Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/27:
Dec 25, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) reacts after a basket during the second half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -3.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, and I would expect to see Thomas Bryant start in his place even after getting banged up last time out. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 34.4% usage rate; 1.54 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 30.2% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 18.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 21.9% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. Bryant only played 19 minutes on Christmas which was frustrating, to say the least, but I have no issue going right back to him in a nice matchup with the Magic. I do think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags they’ve both produced nicely with Davis out so far. From the Magic, they’re beginning to get healthier as they got Wendell Carter Jr. back last time out. He saw 19 minutes last time out, so I would assume that’s his floor in this one, but at this price tag, I would want to know he’s going to be closer to that 30-minute mark. Paolo Banchero is more of a GPP option due to the volatility relative to his price tag, but we know the ceiling is there for him. Franz Wagner and Moritz Wagner both look like solid secondary options at their price tags in a good matchup. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony both had big games last time out and are guys I like going right back to in GPPs at the very least. I’ve been having trouble getting to Bol Bol as of late due to his volatility and with Carter Jr. back as well he’s probably not a guy I get to in this one.
5-star play: LeBron James
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant, Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Moritz Wagner
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid came down to Earth relative to his price tag last time out but has been in elite form as of late. He has a 36.7% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks and gets a nice matchup here. James Harden was my lock of the day on the Christmas Day slate and he did not disappoint, he now has at least 67 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and his price tag hasn’t moved. Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton have been in good form surprisingly enough and are fine secondary options, I never really love prioritizing them when Harden and Embiid are in there, but if you fall on them you could certainly do worse. From the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis has been a bit more volatile as of late but his price tag has come down a bit. This is a tougher matchup with Embiid down low, that said, he’s averaging 53.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Sixers this season. Kyle Kuzma has been a guy I’ve been getting to more often as of late and has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Bradley Beal hasn’t been great relative to his price tag but it does continue to come down slowly, so I don’t hate getting to him in GPPs. Deni Avdija has been out for about a week and comes in as questionable here, I’ll operate under the assumption he plays, but I can’t imagine getting a whole lot of him at this point on a 10-game slate. Then Monte Morris is a solid secondary option if you happened to land on him as a last piece in.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Bradley Beal
Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -14.5
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. bounced back in a big way last time out against the Bulls last night. He gets a much tougher matchup in this one tonight, but it’s hard to argue with that kind of upside in this price range, he’s a solid GPP option at the very least. Alperen Sengun has at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight and dropped a 50 burger last night. I like attacking the Celtics with opposing big men, but I have a feeling that’s going to change quickly with Timelord back for Boston. Jabari Smith Jr. has been solid as of late but we know his volatility throughout the season, he’s a nice tournament option at this price tag at the very least. Jalen Green has played all the minutes he can handle as of late and is in a similar boat as Porter Jr. Then Eric Gordon was able to give it a go last night and should be again tonight if you need a value option. Tari Eason saw a price drop since last night’s slate, but still not a guy I see myself getting to here as he’ll continue to see around just 20 minutes. From Boston, Jayson Tatum has at least 60 FanDuel points in three of his last five and is going to look like a great option yet again in a good matchup with a bad Rockets defense. Jaylen Brown hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten to much in this price range, but I won’t talk you off of him in this one due to the matchup. Marcus Smart let me down on the Christmas Day slate but he gets an elite bounce-back spot in this one, so I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White are fine secondary options but take a bit of a hit with Smart back in there… they’re probably more of GPP options than anything here. Robert Williams saw his minutes take a dip last time out, I’ll wait for his minutes to get back to where they usually are before throwing him in my lineup… but if you’re okay with some risk, I’m okay with him here. Then Al Horford came back down to Earth last time out and would be more of a tournament option again for me here.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jalen Smith, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Smith Jr., Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Robert Williams, Al Horford
Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.0
Starting with the Clippers, I would imagine Kawhi Leonard returns in this one on the back end of a back to back in a revenge game against his old squad. He’s been in good form as of late with a 31.5% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Paul George had a big game last night and saw a price decrease… the matchup isn’t great, but it’s hard to ignore the production he’s shown. John Wall and Marcus Morris are both fine options, but I highly doubt I land on them in this spot on a big slate. The minutes for Ivica Zubac are trending in the right direction and would be a guy I have no problem going right back to in this one as a tournament option and if you’re feeling frisky… maybe even single entry. I can’t imagine getting much of Norman Powell or Reggie Jackson either, but they’ll see minutes. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has at least 51 FanDuel points in three straight games and will look like a nice option yet again in this one. Fred VanVleet has been much better as of late and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby are similar options for me and are both coming off of games where they dropped 45+ DraftKings points. Then a guy like Gary Trent Jr. would be more of a GPP guy as he moves back to the bench with the starting rotation getting healthier.
