DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate - Dec. 13th, 2022

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/13:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: 229.5

Vegas Spread: Phi -5.5

We’ll kick off this slate with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has at least 51 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and looks awesome again here. The matchup is a bit tougher with Embiid down low, however, so may be more of a secondary option. De’Aaron Fox comes in as questionable after missing his last few games, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed. That said, his price tag has fallen too far, and will be a guy I get exposure to if he’s a full go. I do think going back to Keegan Murray is interesting as well depending on the value we get on this slate. He’s been in much better form and is seeing more consistent minutes as of late, he has at least 27 DraftKings points in four of his last five. Malik Monk has struggled with Fox out and would be more of a GPP guy for me moving forward, he’s going to continue to see 20-25 minutes. Davion Mitchell has started the last two games for Fox and would likely do so again if he’s forced to miss. He’s not a huge per-minute guy, so this is about as high as I’d like the price, but the minutes will be there. Then guys like Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes are solid secondary options, both have been in good form relative to their salaries. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been great with at least 55 FanDuel points in four in four straight games and will look great again in this one. James Harden has kept it rolling since returning from injury, and he’s playing all the minutes he can handle, the price tag is up, but for good reason. Tobias Harris isn’t a guy I love with Harden and Embiid back, but the price tag has come down and makes sense as a secondary option. Then guys like Shake Milton and De’Anthony Melton are not really in play for me with Harden back in there at their current price tags.

5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden

4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Kevin Heurter, Tobias Harris

 Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Shake Milton, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris

Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!

Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Total: 233.0

Vegas Spread: Mil -4.0

Starting with the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Andrew Wiggins while Draymond Green comes in as probable. I would expect Jordan Poole starts in place of Wiggins in his return home to Milwaukee tonight. He’s been much better as a starter this season but will have to fight for usage and shots with the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so he’ll be more of a secondary option for me. That said, he has at least 31 DraftKings points in five straight, so it’s hard to ignore that kind of production. Steph Curry is going to look like a solid option but struggled with the Bucks last season averaging just 30.13 DraftKings points per game in two games. Klay Thompson has attempted at least 21 shots in four straight games and is in great form, I have no issue going right back to him here, but the Bucks have been much better at allowing opposing three’s this season. They’re actually in the top five in least allowed per game on the season. Then guys like Draymond Green and Kevon Looney are fine options as well, they’ll need the size against a much bigger Bucks team. Speaking of the Bucks, Jrue Holiday comes in as questionable with a non-Covid illness, while Khris Middleton is probably after leaving their last game early with an ankle injury. Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 58.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Warriors last season and looks like a top spend-up option on the slate if we can find the salary for him. I touched on Middleton, but the price tag is too cheap on him, he’s not going to be on any sort of minutes restriction moving forward, he’s an elite option in a game that should stay close and fast-paced. That’s the big thing I like about Giannis here, he hasn’t been seeing upper-30’s minutes in games they’re winning with ease, but in a competitive game, we could see him get an extra five or so minutes which helps that ceiling quite a bit. Brook Lopez has returned to Earth over his last couple of games, but I like going right back to him and Bobby Portis at their lower price tags against a smaller Warriors frontcourt. Then we can round this team out with Grayson Allen as a secondary option.

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

4-star play: Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kevon Looney, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen

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Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -6.0

Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Devin Booker in this one as he deals with some hamstring soreness. I would expect we see a similar lineup as last game where they run a big lineup with Dario Saric starting in his place. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:

• Chris Paul – 19.6% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
• Mikal Bridges – 18.9% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
• Cameron Payne – 32.1% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
• Deandre Ayton – 23.4% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
• Torrey Craig – 12.9% usage rate; 0.79 fpm

The issue with Booker being out is outside of Paul, there isn’t a guy that’s going to eat up a bunch of usage unless they throw Cam Payne in there next to Paul which I don’t think they want to do. Damion Lee did see 34 minutes last time out so he’s a good candidate to see good run in this one again and will look like a great value option with SG/SF eligibility on DraftKings, just SG on FanDuel. Ayton has at least 49 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and should do whatever he wants against this Rockets frontcourt. Then Paul seems to be back up to his full minutes and will look like a great option in a revenge game here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. had a solid bounce-back game against the Bucks last time out and looks like a fine tournament option again here. It’s a tough matchup, but the price tag has come down to a much more playable price tag. Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in the best form and gets a tough matchup, but he’s another guy where the price is coming down, he’s a nice tournament option with good upside. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., he bounced back last time out and looks good again here, he has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 17.8% usage rate and 0.81 fantasy points per minute on the season. Then Eric Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and looks like a good option as a value piece here.

