Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/22:
Nov 10, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas (17) reacts after making a three point basket against the Portland Trail Blazers during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
We’ll kick off this slate with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson comes in as doubtful in this one while Jakob Poeltl is expected to play. I would anticipate Keita Bates-Diop will remain in the starting lineup in place of Johnson. Below is how this team operates with Johnson off of the court this season:
- Devin Vassell – 26.4% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
- Tre Jones – 22.7% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Jakob Poeltl – 18.7% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Jeremy Sochan – 18.5% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Keita Bates-Diop – 18.1% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
Vassell and Jones see the biggest bumps in rates which would make sense as the team’s second and third ball-handlers, both will look like good options in this one. We haven’t seen Poeltl play over 22 minutes since returning from injury, although some of that may have been due to foul trouble last time out. I would probably consider him more of a tournament option than anything on a short slate. I wish the price tag on Zach Collins was slightly lower, I’d have a bit more interest in him, but that’s what the public will think as well, so I don’t mind him as a tournament option. Then that trio in the $4k range on DraftKings of Doug McDermott, Josh Richardson, and Bates-Diop make sense as well, they should all see 20-30 minutes depending on how they’re playing. From the Pelicans, they’ll be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram while Larry Nance Jr. comes in as questionable. I was all over Jonas Valanciunas with Nance out last time out as my 8x play of the day on FanDuel, and I think we can go back to him again regardless of Nance’s status with Zion already ruled out. That being said, I would not expect him to shoot 7-10 from three-point range again considering he hadn’t made a three-pointer in his seven previous games… just a wild outlier there, but he does have massive double-double upside if he can find the minutes. CJ McCollum has been much better as of late as well, he has at least 44 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and I love attacking the Spurs with opposing guards. Trey Murphy and Herb Jones will continue to see good minutes, but both float around 0.75 fantasy points per minute on the season, so nothing to jump out of your seat about, but fine options nonetheless.
5-star play: Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Jonas Valanciunas, CJ McCollum
4-star play: Jakob Poeltl, Keita Bates-Diop, Jeremy Sochan, Zach Collins, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones
Deeper Value: Jeremy Sochan, Jose Alvarado
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Doug McDermott, Josh Richardson, Jose Alvarado
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Starting with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. He missed their last game, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He’s been in good form and has shown a great ceiling as of late and should have no issues producing against a below-average Jazz defense. Kyle Kuzma has at least 47 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is playing all the minutes he can handle right now and will also look like a nice option as well. I was a bit more bullish on Bradley Beal than most last time out and it ended up working out even on 8-20 shooting. He’ll take a bit of a hit if Kristaps comes back here, but his price remains pretty reasonable. Deni Avdija bounced back nicely last time out but is probably a bit more attributed to Kristaps being out than we’d like to see. Then Monte Morris is a fine option to round out the team, but not someone I think we need to prioritize by any means. From the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk will continue to miss time while Collin Sexton is listed as questionable after missing the last two weeks. Lauri Markkanen bounced back with a 50-burger against Detroit last time out and will be a fine option yet again, although I think he’s a bit more volatile than those Washington big men. Jordan Clarkson has been fine, although a bit more inconsistent than we saw earlier this season, but I do like the matchup. Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler are guys I both like here as well with Olynyk out. Kessler got into early foul trouble but was still able to get it done on Tuesday night and Vanderbilt had a massive game, so there’s plenty of production to go around. Then guys like Mike Conley and Malik Beasley are more secondary options than anything for me, Conley more so in cash and Beasley in tournaments.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Deni Avdija, Mike Conley, Malik Beasley
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