Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/21:
Dec 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) and guard James Harden (1) talks during a break in the third quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Bucks, they’ll be without Khris Middleton again in this one and we saw MarJon Beauchamp slide into the starting lineup last time out over Jevon Carter. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo –38.7% usage rate; 1.70 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 26.1% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.9% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.6% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 15.6% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
I don’t think I love getting to either Beauchamp or Carter simply due to how big the slate is meaning we should get some good value. Giannis and Holiday are my favorite options in this one even in a tough matchup with the Cavs. Giannis is averaging 52.6 DraftKings points per game against the Cavs this season while Holiday only played in one of the games. Portis and Lopez would be closer to tournament options than anything against this frontcourt. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell wasn’t very vengeful in his matchup with the Jazz last time out, but mostly due to playing just 23 minutes as they blew them out. I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this one. Darius Garland is in the same boat, he’s been a bit more volatile as of late, but the price tag feels fair, and would be someone I like here as well. Jarrett Allen had a big game last time out and they’ll need Allen’s size down low in this one, so he’s going to look good. The same can be said for Evan Mobley who has been extremely consistent as of late as well and is a solid secondary option. Then guys like Kevin Love and Caris LeVert are more tournament darts than anything due to the volatility they both bring to the table.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: MarJon Beauchamp
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love, Caris LeVert
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -11.5
Starting with the Pistons, they’re a bit of a mess and in a tougher matchup with this Sixers team. Bojan Bogdanovic is the highest price guy on DraftKings while Killian Hayes is $100 more on FanDuel… both guys will look fine here but we have to understand the volatility they both carry. Jalen Duren is a guy I do like quite a bit, the minutes have been trending in the right direction and he’s performed the best of their frontcourt options. He has at least 29 DraftKings points in four straight and looks great at his current price tag… hopefully he can stay out of foul trouble against Embiid down low. Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley are fine tournament options in the frontcourt too, but that’s in the case that Duren does struggle with fouls. Then guys like Saddiq Bey and Alec Burks are fine GPP options, we can throw Jaden Ivey into that group as well, he’s coming off of a great game last night and his price tag came down. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid kept it rolling last time out against the Raptors but did come down to Earth considering his recent production. That said, he should do whatever he wants in this one against this Detroit frontcourt. James Harden is another guy who kind of came down to Earth, his production has dipped in two straight games after being extremely consistent since returning from injury. That said, he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and will look good in a nice bounce-back spot. Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton have been in good form surprisingly enough and are fine secondary options, I never really love prioritizing them when Harden and Embiid are in there, but if you fall on them you could certainly do worse. Then Shake Milton is a fine dart throw, but I can’t imagine I get there much on this slate.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Jalen Duren, Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, James Harden, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks, Shake Milton
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton has at least 45 FanDuel points in three of his last five and is a solid option yet again even in a tough matchup against this Boston defense. I do like attacking that defense with opposing bigs, so I think Myles Turner looks solid at a fair price tag. Buddy Hield had a solid bounce-back game last time out and is a fine mid-range tournament option, but probably not someone I’m prioritizing by any means. Bennedict Mathurin is more of a GPP guy as well, he’s been volatile this season, but we’ve seen the ceiling and he should continue to play all the minutes he can handle. Then I can’t imagine I get much of guys like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, or Jalen Smith on a slate of this size… but they’ll get run. From the Celtics, the price on Jayson Tatum is a bit hard to swallow considering he’s been held under 50 FanDuel points in four of his last five. That said, this is an elite spot against the Pacers, so I don’t hate getting to him on this slate as a spend-up option. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, has been awesome with at least 49 DraftKings points in three of his last five and gets a similarly great matchup. We’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Marcus Smart who comes in as questionable with a non-Covid illness. If he misses, we should see a boost for guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White, while being a solid option if he plays and is a full go. Robert Williams returned to the lineup over the weekend and has played 18 minutes in both games. I don’t think I can get to him quite yet but once he starts pushing that 25-minute mark, he’s going to look great depending on the price tag. Then I guess we can round the team out with Al Horford, but he hasn’t burned me once this season, so I’ll probably just go elsewhere.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford, Robert Williams
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -1.5
