Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/25:
Dec 23, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) grabs a rebound against the Chicago Bulls during the fourth quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Sixers, Joel Embiid kept it rolling last time out against the Clippers and gets a nice matchup in this one, he’s going to look like an elite spend-up option in all formats. James Harden had a massive bounce-back game last time out as well and I don’t trust this Knicks defense, he’s going to look great at a nice price tag. Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton have been in good form surprisingly enough and are fine secondary options, I never really love prioritizing them when Harden and Embiid are in there, but if you fall on them you could certainly do worse. From the Knicks, Julius Randle has been in awesome form as of late and has at least 48 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The nice thing is he’s finally getting minutes in the upper-30’s like he saw his first year in New York which has been huge for his production. Jalen Brunson has been pretty meh as of late but the price tag is going to continue to look good due to the consistency he provides. RJ Barrett has been more volatile than we’re used to seeing this season, but has been better as of late and makes perfect sense here, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Then Mitchell Robinson has struggled over his last couple of games and will have his hands full with Embiid down low in this one. Then guys like Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley are fine tournament options to round this team out.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Julius Randle
4-star play: Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Mitchell Robinson, Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -8.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, I would expect to see Thomas Bryant start in his place even after getting banged up last time out. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 33.8% usage rate; 1.54 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 30.1% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 19.1% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 22.6% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. The price tag has finally caught up to Bryant on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but the matchup is nice against a Mavericks team who I’ve been targeting big men against all season long. I do think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags they’ve both produced nicely with Davis out so far. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic had an absolutely massive game last time out against the Rockets and is going to look great again here, this Lakers defense isn’t something to be afraid of. Christian Wood has been seeing much more consistent minutes as of late and will look like a fine GPP option simply due to the price tag being up. Spencer Dinwiddie has been in good form as well and I like the matchup again here, he’s a nice secondary option even after a rough game last time out. Then the only other guy I’d really have interest in here is Tim Hardaway Jr., who is playing really nice minutes right now, he’s volatile, but has a nice ceiling. The minutes will be there tonight with Finney-Smith and Kemba Walker out.
5-star play: LeBron James, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, Reggie Bullock
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
Starting with the Bucks, they’ll be without Khris Middleton again in this one and we’ve seen them flip between MarJon Beauchamp and Jevon Carter in the starting lineup. Last time out it was Carter and would be a guy I look toward as a value option, while I probably wouldn’t have much interest in Beauchamp if he started. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 38.5% usage rate; 1.69 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 25.8% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.8% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.8% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 14.7% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
Giannis and Holiday are my favorite options in a great matchup against a tougher Celtics defense. The thing I like about them is the minutes they should see in a competitive game. The Bucks are really good about limiting their main guys to lower-30’s minutes in games that don’t necessarily stay that close, but this one should be tight meaning we could see a minutes ceiling on these guys. From Boston, Jayson Tatum averaged 53.75 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Bucks last season and is going to look great as well. Jaylen Brown bounced back nicely last time out after a tough go of it against the Oacers, he’s going to look good here as well. Marcus Smart returned last time out to play 38 minutes last time out and should be a full go in this one as well, I would have no issue with him in the mid-range, but probably not a guy I’m going to prioritize. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White are fine secondary options but take a bit of a hit with Smart back in there… we do get a revenge game against the Bucks for Brogdon which is always interesting. Robert Williams has his minutes trending in the right direction playing 22 last time out and looked great in those minutes. At his current price tag, I think you can make a case for him in tournaments tonight. Then Al Horford had one of his better games of the season last time out… he shot really well from three-point range but is a guy that seems to always kill the Bucks, so I like going right back to him at this price tag.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: Robert Williams
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Robert Williams
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane returned last time out to play 24 minutes, I would think that’s his floor moving forward, but I just can’t pay this price tag for him until he gets his full minutes back. Ja Morant had a rough go of it last time out but lost a good chunk of minutes due to a blowout. He should lose some usage and production with Bane back on the court, but he’s still a solid tournament spend-up option. Jaren Jackson has been a bit more volatile as of late but bounced back in a big way last time out and would be someone I like going back to here. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. I can’t pay this price tag for Tyus Jones, I just don’t love paying that kind of salary for a backup point guard who generally sees 20-25 minutes. I do like Steven Adams here, he should do whatever he wants down low in this one. Then Brandon Clarke will make sense as a tournament option coming off of a massive game last time out and may even be the better option to Adams as he can run a bit more with a fast-paced Warriors team. Speaking of the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins again while Draymond Green comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a full-go here for the sake of this article. Jordan Poole has been fine with these guys out but the price tag feels like it’s right where it should be. The same can be said for Klay Thompson who has been held under 20 FanDuel points in two of his last four games and is probably more of a tournament option for me. They should get Donte DiVincenzo back in this one though and will be a guy I like going right back to in this one. He has a 16.6% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Then guys like Jonathan Kuminga and Kevon Looney are fine secondary options to round out the Warriors.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Den -3.5
Starting with the Suns, it sounds like Devin Booker will be good to go here and is coming off of a massive game last time out against the Pelicans. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s not limited or on any sort of minutes restriction, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for confirmation. The price tag on Chris Paul is a bit high for my liking but he does have at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last five, so the upside is certainly there. Deandre Ayton’s production has been all over the place as of late but lost minutes last time out due to a blowout… they’ll also need him to play all the minutes he can handle to hang with Jokic down low in this one. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Torrey Craig are fine wing options who don’t own a ton of usage, so they’ll be secondary options for me here. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic kept his heater rolling last time out and is now AVERAGING 70.4 DraftKings points over his last five games. He’s going to look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Jamal Murray also had a huge game last time out as well… and his price tag went down, I have no issue going right back to him here. Michael Porter Jr. returned last time out to play 27 minutes, so I would assume he’s not on any sort of minutes restriction moving forward and will look like a nice GPP option here. Porter Jr. being back probably hurts Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown a bit which would make them more of tournament option than anything for me in this one. The same can be said for Bones Hyland who probably doesn’t see much more than 20 minutes in this one.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, Bruce Brown, Bones Hyland
NBA Lock of the Day: James Harden (DK – $9.7k; FD – $9.4k)
Harden had a massive game last time out and gets a matchup with a Knicks team that seems a bit overrated to me. His price tag went down even after that big game last time out and averaged 65.08 DraftKings/62.1 FanDuel points in three games against the Knicks last season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