5-star play: Paul George, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Gary Trent Jr.
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll be without Clint Capela in this one, while De’Andre Hunter comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding his status. I would imagine Onyeka Okongwu gets the start for Capela and has a 14.7% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Capela off of the court this season. Trae Young has at least 53 DraftKings points in three straight games and will look like a great option in a perfect matchup with a fast-paced Pacers team. Dejounte Murray is more of a tournament option for me due to the volatility in sharing usage with Young in the backcourt, but the ceiling is certainly there. Bogdan Bogdanovic is priced about right with this team being fairly healthy amongst the usage-heavy guys, so he’s probably not a guy I get to a whole lot in this one. then I have no issue with John Collins in tournaments, but we know he always comes with some volatility. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton had a rough go of it last night but gets an elite bounce-back spot against the Hawks here. I’ve been targeting guards against this Hawks backcourt all season and that won’t stop here. Myles Turner bounced back nicely last night and gets a boost with Capela out, so no issue going right back to him in this one. Buddy Hield has been much better as of late and looks like a nice option in this price range as well. Bennedict Mathurin went back to the bench last night and would expect that to be the norm, he’s more of a tournament option again here. Then the trio of Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, or Jalen Smith are all fine filler pieces in GPPs if you happened to land on them, but they’re certainly not guys I’ll be prioritizing.
5-star play: Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Onyeka Okongwu, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: John Collins, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Smith
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -7.0
Starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson has been solid since returning and saw his minutes get up to 36 last night, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Devin Vassell dropped a 50-burger last night and gets a great matchup again in this one, he’s been incredibly consistent all season long. I don’t love the price tag on Tre Jones, but he’s still a fine option if you want to get there. Jakob Poeltl looked great last night but still isn’t seeing a ton of minutes which makes him more of a tournament option for me. I do like going back to Jeremy Sochan however, he’s had at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has a really nice price tag. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a massive game against the Pelicans last time out and is going to be a guy I like quite a bit again in this one. I love attacking the Spurs with opposing point guards, so he’s going to look great. Josh Giddey had a nice game last time out and does have some meat on the bone at this price tag, he’s going to look nice as a secondary option. Lu Dort is volatile and we kind of know what we’re getting out of him making him a tournament option. Then guys like Jalen Williams and Aleksej Pokusevski will be GPP-only guys as well, outside of SGA, Giddey, and Dort it’s extremely hard to trust the minutes on the rest of the team.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Josh Giddey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Jeremy Sochan, Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jalen Williams
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -8.0
Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Devin Booker again in this one, I would expect Damion Lee to get the start for him as Landry Shamet is also out tonight. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 21.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 26.8% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Damion Lee – 15.2% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 20.5% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Josh Okogie – 19.4% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Suns which is pretty condensed tonight with how shorthanded they are. I don’t think Okogie is very good at basketball but he’s performed well in these circumstances this season and makes sense as a value option in this one. Paul and Ayton make the most sense as spend-up options and both dropped 50-burgers last time out. Lee bounced back nicely last time out as well and should continue to play all the minutes he can handle. From the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane has played 24 minutes in his first two games back, he’s not playable at this price tag until he gets his full minutes back. Ja Morant has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five and makes sense in all formats yet again here. Jaren Jackson has been a bit more volatile as of late and would probably be more of a tournament option than anything for me. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. I can’t pay this price tag for Tyus Jones, I just don’t love paying that kind of salary for a backup point guard who generally sees 20-25 minutes. I do like Steven Adams here, they’ll need his minutes against Ayton down low. Then Brandon Clarke will make sense as a tournament option, he’s been in good form as of late.