Starting with the Raptors, they should get OG Anunoby back in this one after playing 40 minutes last time out, so it’s pretty clear he’s not going to be limited moving forward. He’s a strong option in a great matchup with the Knicks. Pascal Siakam bounced back in a big way last time out in a tough matchup against Embiid, I like going right back to him here against a Knicks defense that is very middle of the road. Fred VanVleet came down to Earth last time out, however, but he’s been awesome as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle. I like the matchup as well, he’s going to look great. Scottie Barnes is in the same boat, the price tag is nice on him as well. The rest of this team would be more GPP darts than anything, as Gary Trent Jr. will move back to the bench with Anunoby back in and his price tag has come up. From the Knicks, the price tag on Julius Randle continues to climb, but for good reason. He’s averaging 47.1 DraftKings points per game over his last five and will look good again here, although I don’t love the matchup against this Raptors team that is just annoying defensively. Jalen Brunson was my lock of the day last night and ended up doing fine and is a guy I think will look good again here. The price tag keeps floating around that lower-$7k range on DraftKings, so no issue going right back to him here. RJ Barrett has been more volatile than we’re used to seeing this season, but has been better as of late and makes perfect sense here. Then Mitchell Robinson continues to outproduce his price tag as well and is another guy I like going back to.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet
4-star play: OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -6.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan was fine last night, but the matchup stunk against the Heat… this one is much better and should be able to have a nice bounce back. I love attacking the Hawks with opposing guards and although DeRozan doesn’t technically qualify as a guard, he’ll look great, he dropped 63.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Then I love the price tag on Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine as well, they both looked good last time out and will make sense in all formats. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. From the Hawks, they’ll continue to be without Clint Capela here but got John Collins and Dejounte Murray back last time out. Collins played just 20 minutes, so he’s a guy I’ll wait for the minutes to come back on. Murray, on the other hand, picked up his minutes right where he left them. I would expect he’s not restricted moving forward and is a fine option in all formats again here. It only makes sense that Trae Young would have his best game in weeks with another ball handler out there, he should lose production with Murray out there making him more of a tournament option for me, but I do love the matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy who may lose some usage and opportunity with Murray back in there, but he’s still a fine option if you land on him. Then Onyeka Okongwu should start for Capela again here, he’s averaging 0.95 fantasy points per minute with Capela off of the court this season.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine
4-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Dejounte Murray, Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, De’Andre Hunter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -12.0
Starting with the Warriors, they’re going to run their B-team out there tonight as Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Donte DiVincenzo are all out. Below is how this team operates with Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 35.1% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Jonathan Kuminga – 19.7% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Moses Moody – 15.9% usage rate; 0.67 fpm
- Anthony Lamb – 12.4% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
The rest of the team that is in play tonight doesn’t have a big enough sample size to warrant throwing up there. We’ll have to wait for a starting lineup, but I would imagine Poole, Kuminga, Kevon Looney, and Draymond Green are my favorite options on this team. That being said, Green has not been in good form making him more of a tournament option. From the Nets, we get a revenge game for Kevin Durant! Obviously, he’s played the Warriors since leaving them but you’ve gotta think he still wants to play well with Curry, Klay, and Draymond in town. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will look good again in this spot. Kyrie Irving has been in great form as well with at least 44 DraftKings points in five straight and gets an elite matchup in this one. Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton are very similar to me both in price and production, I don’t mind getting to either of them in a nice matchup. Royce O’Neale is never a guy I prioritize, but he’s going to play big minutes and is a fine price tag if you happen to land on him. Then the trio of Joe Harris, Seth Curry, and TJ Warren all had awful games last time out, I would hope we get better value on this slate.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton
Deeper Value: GSW TBD depending on starting lineup
GPP Sleeper: Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Royce O’Neale, Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Por -4.0
Starting with the Blazers, Jusuf Nurkic comes in as questionable after missing their game on Monday, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding his status. If he were to sit we would likely get Drew Eubanks back in the starting lineup and would look like a nice option. Damian Lillard has been solid since returning from injury but struggled a little bit in this matchup last time out his price tag is up, so he’s more of a tournament guy but we know the upside is there. Anfernee Simons is priced a bit too high for me with Dame back in the rotation, so he’ll be more of a tournament guy. Jerami Grant bounced back nicely last time out and should continue to see all the minutes he can handle in this one, he’s a solid secondary option. Then Josh Hart has at least 31 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and makes sense in all formats here. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Josh Giddey in this one which should move Aaron Wiggins back into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Giddey off of the court this season:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 37.8% usage rate; 1.61 fpm
- Lu Dort – 21.0% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Jalen Williams – 16.9% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Aleksej Pokusevski – 20.0% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
There’s one glaring piece that looks awesome here, and it’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander… the price tag is great, the matchup is great, and the production increase he sees with Giddey out is… you guessed it, GREAT! The rest of this team is going to be hard to prioritize on a slate of this size but the matchup certainly sets up well.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nukic, Josh Hart, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Aaron Wiggins
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Aleksej Pokusevski
