10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

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Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Tyler Huntley – 6.62 FD pts: 0.9x value

Sam Darnold – 11.8 FD pts: 1.8x value

Geno Smith – 22.56 FD pts: 2.9x value

Nick Chubb –  6.9 FD pts: 0.8x value  

Ezekiel Elliott – 15.6  FD pts: 1.9x value

DJ Chark – 18.4 FD pts: 3.5x value

Isaiah McKenzie 4.3 FD pts: 0.8x value

Tyler Lockett- 14.5 FD pts: 1.9x value

Mark Andrews – 2.7 FD pts: 0.4x value

Baltimore Ravens – 11 FD pts: 2.7x value

While we have had some good weeks with this article (this past one not being one of them outside of DJ Chark), I think the biggest thing that I’ve learned is that the one place to NOT get cute is at QB unless that QB has a set of legs. Highly owned QB’s are almost always good chalk and while we do have times when the low owned QB with rushing upside doesn’t work out (Looking at you Marcus Mariota) for the most part, the upside of them at low ownership outweighs the downside of their low floor.

Places we can almost always go with the lower owned play though is at WR because for every Isaiah McKenzie dud we have a DJ Chark smash. TE is another spot we safely take random stabs as well (though I stand by the Andrews play).

DFS is always a process. What worked two seasons ago, doesn’t work now, and what works now, likely won’t next year. We need to constantly adjust our process and be willing to learn. There is no magic code. There is no ‘trick’ to winning. There is no secret. You do the same things every week, you take stands, you learn from your mistakes, celebrate your wins, and keep grinding, because that really is the ONLY way to be successful at DFS long term.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Dak Prescott QB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $6200/FD $7500

As I said above, we need to just eat the chalk sometimes on these good QB’s, and that’s true this week with someone like Jalen Hurts and potentially even Patrick Mahomes, but when we get a good QB at a cheap price and low ownership we want to jump all over it.

Prescott hasn’t had huge weeks lately because of his RB’s going off, but that is going to change at some point and I think this spot against a mediocre Jags secondary but decent run D is the time for him to go off. Still throwing it a ton, 39 times last week, just not getting rewarded with the TD’s to blast his score to the top of GPP’s.

Pair with Ceedee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, or Michael Gallup. You could feasibly play him with Pollard/Zeke but the whole point of playing Prescott as your QB is because you are getting leverage off the Cowboys RB chalk.

Sam Darnold QB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5100/FD $6060

As I said last week, you don’t come to this article for me to tell you to play Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts. We know those guys are great plays and their ownership reflects that. What you guys want is the sneaky under 5% owned QB that can help you take down a tourney and I’m going right back to the well this week with Sam Darnold.

The passing yards in his two starts are not great but as he gets more comfortable starting again I think we see that number go up, especially against the trash Steelers secondary. DJ Moore continues to be a chalky play so why not pair him up with his QB and look for them to go absolutely off.

Also, Darnold can run. I know he doesn’t look like it but the guy can scramble. 30 yards last week which gives him a nice little floor if the passing game doesn’t go nuts and he is always dangerous near the goal line for a QB sneak.

Desmond Ridder QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6500

Welcome to the NFL Desmond Ridder! He gets his first NFL start this week on the road against the Saints who are a pretty decent defense.

Look this is a super punt play banking on a guy with no NFL experience. He’s got the skill set to be really good in the NFL, crushed in college, good passer, can take off and run, there’s lots of upside here and at 1% owned I don’t mind throwing a few darts on him and hoping he blows up.

Pair him with Drake London or Cordarrelle Patterson and get all the tuddies in this game (though that literally could be 1).

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Damien Harris RB New England Patriots

NOTE: DAMIEN HARRIS IS OUT!!!! I’M PIVOTING TO REX BURKHEAD

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5800/FD $6500

My guess is that Rhamondre Stevenson is out this week and when he does this ownership will jump but I don’t think he gets over 10% even though this is a smash spot for RB’s.

Harris has been practicing and looks healthy out there. Guy is a legitimately good player. Raiders suck. Can score TD’s and Mac can’t throw them. Big day incoming.

Jerick McKinnon RB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6200

Jet smashed last week and while people will be clamoring to play Isiah Pacheco here, I think McKinnon is the better play, even off a ceiling game last week.

HUGE PPR upside on DK. Less rushes than Pacheco but was much more efficient in his touches. I think going forward they are going to get McKinnon the ball more especially as we head towards the playoffs. I will say that there’s the possibility that we get MORE Pacheco if the Chiefs get up big here or it could be the opposite with McKinnon. Who knows what Andy Reid will do, but I’m putting my money, especially on a PPR site like DK on McKinnon.

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Devonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $6400/FD $7200

Smith is a stud. He’s better than AJ Brown. There. I said it. Honestly it doesn’t matter who is better because they both get a similar workload in this offense. Smith has benefited by teams paying more attention to Brown though and looked to double team or bracket him.

Bears suck. Sorry Bobby. Eagles might win by 40 here if their defense can stymy Justin Fields so we probably need Smith to score early but 100 and a TD are absolutely in play here and at this price that would smash value. Play him stacked with Hurts, solo, or even stacked with Fields.

Mike Evans WR Tampa Bay Buccaneeers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $6200/FD $6900

Mike Evans role hasn’t changed. His QB hasn’t changed. Yet his price has, and it’s much lower due to a lack of recent production and creates a very intriguing buy low situation.

He tied Godwin in targets last week but just wasn’t able to get some of the jump balls/deep balls as Brady has struggled a touch. If he can bring in at least one he’s going to be in for a big game, two and he’s in for a massive one, and that’s without a TD. Cincy is mediocre against the pass and this game should shoot out.

Elijah Moore WR New York Jets

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $3600/FD $5600

Went from asking to be traded, getting healthy scratched, to leading the team in targets last week! Elite matchup against the Lions. Super cheap, only concern is that Mike White is now out, but I think we see Sack Wilson sling it here trying to win his job back and that bodes well for Moore.

Gerald Everett TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 7%

Salary: DK $4300/FD $5600

Everyone loves Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this week and rightfully so as when they are both healthy they are one of the best WR duo’s in the league and get a prime matchup against the Titans and their mediocre at best secondary. There’s another pass catcher though in this offense that won’t be near high enough owned, particularly on DK at his price point and that’s my boy Gerald Everett. 

8 targets last week, 6 the week before. NO TD’s. He’s due positive regression in that category as he hasn’t actually caught one playing Houston way back in week 4. He’s an athletic freak so if he can get a catch down by the goal line he can get in the end zone. Herbert likes him as seen by his target share and there’s literally no one else at the TE position to catch the ball in this offense, I mean I guess there’s someone named Stone Smartt which absolutely cannot be a real name and he doesn’t scare me. o

On a week where there aren’t a lot of great TE options I love Everett as a TD dependent upside play.

Kansas City Chiefs DST (vs. Houston Texans)

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 7%

Salary: DK $4000/FD $5000

No one wants to pay up for the top priced defense and we’re going to see the Chiefs in an absolutely juicy matchup against the Texans be half the ownership that they should be.

There is plenty of value on the slate so don’t feel like you have to pay down here. The Chiefs will get up early and the Texans will have to rely on Davis Mills arm to stay in the game. Massive massive potential here. 5-6 sacks, a couple turnovers and potentially a TD are all in play here.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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