5-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Ja Morant
4-star play: Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: Josh Okogie
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Brandon Clarke
New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -4.5
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle has been in awesome form as of late and has at least 48 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The nice thing is he’s finally getting minutes in the upper-30’s like he saw his first year in New York which has been huge for his production. Jalen Brunson comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a full go in this one. RJ Barrett has been more volatile than we’re used to seeing this season, but has been better as of late and makes perfect sense here, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Then Mitchell Robinson bounced back in a big way on Christmas and will look good again here against a weaker Dallas frontcourt. Then guys like Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley are fine tournament options to round this team out. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic kept it rolling last night and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here, and makes sense in all formats. Christian Wood went bananas on the Lakers on Christmas Day, I have no problem going back to him as well as his price fell and his minutes are consistently floating around the 30 mark. Spencer Dinwiddie has been fine, I don’t see myself getting a whole lot of him on this slate with that said. Then the only other guy I’d really have interest in here is Tim Hardaway Jr., who is playing really nice minutes right now, he’s volatile, but has a nice ceiling. The minutes will be there tonight with Finney-Smith out and Kemba Walker questionable.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, Spencer Dinwiddie
Charlotte Hornets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.0
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball continues to have a better price tag on FanDuel but it did come down on DraftKings from where it was yesterday. He has at least 45 FanDuel points in five straight games and will look like an elite option yet again in this one. Gordon Hayward has been in fine form but he’s seeing all the minutes he can handle, so I like getting some exposure to him at the F position. Kelly Oubre and Terry Rozier are both fine options with Ball and Hayward back, but I would have a slight lean toward Rozier if I had to choose between them. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and PJ Washington are fine GPP options to round out the team, both guys looked good in this matchup earlier this season. From the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins again while Draymond Green comes in as probable. Draymond had a big game last time out with 26 assists/rebounds but just three points. He’ll be a fine secondary option at a nice price tag. Jordan Poole has been fine with these guys out but the price tag feels like it’s right where it should be. The same can be said for Klay Thompson who bounced back nicely on Christmas Day, the matchup looks great here as well. They got Donte DiVincenzo back last time out as well and played very well. He has a 16.6% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Then guys like Jonathan Kuminga and Kevon Looney are fine secondary options to round out the Warriors.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney
Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Den -3.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic kept his heater rolling last time out and is now AVERAGING 71.6 DraftKings points over his last five games. He’s going to look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Jamal Murray has looked great as well and the Nuggets get a +3.3 bump in pace in this matchup, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. Michael Porter Jr. supposedly was still on a minutes restriction last time out but played 35 minutes… so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a full go and looks like a solid GPP option. Porter Jr. being back hurts Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown a bit, Brown more so than Gordon who had a massive game last time out. The same can be said for Bones Hyland who probably doesn’t see much more than 20 minutes in this one. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis comes in questionable after being diagnosed with a thumb fracture… I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. I would expect Alex Len jumps into the starting lineup in his place and makes plenty of sense as a min-priced value option. Below is how the rest of this team operates with Sabonis off of the court this season:
- De’Aaron Fox – 28.8% usage rate; 1.42 fpm
- Keegan Murray – 17.0% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 18.1% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Kevin Huerter – 16.7% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Alex Len – 16.0% usage rate; 1.02 fpm (extremely small sample size)
These would be my favorite options on the slate… I do think it’s Len that jumps in the starting lineup, but I would want confirmation on that before throwing him in my lineup. Fox looks awesome here and gets a +0.17 fantasy point-per-minute bump with Sabonis out. Then guys like Murray and Barnes should see more minutes in those big wing rolls with Sabonis out as well.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox, Alex Len (if starting)
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter
Deeper Value: Alex Len
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk
NBA Lock of the Day: Tyrese Haliburton (DK – $9.0k; FD – $9.8k)
The price tag is definitely nicer on DraftKings, but he’s a great spend-up option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m hoping his game last night will keep some ownership off of him, but I think he looks great in a matchup against a bad defensive backcourt with the Hawks. I would expect this game has plenty of fantasy goodness as it comes in with a 239 implied total and Haliburton has a 29.3% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