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -3.0
Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic had a rough go of it last time out but it was due to him getting ejected, so if people are going to see that game log and avoid him, I’ll go right back to him. Although, there could be some bad blood here as he gets the same matchup tonight. Christian Wood now has at least 30 minutes in four straight games which is going to make him look great, but the price tag is way up which will make him more of a GPP option for me. Spencer Dinwiddie has been in good form as well and I like the matchup again here, he’s a nice secondary option. Then the only other guy I’d really have interest in here is Tim Hardaway Jr., who is playing really nice minutes right now, he’s volatile, but has a nice ceiling. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while Rudy Gobert comes in as questionable again. We saw Naz Reid get the start in their last three games and has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of those… he’s going to look elite if he gets the start again here. Anthony Edwards kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 65 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaylen Nowell aren’t sexy plays by any means, but they’ve both produced nicely as of late and make sense in all formats. Then D’Angelo Russell kept it rolling last night as well and makes sense in all formats.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell
Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
Starting with the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr., Chuma Okeke, and Jalen Suggs are all out again in this one while Franz Wagner comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status. Paolo Banchero has been in good form as of late with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his previous five, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him here. Franz Wagner is fine, but not a guy I feel the need to prioritize, the matchup does look really nice, however. Moritz Wagner, on the other hand, continues to play good minutes and makes plenty of sense in the mid-range. Bol Bol is more of a GPP option due to the volatility we’ve seen from him as of late. Then guys like Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz are more tournament options than anything, but I love the matchup with this Rockets’ defense that I’ve been targeting all season, Fultz had a huge game last time out as well. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. has been fine as of late but we haven’t really seen a ceiling game in a while, the minutes will be there and the matchup is nice, so he’ll continue to be a fine secondary option. Alperen Sengun bounced back nicely last time out and will look good against this Orlando frontcourt. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., he has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last five and is solid as well. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 18.0% usage rate and 0.83 fantasy points per minute on the season. Then Eric Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and looks like a fine option as a value piece on a big slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Moritz Wagner, Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: Cole Anthony, Bol Bol, Jabari Smith Jr., Eric Gordon
Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -6.0
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, I would expect to see Thomas Bryant start in his place, and will continue to look like a good option in all formats. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 33.9% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 30.4% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 20.2% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 22.8% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I would imagine Bryant is a guy I get a bunch of on this slate on DraftKings, but he’s firmly in play on FanDuel as well. I do think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags. Westbrook ended up missing their last game and comes in as questionable here, so keep an eye on his status as we get closer to lock. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been in elite form and had a massive game last time out to keep it rolling. He now has at least 55 DraftKings points in three straight and gets a great matchup against the Davis-less Lakers frontcourt. De’Aaron Fox has been solid as well and makes plenty of sense at this price tag. Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes have been in good form and are seeing all the minutes they can handle again, the matchup is awesome, so they’ll look like great mid-range options. Malik Monk would be more of a tournament option due to the volatility he’s shown as of late but is firmly in play regardless. Then Keegan Murray will continue to see big minutes but has volatile production making him more of a tournament guy as well.
5-star play: LeBron James, Thomas Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -7.5
Starting with the Hornets, Terry Rozier comes in as doubtful here while Dennis Smith Jr. remains out. I would imagine Kelly Oubre just jumps back into the starting lineup with Rozier out. Below is how this team operates with Rozier off of the court this season:
- LaMelo Ball – 32.6% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 30.3% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 23.2% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- PJ Washington – 22.2% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Hornets, and I’m going to continue to attack that Ball price tag. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in five straight along with a 50-burger last time out. Oubre, Hayward, Washington, and Mason Plumlee make sense as secondary options as well. Then we get to the Clippers who I think I’m going to leave for the Breaking News Channel as we’re waiting on a good amount of news for them. Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, and Norman Powell all come in as questionable which makes them very hard to break down, so come hop in our VIP chat for updates!
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee
NBA Lock of the Day: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DK – $10.1k; FD – $10.4k)
Back to the Thunder! They’ll be without Josh Giddey in this one which opens up a ton of usage in this offense and I like Gilgeous-Alexander to demand it. He has a 37.8% usage rate and 1.61 fantasy points per minute with Giddey off of the court this season and gets an elite matchup with the Blazers at a fair price tag. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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