesn’t scare me, he’s a solid option in all formats. Buddy Hield has been a bit more volatile as of late than we’re used to seeing this season. He’s another guy that would probably be more of a tournament-type option. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Jalen Smith will be tournament guys for me, but the pace and implied total certainly set up well for them. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen is a tough guy to break down, yes the ceiling is there for him, but he doesn’t hit it consistently enough for me to love the price tag on him. I’ll leave him more as a GPP option but won’t talk you off of him if you want to get there in cash. Jordan Clarkson bounced back in a big way last time out and has a 27.3% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Conley off of the court this season. The same can be said for Collin Sexton who will continue to start in Conley’s place. He has at least 30 minutes in four of his last five and at least 32 DraftKings points in each of those games. Malik Beasley has been great as well, I don’t love the price tag on him, but it’s hard to argue the production he’s shown this season. Kelly Olynyk is a guy I’m starting to like more and more, his minutes have finally solidified with at least 33 in five straight, he’s too cheap in this one. Then Jarred Vanderbilt would be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in minutes.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Myles Turner, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -11.5
Starting with the Rockets, Alperen Sengun had a nice bounce-back game last time out and will be a fine secondary tournament option in this one. On a slate of this size, I think we can safely ignore the rest of this frontcourt with guys like Bruno Fernando, Jae’Sean Tate, Tari Eason, and KJ Martin. Kevin Porter Jr. has been fine as of late but I don’t know how much I’ll get to him on a big slate. The price isn’t great, but he’s a fine tournament option. I almost would prefer to get to Jalen Green at a cheaper price tag, but even he’s struggled over his last couple of games and it’s a tougher matchup with this Phoenix defense. Jabari Smith bounced back last time out and has been in good form as of late, he’s a rookie so he’s going to be volatile, but he’s a solid option at this price tag. Lastly, Eric Gordon was terrible last time out, I think we can do a lot better in that price range on a slate of this size. From the Suns, Chris Paul will be out again in this one (probably up all night looking at Kanye’s Twitter) along with Cam Johnson who has been out for a few weeks now already. Below is how this team operates with Paul and Cam Johnson off of the court this season:
- Devin Booker – 31.5% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Cameron Payne – 24.7% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 16.4% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 21.1% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the team, I don’t have a ton of interest in guys like Torrey Craig although he’s been in solid enough form as of late, on a big slate, I don’t see it. Booker has been incredible as of late with at least 69 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and now gets an elite matchup with the Rockets. Deandre Ayton has also been in elite form with at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’s another guy that will look awesome here.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Cameron Payne, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Torrey Craig
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -7.0
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has been awesome as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He’ll be hard to ignore with the number of minutes he’s getting right now. Nikola Vucevic hasn’t been in quite as good form, but the price tag is still solid, and makes sense as a secondary option in all formats against an undersized frontcourt. I’ll continue to go back to Zach LaVine at this price tag as well, he’s just too cheap and has at least 36 DraftKings points in four of his last five. I keep writing up Andre Drummond as a solid flyer for GPPs at his price tag, and we’ve seen why as of late, he has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last five and has legit 10x upside at this price tag if anything were to happen to Vuc. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to crush and has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.46 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have been in solid form as well and look like nice options in the mid-range. Neither of them are priorities in all likelihood, but they’ll look good nonetheless. Andrew Wiggins has struggled over his last couple of games and would probably be more of a secondary GPP option on a slate of this size. Jordan Poole has looked much better over his last few games but still feels like he’s priced about right for his production off of the bench this season. Then Kevon Looney will continue to be a solid value center option if you need one, especially on a short slate.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Andre Drummond, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney
NBA Lock of the Day: Trae Young (DK – $9.7k; FD – $9.8k)
Trae Young looks unbelievable today… John Collins and De’Andre Hunter will be out for the Hawks, and his numbers with these guys off of the court this season are incredible. In a 131.5-minute sample size, he has a 49.2% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court. That’s a +15.3% usage increase and a +0.41 increase in fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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