Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/28:
Dec 28, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Richaun Holmes (22) returns to defense after scoring a basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Suns, we don’t have an injury report for them but I’m going to operate under the assumption they’ll be without Devin Booker and Landry Shamet again, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 21.6% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 26.4% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Damion Lee – 15.3% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 20.6% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Josh Okogie – 19.5% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Suns which is pretty condensed tonight with how shorthanded they are. I don’t think Okogie is very good at basketball but he’s performed well in these circumstances this season and makes sense as a value option in this one. I will say, Duane Washington Jr. will be interesting as well, he only played 24 minutes last night but shot 21 field goals… yes, that’s almost one per minute. He looked great and could be in line for more minutes here at near-min price. Paul and Ayton make the most sense as spend-up options and both dropped 50-burgers last time out. Lee has been fine and should continue to see around 30 minutes in the low to mid-range. From the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis bounced back nicely last night with a 50-burger against the Sixers and would be a guy I have no issue getting to in tournaments. Kyle Kuzma came crashing down to Earth last night and would be another GPP guy, but the price tag is trending in the right direction. Bradley Beal hasn’t been great relative to his price tag but it does continue to come down slowly, so I don’t hate getting to him in GPPs. Deni Avdija returned last night to play 20 minutes, I think he’s pretty easily a fade on a nice-sized slate. Then Monte Morris is a solid secondary option if you happened to land on him as a last piece in.
5-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Damion Lee, Mikal Bridges, Duane Washington Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: Duane Washington Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Duane Washington Jr., Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, Monte Morris
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
Starting with the Magic, they’re beginning to get healthier as they got Wendell Carter Jr. back. He hasn’t seen more than 19 minutes since returning, so we’ll need to wait for his minutes to come back before we can go back to him in this price range. Paolo Banchero is more of a GPP option due to the volatility relative to his price tag, but we know the ceiling is there for him… it was ugly last night against the Lake Show. Franz Wagner and Moritz Wagner both look like solid secondary options at their price tags in a good matchup. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony both had big games last time out and are guys I like going right back to in GPPs at the very least. I was all over Anthony last night and it ended up burning me, but the minutes should be there around 25-30 coming off of the bench. I’ve been having trouble getting to Bol Bol as of late due to his volatility and with Carter Jr. back as well he’s probably not a guy I get to in this one. From the Pistons, Bojan Bogdanovic is the highest price guy on both DraftKings and FanDuel (tied with Killian Hayes) and makes sense as a secondary guy due to his ability to get hot from behind the three-point line. I think Killian Hayes is interesting here, he’s looked much better with at least 34 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and would be a guy I don’t mind in this price range. Jalen Duren is a guy I do like quite a bit, the minutes have been trending in the right direction and he’s performed the best of their frontcourt options. He has a 13.1% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Isaiah Stewart will see a boost for me tonight with Marvin Bagley already ruled out, it will help solidify his minutes as we saw last time out where he saw 40(!). Then Jaden Ivey will look like a solid option as well, he’s looked better as of late and the price tag is fair… I would prefer him over the likes of Saddiq Bey and Alec Burks to round out this team.
5-star play: Isaiah Stewart
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, Bol Bol, Wendell Carter Jr., Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -8.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, and I would expect to see Thomas Bryant start in his place even after getting banged up last time out. He got his minutes back last night, so I wouldn’t worry too much about him. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 34.9% usage rate; 1.53 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 29.7% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 18.7% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 20.9% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I do think we need to monitor the Breaking News Feed on the second half of a back-to-back just in case we see LeBron taking a rest day… the spread on this one feels a bit bigger than I was expecting. I think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags they’ve both produced nicely with Davis out so far. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler come in as questionable, I’m going to operate under the assumption that they’re good to go here, but this is another case where we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Both Butler and Bam look fine here, they’re priced right about where they should be and make sense as secondary options in a good matchup. I hate the price tag on Tyler Herro, even in Butler and Bam end up missing, he’s priced thru the nose. I was pretty heavy on Kyle Lowry last time out and he looked very solid, the nice thing with him is we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. Then we get to filler pieces in Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin… none of these guys are priorities at their current price tags even if Butler and Bam miss.
