Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/15:
Dec 7, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) calls a play in the first quarter during game against Sacramento Kings at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -2.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Bucks, they’ll be without Jrue Holiday again in this one, I would imagine Jevon Carter gets the start for him again in this one, below is how they operated with him off of the court last year:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 37.5% usage rate; 1.76 fpm
- Khris Middleton – 30.4% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Jevon Carter – 11% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.3% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 16.2% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
These would be my favorite options in this one and I do expect this game to be competitive so we should see full minutes from these guys. I do think Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton are interesting tournament options due to the size of the slate. Giannis and Middleton are my favorite options, but you’re obviously going to be paying for them. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant looks awesome here he continues to look great this season and has a 36.2% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute with Desmond Bane off of the court. I like going back to Jaren Jackson Jr. as well, he’s been great since returning about a month ago and feels slightly less handsy on defense this season, he averaged 36.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks last season. Dillon Brooks will continue to be a GPP option due to the volatility on him but will continue to see a boost with Bane out. Then Steven Adams is interesting as well, they’ll need his size down low, I do think Brandon Clarke is interesting as well due to the size of this Milwaukee team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Ja Morant
4-star play: Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Jevon Carter, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks
Deeper Value: Pat Connaughton, Jevon Carter
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Brandon Clarke
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0
Starting with the Heat, they’ll be without Jimmy Butler in this one due to his knee soreness issue. Below is how this team operates with him off of the floor this season. It’s a great matchup with a bad Rockets defense, so these guys should look like strong options:
- Caleb Martin – 15.0% usage rate; 0.71 fpm
- Max Strus – 20.0% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- Kyle Lowry – 19.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Bam Adebayo – 28.2% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 28.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
It’s worth noting Victor Oladipo saw 31 minutes last night and if he’s a full go tonight here his price tag looks great on a short slate. Herro and Bam are my favorite options from this team, but they’re also the most expensive. Strus and Martin are never guys I really prioritize but we know they’ll play all the minutes they can handle and are solid mid-range options in a great matchup. Then Lowry has been in tough form, so he’d be more of a secondary guy for me. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. he’s been in fine option as of late and looks like a fine tournament option again here. It’s a tough matchup, but the price tag has come down to a much more playable price tag. Alperen Sengun has looked much better as of late as well with at least 32 DraftKings in two of his last three. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., he bounced back last time out and looks good again here, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 17.6% usage rate and 0.81 fantasy points per minute on the season. Then Eric Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and looks like a good option as a value piece here.
5-star play: Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon, Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Victor Oladipo, Jabari Smith Jr.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -1.5
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram. We may see Dyson Daniels move back to the bench with Herb Jones sliding back into the starting lineup, but I would still expect him to see good minutes. Below is how this team operates with Ingram off of the court this season:
- Zion Williamson – 29.5% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- CJ McCollum – 26.0% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 16.1% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 25.7% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Dyson Daniels – 11.7% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Herb Jones – 18.0% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
My favorite options here start with Zion, it’s a great matchup against a team who won’t have an answer for him down low. McCollum was not good as chalk last time out in this same matchup, that said, if people are going to be gun-shy on him after that game, it’s a mistake, he’s a great option again here. Guys like Murphy, Valanciunas, Jones, and Daniels would be secondary options. From the Jazz, they’ll continue to be without Collin Sexton which is negated by Mike Conley moving back into the starting lineup. Lauri Markkanen returned last time out to play 31 minutes, so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward, he’s a solid option in all formats. Jordan Clarkson has been fine, but he feels like he’s priced right about where he should be and is a secondary option. I love going back to Kelly Olynyk here, he’s getting consistent minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble which may prove to be difficult against Zion down low as we saw last time out. Malik Beasley kept it rolling even with Markkanen back last time out, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games. Then we can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt who looked awesome last time out, he may be their best option to throw on Zion defensively, so I like going right back to him here.
5-star play: Zion Williamson
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy, Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jordan Clarkson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dyson Daniels, Herb Jones, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance, Walker Kessler
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -1.5
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton come into this one as questionable, I’m going to operate under the assumption that they both play, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates closer to lock. Booker wasn’t in the best form before missing a few games, so it can feel a little dirty going right back to him, but I think he looks great here. Ayton left their last game early which is why he saw just 14 minutes but was in great form prior to those games, I have no issue going right back to him here. The price tag on Chris Paul came way up even after a down game last time out, he’s going to be more of a secondary GPP guy for me. Cameron Payne will be out for the Suns which opens up minutes for guys like Damion Lee and Landry Shamet to pick up some second-unit guard run, they’re solid value options especially if Booker misses. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Torrey Craig are both fine secondary options as well, they’ll continue to play big minutes. From the Clippers, Paul George has been much better over his last few games and is a guy I don’t mind going right back to here, his price tag hasn’t really budged even in a tougher matchup. Kawhi Leonard kept it rolling last night and now has at least 34 DraftKings points in three straight games, if he plays tonight, he’s going to look like a nice option at this price tag. Ivica Zubac left their last game early due to injury and comes in as questionable, if he misses we’ll have to keep an eye on the starting lineup, they could go small with Nic Batum or Robert Covington at center or we get a bunch of value with a guy like Moses Brown. John Wall will be out here which will secure the minutes for Reggie Jackson as well as give him more opportunities, he’s a nice option on a short slate. Lastly, Marcus Morris makes sense as a secondary option, we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Paul George
4-star play: Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson
Deeper Value: Damion Lee, Landry Shamet, Nic Batum, Robert Covington
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Marcus Morris, Nic Batum, Robert Covington
NBA Lock of the Day: -> Click Here <-
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