10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

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Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Dak Prescott – 22.24 FD pts: 3.0x value

Sam Darnold – 13.2 FD pts: 2x value

Desmond Ridder – 7.68 FD pts: 1.2x value

Rex Burkhead –  2.7 FD pts: 0.6x value  

Jerick McKinnon – 30.2 FD pts: 4.9x value (#1 RB on the slate)

Devonta Smith– 15.1 FD pts: 2.1x value

Mike Evans 10.8 FD pts: 1.6x value

Elijah Moore – 7.4 FD pts: 1.3x value

Gerald Everett – 6.2FD pts: 1.1x value

Kansas City Chiefs– 3 FD pts: 0.6x value

Feels good to smash last week with Jet McKinnon going off as the number one RB play! Especially since I paired him in lineups with Derrick Henry because of the price savings I got and almost all of my lineups had the 1 and 2 RB’s on the slate.

Dak Prescott smashed again, but our punt RB’s didn’t quite work out. Speaking of punts, last week was another example that when there aren’t any stud TE’s on the slate (and even if there is) you should almost always be punting the TE spot.

The Eagles WR’s took a big hit for the upcoming weeks with Jalen Hurts being hurt, but last week again showed what a special talent Devonta Smith is. Smashed on 1/3 the targets of AJ Brown reinforcing my belief that outside of volume, he’s the best receiver in that offense.

Remember, DFS is always a process. What worked two seasons ago, doesn’t work now, and what works now, likely won’t next year. We need to constantly adjust our process and be willing to learn. There is no magic code. There is no ‘trick’ to winning. There is no secret. You do the same things every week, you take stands, you learn from your mistakes, celebrate your wins, and keep grinding, because that really is the ONLY way to be successful at DFS long term.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $7500/FD $7800

This ownership is ridiculous…do people forget that Fields is a stud? Buffalo is not the same defense they were in years past, yes they are good, but they are going to struggle to contain Fields.

He’s smashed every single week since week 7 and I expect him to continue to use his legs here to get yards. The weather will be cold, and I think that really suits him as he will be forced to just tuck it and run more. This game has pop off potential and I think the Bears smash their team total of 15 behind a big performance by Fields.

No reason to stack him with anyone. He can get there by himself. Run it back with Diggs or Davis.

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $7000

One of the few games on the slate without much for weather issues. Goff tends to struggle away from home, but I think this spot is too good to pass up. The Panthers are trash and Goff has been throwing the ball more, averaging 38 pass attempts over his last four, just hasn’t been rewarded with any TD luck.

The big concern is obviously the 48 running back committee (seriously confuses me), but I really think you just go over the field on Goff and pair him with sun god, Amon Ra St. Brown and move on. The lineups you can build are pretty sexy.

Dak Prescott QB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 7%/FD 8%

Salary: DK $6100/FD $7500

Was all over Dak last week and I’m going right back here even though the matchup is tougher against the Eagles elite secondary. One of only two games played in a dome this week so will have no weather issues and that alone is enough to get me excited but the salary/ownership combination here puts me over the moon.

Has been fairly consistent this year even though the Cowboys have run the ball more than in past seasons. Was able to throw for 3 TD’s last week but again the turnovers killed him.

Noah Brown was the guy last week but one would expect we see a bit more CeeDee Lamb in this matchup, or potentially Dalton Schultz gets back in the mix if the guys on the outside get shut down.

Yahoo DFS NFL Strategy for Week 16 | Picks, Tips, and Podcast for Winning Lineups

Joe Mixon RB Cincinatti Bengals 

Ownership: DK 7.5%/FD 12.5%

Salary: DK $6900/FD $7500

Mixon is one of the more elite RB’s on the slate and while the matchup against the Pats isn’t great he should get a ton of volume here with the weather looking cold and snowy.

Since his 4 TD outburst against the Panthers, he hasn’t found the end zone since and is due. On a weird slate I don’t mind banking on good backs regardless of matchup and we saw Jacobs have a nice day here last week.

6 targets last week which makes him a really strong PPR play on Dk as well.

Alvin Kamara RB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $6800/FD $7400

At some point Kamara is going to go off and in a cold game where each team will run the ball a million times, I can see him having a real nice day here. Ownership is super low and so is his price on both sites. He should be a massive part of the game plan this week, but if we know anything about the Saints it’s that they will probably let Taysom Hill try to throw the ball to himself and then kick the extra point too.

Inept coaching notwithstanding, I do like the leverage we get on the field here with Kamara. Betting on good RB’s even in bad spots is better than chasing bad RB’s in good ones.

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Devonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 7%/FD 7%

Salary: DK $6600/FD $7600

Smith is a stud. He’s better than AJ Brown. There. I said it.

That’s what I said about Smith last week and it’s still true. Brown had a big game on a ton of volume while Smith had a big game on smaller volume.

With Gardner Minshew we may see the target share between Smith and Brown get a little more even, and potentially even lean Smith’s way as Minshew isn’t afraid to let it rip and Smith is a great deep ball guy. The Cowboys are a good defense but they aren’t great in the secondary (even when Diggs is healthy, he’s a playmaker, not a play stopper) and I expect Smith should be able to exploit this.

This is one of the few games this week without any sort of weather issues and I’m going to be all over it, even with Hurts ruled out.

Gabe Davis WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6400

Bears Secondary? Bad. Bears secondary on deep balls? Even badder (I realize that’s not a word but I’m using it so deal with it.). Davis can absolutely smash at low ownership.

His matchup against Jaylon Jones is one of the best individual matchups on the slate. He’s going to torch him. Been a while since we’ve seen a big Davis game and we could potentially see one in this game. Multiple TD’s are well within the range of outcomes and that would guarantee him in the nuts.

Brandin Cooks WR Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $4900/FD $6500

Cooks is back in the lineup for the first time since week 12 and gets a prime matchup against the Titans who have on of the worst secondaries in the league. Nico Collins looks to still be out so he’s really only competing with Chris Moore for targets here. Cooks is a MASSIVE upgrade over Moore. Was already seeing a huge target share before getting hurt andc I expect to the continue here.

I never feel good about playing WR’s with bad QB’s but this is a smash spot for Cooks even with Giraffe Mills throwing him the ball.

Chig Okonkwo TE Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $5400

This feels a bit chasey, but I keep coming back to Okonkwo, even with Willis at the helm for the Titans.

Has caught three passes in 4 straight games, and Willis loves him as a big target. They utilize him as a WR1 really in this offense. On a slate with a bunch of low totals I hate paying up for TE and Okonkwo is right in the middle here. Gets enough volume that he doesn’t kill you if he doesn’t score a TD and if he does he’s probably a top 3 TE scorer.

Washington Commanders DST (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $2400/FD $3700

The Brock Purdy Mr. Irrelevant story has been fun, but it’s now time for Mr. Irrelevant to meet Mr. Young. Chase Young makes his return to the lineup here and I expect him to make an immediate impact, improving the pass rush tremendously.

The Niners still have CMC and all of these weapons but I expect we see a regression to the mean at some point from Purdy and potentially a few turnovers here.

Lots of low totals on the slate here and tons of good defenses to choose from. Not sure you can go wrong. Defense really is a crap shoot and you just need a TD (or no one to get a TD) and because it’s a crap shoot I don’t mind just taking the most viable cheap one, which the Commanders are.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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