5-star play: LeBron James
4-star play: Thomas Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Caleb Martin
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -6.5
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant has been fine as of late but not so much when you compare it to his price tag… that said, this is a great matchup and would be a solid spend-up option in all formats on this slate. Kyrie Irving has been in great form as well with at least 44 DraftKings points in five of his last six and gets a nice matchup here. I like going back to Kyrie in this spot as a secondary option at the very least. Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton are very similar to me both in price and production, I don’t mind getting to either of them in a nice matchup… they should see plenty of minutes. Royce O’Neale is never a guy I prioritize, but he’s going to play big minutes and is a fine price tag if you happen to land on him. Then Seth Curry and TJ Warren are dart throws but could see a boost with Joe Harris out for this one. I’m kicking myself for not getting more Warren last time out… he was a guy I was really diving deep into when Curry was ruled out. He has a 21.1% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute on the season and is a guy they’ll need down the stretch, so getting him minutes now makes perfect sense. From the Hawks, this is another team that we don’t have an injury report on, so I’ll operate under the same circumstances as we had yesterday where Clint Capela was out and De’Andre Hunter is questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding their statuses. I would imagine Onyeka Okongwu gets the start for Capela and has a 14.7% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Capela off of the court this season. Trae Young had a down night last night but did leave the game early with a calf injury, assuming he’s good to go here, I would have no issue going right back to him in a nice matchup. Dejounte Murray is more of a tournament option for me due to the volatility in sharing usage with Young in the backcourt, but the ceiling is certainly there. Bogdan Bogdanovic is priced about right with this team being fairly healthy amongst the usage-heavy guys, so he’s probably not a guy I get to a whole lot in this one. Then John Collins was a guy that grew on me as the day went on yesterday and was a guy I ended up getting a decent amount of. I love the matchup for him here and would be a guy I like going right back to the well on especially if any of these main pieces are out for the Hawks.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton, TJ Warren, Onyeka Okongwu, Dejounte Murray, John Collins
Deeper Value: TJ Warren
GPP Sleeper: Seth Curry, TJ Warren, De’Andre Hunter, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.0
Starting with the Bucks, they’ll be without Khris Middleton again in this one and we’ve seen them flip around who has started in his place, last time out it was Pat Connaughton who ended up playing a really nice game on Christmas Day. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 38.5% usage rate; 1.67 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 25.6% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.7% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 14.7% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
Giannis and Holiday are my favorite options in a great matchup against the Bulls here. The thing I like about them is the minutes they should see in a competitive game. The Bucks are really good about limiting their main guys to lower-30’s minutes in games that don’t necessarily stay that close, but this one should be tight meaning we could see a minutes ceiling on these guys. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has looked great as of late with at least 44.7 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, he’s going to be a great option again in this one. Then Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine were huge disappointments against the Rockets last time out and their prices have come up. They’re still going to look good here, but probably not elite plays like they were last time out. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. I will say, they’ve been giving minutes to Andre Drummond with Vucevic on the court with him which is solidifying his minutes, he’s going to look way too cheap if he’s going to keep seeing 15+ minutes.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Ayo Dosunmo, Coby White, Andre Drummond
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -6.5
Starting with the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while Kyle Anderson comes in as questionable. Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels would see a nice boost in minutes if Anderson is forced to miss and both have been in good form. Anthony Edwards has been great as of late and has a 30.1% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and gets a nice matchup against this Pelicans team. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot. Rudy Gobert hasn’t been in the best form but would be a fine secondary center option for me on this slate. Then Jaylen Nowell and Austin Rivers would make sense here as well, Rivers would be a bit more dependent on Anderson missing, however. From the Pelicans, Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy should return in this one as they come in as probable while Herb Jones comes in as questionable. They’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram, however. I think we can safely come off of CJ McCollum at this price tag with Zion back, he’s priced as if Zion is out. Jonas Valanciunas probably takes a hit as well as the minutes may not be as secure, but he’s been in pretty good form as of late, so he’s in play for GPPs at the very least, they’ll need his minutes against Gobert down low. We can come off of Naji Marshall at this price tag as well until his price comes down to where it should be with all these wings back in there. Overall, I think the only playable pieces on this team right now are Zion, Valanciunas, Murphy, and maybe Herb Jones just due to the price adjustments with this team banged up over the last week or so.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Zion Williamson
