Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 9:
Oct 30, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs against the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
SPECIAL OFFER: Get 10% off your monthly VIP membership at DFSArmy.com with coupon code MADNESS at checkout! Our VIP’s are already crushing it this season, check out Rapidfire’s MILLION DOLLAR WINNING lineup below!
-> SPECIAL 10% DISCOUNT <-
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week nine of the NFL season with the Packers heading into Detroit as they try and take advantage in a must-win game after dropping four straight. The offense as a whole looked a lot better to me last week against Buffalo and in a great matchup with this Lions’ defense, I think they’re firmly in play as a full stack. They finally committed to giving Aaron Jones touches last week and he had a massive week and now has at least 22 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. I have no issue including him in your stack with Aaron Rodgers and a receiver in this spot. Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, he’s going to look great at this price tag and we know he’s going to throw the ball, he has at least 30 pass attempts in every game, but one this season. Romeo Doubs leads the team with a 17.3% target share but Allen Lazard has been great in each game he’s played this season, so if he’s active, which it seems like he will be, he’s a strong option. I think we need to keep an eye on the status of Christian Watson as well, he was ruled out with a concussion very early in that Buffalo game after returning from his hamstring injury. It was pretty clear they had a bunch of plays drawn up for him and would make for an interesting flyer option if he’s active. Then Robert Tonyan makes sense as a value tight-end option as well. From the Lions, they traded away TJ Hockenson which should open up even more target volume for Amon-Ra St. Brown, but this Packers team has been sneaky good against the pass on the season. I want to take advantage of this run game with D’Andre Swift if he’s active and/or Jamaal Williams as the Packers rank 31st against the run on the season. Guys like Brock Wright and Josh Reynolds are interesting dart throws as value options with Hockenson out, but I’m not sure we need to get there on this slate.
5-star plays: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams (if Swift is inactive)
4-star plays: Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP Note: I like the Packers’ stack here, but don’t see myself getting to the Lions due to the Packers’ pass defense.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Chargers, it sounds like they’ll be without Keenan Allen again as well as Mike Williams who was already ruled out. That will open up Joshua Palmer, Deandre Carter, and Gerald Everett as the main down-field passing options. It does help cheapen this stack if you want to go with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and one of these guys to round it out. I do like including Ekeler in my Chargers stacks due to his pass-catching ability, but he’ll look good as a one-off as well with at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and gets an elite matchup with this Falcons defense. Speaking of the Falcons, Cordarrelle Patterson returned to practice on Wednesday and was activated from IR, but we’ll still need to make sure he’s a go here. If he’s a full go, he makes plenty of sense against this Chargers defense that ranks 23rd against the run on the season. I have a hard time getting to this passing game due to the volume that they let Marcus Mariota sling it. He ranks 24th in the league in pass attempts and seems unable to get stars like Drake London and Kyle Pitts the ball, so no real interest in this side of the game for me unless you want to take a flyer on one of these guys.
5-star plays: Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Justin Herbert, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson (if he’s a full go)
GPP Note: I don’t mind some shots on the Chargers stack even with Allen and Williams out.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Raiders, this offense was putrid last week scoring zero points and not really having any sort of DFS production anywhere. That being said, I do think we can go back to them here, I don’t think I want to full stack, however. Derek Carr hasn’t been great since about week three and I would rather find the money to get up to a guy like Aaron Rodgers in a similar pricing tier. Davante Adams leads the pass-catchers with a 27.1% target share on the season and would be my preferred option in the passing game. He was battling an illness last week which may have been why he was so unproductive or it was Carr’s inability to get him the ball, regardless, I have no issue going right back to him here. Outside of Adams, I don’t have a ton of interest in the passing game unless Darren Waller is a full go, he would look like a nice tight-end option at this price tag. Then we get to the running game where Josh Jacobs came crashing down to Earth with the rest of the offense but still has at least 33 DraftKings points in three of his last four. From the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t shown me a consistent enough ceiling to have a ton of interest in going to a Jags stack here. That said, the Raiders rank 29th in DVOA and 31st against the pass, so I don’t hate getting some exposure if you’re MME’ing. His top pass-catching option is Christian Kirk with a 21.9% target share on the season and would really be the only guy I have interest in unless you want to take a flyer on Zay Jones or Marvin Jones. Evan Engram is interesting at the tight-end position as well for a cheap price tag. Then I have no issue going back to Travis Etienne in all formats, the guy is crushing right now with at least 22 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and has the backfield to himself with James Robinson traded to the Jets.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Travis Etienne
4-star plays: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Mack Hollins, Darren Waller, Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
GPP Note: I don’t think I’m fully stacking either of these teams with any real exposure, but don’t hate either side in 150-max contests.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS , as he took home $1,000,000 cash on a FanDuel main slate. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa had a big week last week along with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill who he’s hyper-targeting this season. They combined for 23 targets which lead to a combined 294 yards and two touchdowns. Between the two of them, they accounted for 77% of Tua’s yardage which is why I have no issue going back to Tua and these two this week simply because we know where the ball is going when he’s throwing the ball. That said, it’s extremely expensive to jam those three in, so you may want to substitute Mike Gesicki in there to save some salary. He has at least 7 targets or a touchdown in three straight weeks and I don’t trust this Bears’ defense after shipping Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn out of town. Raheem Mostert will look great out of the backfield as well with Chase Edmonds out of town. They did get Jeff Wilson Jr. from the Niners for some insurance but I wouldn’t imagine he takes a big impact in his first week with the team. From the Bears, they went and got Justin Fields a new weapon in Chase Claypool who I probably don’t want this week until he starts to get a hang of the playbook, but at the end of the day, he can run a go route which at least draws some attention off of Darnell Mooney. Mooney would be my preferred option in a similar price range. Justin Fields has been competent over the past couple of weeks with at least 24 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, much of that due to his success on the ground, so I’d probably just rather run him naked… but Mooney is an interesting pairing at the very least. David Montgomery dominated the backfield with a 70% snap share last week, however, Khalil Herbert still saw 16 touches, so it’s pretty clear he’s going to touch the ball when he’s in there. Montgomery is my preferred option between the two, but I doubt I get much of either of them.
