Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/12:
Dec 8, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) celebrates during the second half after scoring a three point basket against the Denver Nuggets at Moda Center. The Nuggets won the game 121-120. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -5.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Nets, they’ll be without Royce O’Neale while Nicolas Claxton comes in as questionable but is expected to play. The O’Neale status doesn’t open up a bunch of usage, but the minutes will certainly be there. Ben Simmons will return here after playing 21 minutes on Friday night, I would anticipate that’s his floor in this one and will be a fine GPP option, he did look good in short run. Kevin Durant has been much better as of late and is averaging 57.3 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets this season, he’s going to look like a great spend-up option yet again in this one. Kyrie Irving has been in better form over his last couple of games as well and gets a similarly elite matchup against this Wizards’ defense. Nicolas Claxton is probably more of a secondary GPP option for me now that he’s expected to play, I just want to see him out there and not be limited before I get too carried away with rostering him. Then Joe Harris, TJ Warren, and Seth Curry are solid GPP options with O’Neale out, they should split the 30-ish minutes that O’Neale would normally see. I think at least one of these guys will have a big night, but it’s going to be difficult to determine who it will be. From the Wizards, it’s been a week since Bradley Beal was going to be re-evaluated, so today’s the day… although I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again here. I would anticipate Corey Kispert slides back into the starting lineup with Beal sidelined. Below is how the rest of the team operates with Beal off of the court this season:
- Kyle Kuzma – 30.9% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Will Barton – 19.3% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 30.8% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Monte Morris – 17.8% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 16.8% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
These would be my favorite options, I got a bunch of Kuzma and Avdija last night and that may be the case again in this one. Avdija has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games and his price tag hasn’t budged. Kuzma, Avdija, and Porzingis will be my main pieces from the Wizards yet again. Keep an eye on Monte Morris as well, as he comes in questionable.
***The below assumes Beal is OUT***
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: Monte Morris, Deni Avdija
Deeper Value: Joe Harris, TJ Warren, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton, Joe Harris, TJ Warren, Seth Curry
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.0
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler has been solid since returning from injury and gets an elite matchup against a bad defense here, he’s a great option in all formats. Bam Adebayo is coming off of a bit of a stinker against the Spurs last time out. I don’t love the price tag on either DraftKings or FanDuel, but again, the matchup is great here. Tyler Herro continues to roll and scored 46.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season, that game didn’t involve Butler, but it’s notable at the least. Kyle Lowry has kept it rolling as well, but feels just a hair overpriced to me… we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle, however. Then guys like Caleb Martin and Max Strus are fine secondary mid-range options in a good matchup, but not guys that I’ll be prioritizing by any means. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton has at least 58 DraftKings points in two of his last three, but I don’t love the matchup. That said, the price tag never seemingly moves on him, so he’s a nice option. Myles Turner draws a tough matchup with Bam down low and has been held under 25 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Bennedict Mathurin will continue to be a tournament option here, it’s really nice to see the minutes be more consistent but his production has still been volatile. The same can be said for Jalen Smith, but he’s kind of the opposite, he doesn’t quite see the minutes but his production is great when he’s out there.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.0
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray for the next few weeks after getting injured last time out. I would expect to see AJ Griffin stick around in the starting lineup with De’Andre Hunter back in there as well. Below is how this team operates with Murray and John Collins off of the court this season:
- Trae Young – 41.8% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Jalen Johnson – 12.2% usage rate; 0.67 fpm
- AJ Griffin – 21.2% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Clint Capela – 16.1% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Bogdan Bogdanovic – 30.4% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
For whatever reason, the Hawks started Trent Forrest at SG over guys like Jarrett Culver and Jalen Johnson last time out, I don’t think he’s a great NBA player but he’s near min price and will be viable here. The price tag on Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t moved and he now has at least 38 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and clearly isn’t limited any longer. I will say, his price is much better on DraftKings than it is on FanDuel. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant and Steven Adams come in as questionable, so we’ll really need some news on this one. I’ll operate under the assumption they play, but if they sit it’ll change the whole slate, so stay tuned to the Breaking News Feed. The matchup for Ja looks great here, I love attacking this Trae Young-led backcourt with opposing guards, Morant should do whatever he wants here. I like going back to Jaren Jackson Jr. as well, he’s been great since returning about a month ago and feels slightly less handsy on defense this season. Dillon Brooks will continue to be a GPP option due to the volatility on him but will continue to see a boost with Bane out. Then we can take a closer look at Tyus Jones and Brandon Clarke if Morant and Adams end up missing.
