Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/11:
Dec 9, 2022; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) brings the ball up court against the Brooklyn Nets during the first quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has at least 51 DraftKings points in three straight games and looks awesome again here. The Knicks haven’t played any sort of defense this season and this game has a nice implied total and spread. De’Aaron Fox comes in as questionable after missing his last game, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed. That said, his price tag has fallen too far, and will be a guy I get exposure to if he’s a full go. I do think going back to Keegan Murray is interesting as well depending on the value we get on this slate. He’s been in much better form and is seeing more consistent minutes as of late. He’s another guy who comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to make sure he’s a go before going back to him. Malik Monk struggled big time last time out even with Fox ruled out, he’s more of a GPP option regardless of the status of Fox. Davion Mitchell got the start for Fox last time out and would be a solid value option if Fox is forced to sit again in this one. Then guys like Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes are solid secondary options, both have been in good form relative to their salaries. From the Knicks, Julius Randle kept it rolling last time out and is starting to see those high 30’s minutes again which we’ve been missing for most of the season. He has at least 49 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a guy I’m going right back to in an elite spot against the Kings here. I like going back to the well on Jalen Brunson as well, he hasn’t looked great over his last few games but the price tag has dropped to a price where he’s hard to ignore. RJ Barrett is probably more of a tournament guy for me due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season, but I have no issue with him here if you want to make a case for him he had a nice game last time out. Then guys like Mitchell Robinson and Immanuel Quickley will be GPP options, although Robinson is another guy that feels slightly underpriced in a great matchup with this Kings team.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Immanuel Quickley
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -7.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam has looked much better over his last couple of games with at least 51 FanDuel points in three of his last four and is playing awesome this season with a 30.0% usage rate and 1.41 fantasy points per minute. OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet are solid secondary options as well, but again, they’re not going to look quite as good with Siakam and Barnes back. The game logs probably won’t impress you much either, but there’s a lot of meat on the bone at these prices, Anunoby comes in questionable, so make sure he’s a full go before lock. Scottie Barnes came down to Earth last time out in this same matchup, but the minutes will be there and the price tag is fair, so I have no issue going right back to him here. Then Gary Trent Jr. will be a secondary tournament option regardless, the price tag has come down on him and he’s in solid form. From the Magic, they’ll continue to be without Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., and Chuma Okeke in this one while Mo Bamba returned last time out but seems to have been passed in the rotation by Wagner brother number two, Moritz. Wagner has at least 40 FanDuel points in two of his last three games and has seen at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony have seen their minutes fluctuate but have the ability to get to the 30-minute range if they’re playing well. People were burned by Fultz last time out as he gained some steam on their last slate, but you need to understand these guys are going to be volatile along with the rest of this team… that said, I do think Fultz is too cheap yet again. Paolo Banchero has looked much better as of late and his price tag is back at a playable level, he’s a fine tournament option here but it’s not my favorite matchup. Bol Bol has been extremely volatile as of late, I’ll leave him in GPPs for now until that consistency comes back. Then Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option, he hasn’t been in the best form either. This Orlando team is just extremely deep with guys you can make a case for but not really anyone outside of maybe Fultz that we want to make a priority.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Markelle Fultz
4-star play: OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Moritz Wagner
Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -10.5
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. below is how this team operates with them off of the court this season:
- Jalen McDaniels – 17.2% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- PJ Washington – 22.5% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Terry Rozier – 30.0% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Kelly Oubre Jr. – 27.5% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
Mason Plumlee has been in good form as well with at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five. Rozier will play all the minutes he can handle, and has been in good form with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last five and would be a guy I go right back to here as well. I don’t fully trust this Sixers’ defense quite yet and think some of these guys can get us there. Speaking of the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been great with at least 55 FanDuel points in four of his last five and will look great again in this one. James Harden was a guy I was all over before the Donovan Mitchell news came out last slate which caused me to pivot off of Harden as a core to get to some Garland… which ended up burning me, but I’ll go right back to him here in an elite spot. Tobias Harris has been sneaky good lately as well with at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five but I do expect that to come down a bit with Harden back in there. Then guys like Shake Milton and De’Anthony Melton are not really in play for me with Harden back in there at their current price tags.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Kelly Oubre Jr., Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, Shake Milton, De’Anthony Melton
Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -5.5
Starting with the Lakers, LeBron James has looked great and I think he’s slightly underpriced, he’s a nice option in all formats and gets an elite matchup with this Pistons’ defense. Anthony Davis has been playing at a ridiculous level, he has a 29.9% usage rate and 1.76 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks, I have no issue riding the heater out with him. Russell Westbrook had a big game last time out even with James and Davis back, I don’t really want to chase him, but he’s a fine GPP option. Dennis Schroder makes sense as a value option but will have to fight for shots and usage with those other three main guys. Then a guy like Lonnie Walker is a good secondary option, but not someone I’m forcing in. From the Pistons, Killian Hayes came crashing down to Earth last time out due to some foul issues but has been in great form, he’s going to continue to start for Cade Cunningham and is a solid secondary option. Bojan Bogdanovic hasn’t been in the best form since being ejected a couple of games ago, but we know the upside is there, he’s a great option. Jaden Ivey is more of a tournament option due to the volatility we’ve seen from him this season. He has a 27.0% usage rate and 0.75 fantasy points per minute with Cade off of the court this season, but man he’s been terrible. The minutes for Marvin Bagley will likely continue to be volatile but he’s a nice per-minute producer when he’s out there and the price tag isn’t all that bad on him. I don’t love the matchup, however. Then guys like Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Alec Burks are fine secondary tournament options as well.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: Dennis Schroder
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker, Marvin Bagley, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Alec Burks
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.0
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan has looked great over his last couple of games and this Atlanta defense is not good, he’s a good option in all formats at a fair price tag. I do like going right back to the well with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic at their respective price tags, however. Vucevic kept it rolling last time out while LaVine played just 27 minutes due to blowing out the Mavs, so I’m going to overlook that game. Outside of the main three, there isn’t a ton I like from this team other than the obligatory Andre Drummond mention at a sub-$4k price tag on DraftKings. He got his minutes up to 18 last time out, partially due to blowout, but he’s a fine dart throw. From the Hawks, they’ll be without Dejounte Murray for the next few weeks after getting injured last time out. I would expect to see AJ Griffin stick around in the starting lineup with De’Andre Hunter approaching a comeback as well. Below is how this team operates with Murray and John Collins off of the court this season:
- Trae Young – 44.3% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
- Jalen Johnson – 12.5% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- AJ Griffin – 21.4% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Clint Capela – 16.6% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
I don’t have Bogdan Bogdanovic listed above due to the sample size he has, but he had a massive game last time out and played 34 minutes after we were told he’d still be limited… that clearly wasn’t the case. His shooting positively regressed in a big way after going a combined 5-20 from three-point range over his previous two games. I wouldn’t expect him to start, but the minutes will clearly be there for him off of the bench.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic
4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, AJ Griffin, Clint Capela, Jalen Johnson
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond, Jalen Johnson
GPP Sleeper: Andre Drummond, De’Andre Hunter
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -10.0
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to look great here and will be one of the top spend-up options on the slate. He struggled with foul trouble last time out but gets an elite bounce-back spot against a weak Rockets frontcourt here. Khris Middleton should continue to see 30+ minutes going forward and feels too cheap here, he’s going to be a strong option in all formats as people still wait for that ceiling game from him. I’ve been all over Jrue Holiday as of late and he’s been great with at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, he’d be a great option again in this one, although the price tag is starting to come up. Bobby Portis will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility in his minutes but has been a great per-minute guy when given the opportunity this season and has shown some consistent production as of late even after a down game over his last couple. Brook Lopez will continue to be a sneaky center option as well, he’s been extremely consistent this season and always has the upside to get hot from the three-point line to get himself a ceiling game. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. ended up playing last time out after being a game-time decision… but I’ll use playing loosely, as he did not look good against a bad Spurs team. I like going back to him here in tournaments at the very least, however. Alperen Sengun bounced back nicely last time out and tried to ruin Zach Collins’ life with a massive dunk… you can find it on Twitter, it was pretty wild. That said, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jalen Green is similar to Porter Jr., he struggled last time out but I still like going back to him in this one. Jabari Smith Jr. has shown some volatility on the season, which is to be expected from a rookie, but he has a 17.9% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute on the season. Tari Eason has been great with at least 21 DraftKings points in three straight games. Don’t expect him to see a ton of minutes, but he’s a great per-minute producer. Then Eric Gordon should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and looks like a good option as a value piece here.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green
Deeper Value: Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, Eric Gordon
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