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, CJ McCollum
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -3.5
Starting with the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk comes in as questionable after returning to practice yesterday, which makes me think he’ll be good to go here. If he plays it would be a hit to both Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler. These three would all be GPP options for me since we don’t know the extent of Olynyk’s minutes quite yet. We kind of know the story on Lauri Markkanen by now, his price tag is annoying, but he still has a ceiling that we can’t ignore as we saw last time out, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. I do like going right back to Jordan Clarkson however, he’s averaging 40.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Warriors this season. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options to round out this team… I would need the price tag on Collin Sexton to come down a bit more before I get back to him. From the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson in this one. I would expect to see Moses Moody slide into the starting lineup for Klay and would make sense as a value option on this slate. Below is how this team operates with these three guys off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 36.3% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Jonathan Kuminga – 19.6% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Moses Moody – 15.5% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Donte DiVincenzo – 19.1% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Draymond Green – 11.3% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team, Kevon Looney is an honorable mention, but his usage and per-minute production isn’t really impacted by the wings and backcourt. I gotta say… I don’t really love any of these guys, Poole is priced appropriately, as is DiVincenzo. I guess I would just look to these salary savers in Moody and the mid-range with Green, Kuminga, and Looney.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Moses Moody
GPP Sleeper: Jonathan Kuminga, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney, Collin Sexton, Malik Beasley, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt
Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Den -2.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic came down to Earth relative to his price tag in this matchup last night, but I like going right back to him here. The implied total is huge and he’s averaging 70.2 DraftKings points per game in his last five games. Jamal Murray has looked great as well and the Nuggets get a +3.3 bump in pace in this matchup, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. Michael Porter Jr. showed off his ceiling last night as he got hot from three-point range. I like going right back to him as a tournament option in a pace-up spot again tonight. Porter Jr. being back hurts Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown a bit, Brown more so than Gordon who had a massive game last time out. Gordon ended up missing last night’s game while Brown left the game early, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on them as we get closer to lock. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis ended up missing last night’s game and I would assume he’s out again in this one with that fracture he’s dealing with. I would expect Alex Len back in the starting lineup tonight, but only saw 14 minutes last night, so he’ll be more of a GPP value at min price. Richaun Holmes is also a candidate to start as well, he saw 23 minutes last night and was the more productive player… but we likely won’t know the starting lineup before lock. Below is how the rest of this team operates with Sabonis off of the court this season:
- De’Aaron Fox – 29.2% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Keegan Murray – 16.1% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 17.8% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Kevin Huerter – 17.9% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team… Fox looks awesome here and gets a +0.14 fantasy point-per-minute bump with Sabonis out. Then guys like Murray and Barnes should see more minutes in those big wing rolls with Sabonis out as well.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter
Deeper Value: Alex Len, Richaun Holmes
GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, Bones Hyland, Alex Len, Richaun Holmes, Malik Monk
NBA Lock of the Day: Isaiah Stewart (DK – $4.8k; FD – $5.5k)
I love going right back to Stewart here with Marvin Bagley and Isaiah Livers being out for the Pistons. These guys being out helps solidify his minutes as we saw last time out where he saw 40 minutes. He has a 15.9% usage rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute with Cade and Bagley off of the court this season and gets a great matchup with the Magic in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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