5-star play: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Ja Morant
4-star play: AJ Griffin, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Deeper Value: Trent Forrest
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Johnson, Trent Forrest, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -8.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look great even after a down game last time out but dropped 63.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, he’s going to look like a nice spend-up option yet again. Josh Giddey has been in good form with at least 34 FanDuel points in four of his last five and is in a similar boat where I wouldn’t have any issues with taking a flyer on him in tournaments. Lu Dort is fine, but he feels like he’s priced right where he should be and is volatile. Then the rest of this team is tough for me to prioritize or get any real exposure to outside of GPPs. They’re doing weird stuff with the lineup outside of these main three guys such as switching up the starting lineup in the second half of games and randomly pulling minutes. That said, guys like Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Jalen Williams are fine GPP options in this one. SGA, Giddey, and Dort are pretty much the only guys we know who are going to see their minutes. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic continued his elite form last time out and dropped 71 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season, so SGA and Luka have both had success in this matchup. Doncic is going to look like a great spend-up as well in all formats. Christian Wood bounced back nicely last time out and is consistently seeing minutes in the upper-20’s again, he’s a nice GPP option at the very least. Spencer Dinwiddie is a fine option, but on a nice-sized slate, I’m not sure how much I’ll get to him at this price range. Tim Hardaway Jr. has come down to Earth over his last two being held under 20 FanDuel points after looking good for about a week, he’ll be more of a tournament guy moving forward.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jalen Williams, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.5
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell comes in as questionable after missing their last few games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a full go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Darius Garland hasn’t been in great form even with Mitchell off of the court recently. I’ll have interest in both of them in this matchup due to how bad this Spurs’ defense is, but Garland would obviously see a boost if Mitchell is forced to miss again. Jarrett Allen bounced back nicely last time out and will look like a strong option yet again in this one. I can’t say I love the price tag on Evan Mobley, but the production as of late warrants it, he’s more of a secondary option for me. Then we can round this team out with Caris LeVert who has at least 35 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His price tag has come up, but if Mitchell is forced to miss again, he’d still be too cheap, but if Mitchell plays LeVert would be a dart throw at best. From the Spurs, they’ll continue to be without Jakob Poeltl and Keita Bates-Diop again in this one. We should see Zach Collins continue to start for Poeltl again, but it’s a tough matchup with Allen and Mobley in this one. He’s more of a tournament option for me, but it’s nice to see him get closer to that 30-minute range even with foul trouble as of late. Keldon Johnson has been solid as of late but feels like he’s priced right about where he should be and would be more of a secondary option for me. Devin Vassell returned last time out and looked fine, but he’s been extremely consistent this season, so I wouldn’t have an issue with him in all formats again here. The price on Tre Jones is way up, and his production hasn’t been the most consistent, he’s going to be a secondary guy as well. Lastly, Jeremy Sochan comes in as questionable after missing the last couple of weeks, I don’t expect to get a ton of him if he plays but if he’s forced to miss it would secure minutes for Collins and the rest of these guys.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Devin Vassell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love, Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Por -4.0
Starting with the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns for the next few weeks. Anthony Edwards will be a guy I go right back to, he sees a nice bump in his rates with Towns out… he has a 29.3% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season. He bounced back nicely last time out after getting banged up against the Jazz. Rudy Gobert is a guy I’ve been all over as of late and he’s been in MUCH better form with at least 39 DraftKings points in three straight, I’ll go right back to him at this price tag again here. I do like D’Angelo Russell as well, he’s been extremely consistent as of late with at least 32 FanDuel points in nine straight games, and gets an elite matchup here. Jaylen Nowell finally had a down game and his minutes are trending in the wrong direction, he’ll probably be a guy I’ll be underweight on here. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels will see a boost with Towns out as well, Anderson is your cash guy and will start for Towns while McDaniels is a bit more volatile. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 54 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s going to look great in all formats yet again in this one. Anfernee Simons is priced a bit too high for me with Dame back in the rotation, so he’ll be more of a tournament guy. Jerami Grant continues to look great and play all the minutes he can handle, he’s a nice option in all formats. Jusuf Nurkic continues to play great as well with at least 41 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. It’s a tougher matchup with Gobert down low, but I think we can go right back to the well with him here. Josh Hart comes in as probable, he will look like a nice mid-range option to round out the slate.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Damian Lillard
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaylen Nowell, Jaden McDaniels, Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -3.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Celtics, they’ll be without Al Horford in this one so I would expect we see Grant Williams back in the starting lineup while Blake Griffin may see some extra minutes as well. I would hope we get better value open up than these two guys, but keep them in mind regardless. Jaylen Brown is in unreal form right now with at least 42 FanDuel points in five straight games, he’s going to be a great option yet again here. Malcolm Brogdon has been good as well, but his minutes are going to be volatile when this backcourt is healthy and active. Maybe he sees more minutes if they move Brown and Tatum up a position with Horford out at times, but he’s more of a tournament option than anything here. Jayson Tatum continues to lead the team with a 32.8% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute, I have no problem with him as a spend-up option as well but he’s been held under 40 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. We can round the team out with Marcus Smart who is a fine secondary option as well, he’s been in great form. From the Clippers, Paul George has been much better over his last two games and is a guy I don’t mind going right back to here, his price tag hasn’t really budged. Kawhi Leonard just feels overpriced relative to his production, I’ll wait for that price to come down or the production to come up on him. Ivica Zubac is interesting at the very least, we’ve seen a massive ceiling from him this season, but we’ve seen him be volatile as well as we saw last time out. John Wall started in place of Reggie Jackson who missed their last game, but I would expect him to move back to the bench here, both Jackson and Wall look more like tournament options than anything. Lastly, Marcus Morris makes sense as a secondary option, we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Paul George
4-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris
Deeper Value: Blake Griffin
GPP Sleeper: Grant Williams, Blake Griffin, Malcolm Brogdon, Ivica Zubac, Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, Reggie Jackson
NBA Lock of the Day: Deni Avdija (DK – $4.9k; FD – $5.5k)
Assuming Bradley Beal is out again tonight, I’m going right back to the well with Deni Avdija. His price tag hasn’t moved and he’s been in great form with at least 29 FanDuel/30 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle with at least 39 in each of those three games and has a 16.8% usage rate and 0.87 fantasy points per minute with Beal off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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