5-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton

4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, Damion Lee, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green

Deeper Value: Damion Lee

GPP Sleeper: Dario Saric, Eric Gordon, Jabari Smith Jr.

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New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 234.0

Vegas Spread: Nop -2.0

Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll continue to be without Brandon Ingram while Herb Jones comes in as probable. We may see Dyson Daniels move back to the bench with Jones back, but I would still expect him to see good minutes. Below is how this team operates with Ingram off of the court this season:

• Zion Williamson – 29.2% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
• CJ McCollum – 26.0% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
• Trey Murphy – 16.3% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
• Jonas Valanciunas – 25.2% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
• Dyson Daniels – 12.1% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
• Herb Jones – 19% usage rate; 0.86 fpm

My favorite options here start with Zion, it’s a great matchup against a team who won’t have an answer for him down low. McCollum had a really nice bounce-back game last time out against the Suns and would be a guy I go right back to in this one and the price tag is really nice. Guys like Murphy, Valanciunas, Jones, and Daniels would be secondary options. From the Jazz, they’ll continue to be without Collin Sexton which is negated by Mike Conley moving back into the starting lineup. Lauri Markkanen has missed their last few games but should return here and makes sense as a tournament option here. Jordan Clarkson has been fine, but he feels like he’s priced right about where he should be and is a secondary option. I love going back to Kelly Olynyk here, he’s getting consistent minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble which may prove to be difficult against Zion down low. Malik Beasley is another guy getting more consistent run but that was likely due to Markkanen being out, so I would expect his minutes to come down a bit. I’m going to jump right off the Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Talen Horton-Tucker train at their current price tags as well. Then we can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt who has a path to more minutes if any of the frontcourt struggles with containing Zion.

5-star play: Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum

4-star play: Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Dyson Daniels, Jonas Valanciunas, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt

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Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers

Vegas Total: 235.0

Vegas Spread: Bos -4.0

Starting with the Celtics, they’ll be without Al Horford in this one so I would expect we see Blake Griffin back in the starting lineup while Grant Williams may see some extra minutes as well. I would hope we get better value open up than these two guys, but keep them in mind regardless. Jaylen Brown came down to Earth last night but has still been in elite form, I have no issue going right back to him in a nice matchup tonight. Malcolm Brogdon has been good as well, but his minutes are going to be volatile when this backcourt is healthy and active. Maybe he sees more minutes if they move Brown and Tatum up a position with Horford out at times, but he’s more of a tournament option than anything here. Jayson Tatum continues to lead the team with a 32.6% usage rate and 1.30 fantasy points per minute, I have no problem with him as a spend-up option as well but he’s been held under 40 FanDuel points in three straight games. We can round the team out with Marcus Smart who is a fine secondary option as well, he’s been in great form. From the Lakers, LeBron James has looked great and I think he’s slightly underpriced, he’s a nice option in all formats even in a tougher matchup with Boston. Anthony Davis has been playing at a ridiculous level, he has a 30.7% usage rate and 1.83 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks, I have no issue riding the heater out with him. Russell Westbrook came back to Earth last time out and is going to be a volatile option any time both James and Davis are healthy, so he’s a tournament guy again in this one. Dennis Schroder makes sense as a value option but will have to fight for shots and usage with those other three main guys. Then a guy like Lonnie Walker is a good secondary option, but not someone I’m forcing in.

5-star play: Anthony Davis

4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, LeBron James

Deeper Value: Dennis Schroder, Blake Griffin

GPP Sleeper: Blake Griffin, Grant Williams, Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, Lonnie Walker

I need to give VIP Member “TTG2436” a massive shoutout for his $100k takedown earlier in the season, congrats man! Our NBA Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like  Love  or Dislike  a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the NBA Research Station to really take your game to the next level.

NBA Lock of the Day: Khris Middleton (DK – $6.0k; FD – $6.9k)

I will say, I like Middleton’s price more on DraftKings, but he’s still too cheap on FanDuel… his DraftKings price tag is just wrong. I don’t expect him to be limited moving forward, the only reason he didn’t see many minutes last time out is due to leaving early with an ankle tweak. He had a 26.3% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute last season and could even see a boost tonight with Jrue Holiday coming in as questionable. You won’t see those kinds of rates for a guy that’s going to see 30+ minutes anywhere in his current price range. Not to mention, he averaged 41.38 DraftKings/40.15 FanDuel points per game in two games against the Warriors last season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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