5-star plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
4-star plays: Raheem Mostert, Mike Gesicki, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, David Montgomery
GPP Note: I have no issue going right back to the Dolphins in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game is UGLY with the lowest implied total on the week, so we can probably make up some time in this one. Starting with the Colts, we’re not stacking this team and I wasn’t a huge fan of the Sam Ehlinger chalk last week either. Now his price is up and I just don’t see a reason to go there. Michael Pittman is a fine one-off option as Ehlinger did look his way nine times last week and we know the ceiling is there with him. Then the only other guy I’ll have interest in from the Colts is pretty obviously Jonathan Taylor. He hasn’t practiced yet this week, but I would imagine he doesn’t need to practice all that much in order to be active. The price tag has come down, so if he’s out there, I’ll have an interest. From the Patriots, if you want to stack up this Mac Jones lead offense, be my guest, but make sure to send me a H2H first! I just don’t see the upside with this passing game. Jakobi Meyers is a fine one-off option however, Jones was targeting him heavily before getting injured and he saw another 13 targets with him back last week, I like him quite a bit. Then we get to this backfield which Rhamondre Stevenson seems to be running away with. He handled 63% of the snaps and just looks like the better running back, he’d be my preferred option between the two and it’s not all that close.
5-star plays: Jonathan Taylor, Jakobi Meyers
4-star plays: Michael Pittman, Rhamondre Stevenson
GPP Note: This game stinks.
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Panthers, P.J. Walker and the crew put up a fight against the Falcons last week but weren’t able to come away with a win. I don’t see a season to want to lead a stack with Walker, but I do have some interest in going right back to DJ Moore who has looked much better as of late. He has at least 7 targets in five straight games and at least 10 in three of those. The price tag is nice and the upside is clearly there. Chubba Hubbard returned to practice in limited fashion on Wednesday which is big news, if he returns this week we likely need to jump off of the D’Onta Foreman train. Foreman passes the eye test for me and had a massive week going for 31.8 FanDuel points including three touchdowns. If Hubbard is out, I have no issue going right back to him here. From the Bengals, they threw a dud up against the Browns on Monday Night Football, but they helped me walk away with some cash on the showdown slate (see below). That said, I do like this spot as a bounce-back spot for them and this offense. The Panthers rank 27th against the pass on the season, so Joe Burrow and his pass-catchers should be able to do whatever they want. It’ll be the Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd show again as Ja’Marr Chase will continue to miss with an injury. I like going right back to these two in this spot. Joe Mixon is interesting in the backfield as well, we really haven’t seen a ceiling game from him yet this season, but continues to put up games that don’t kill you. I like taking a shot at him here as well.
5-star plays: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, DJ Moore
4-star plays: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, D’Onta Foreman (if Hubbard is OUT)
GPP Note: The Bengals’ stack looks pretty strong in this one.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 9!
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins and this offense continue to look strong and I would have no issue going back to them here. However, this Commanders defense is a lot better than they get credit for, and maybe getting Chase Young back soon. Justin Jefferson is the guy you’d want to pair Cousins with for obvious reasons, he leads the team with a massive 26.7% target share and would be a guy I go right back to in this one. Adam Thielen would be more of a secondary option, as we really haven’t seen that ceiling game from him quite yet. The Vikings did acquire TJ Hockenson at the deadline, but much like a lot of these trade deadline moves, I don’t expect an immediate impact this week. Then I have no issue going right back to Dalvin Cook who has at least 26 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. From the Commanders, Taylor Heinicke really hasn’t been all that terrible when it comes to DFS production. I don’t think I want to play him or stack around him, but he’s competent enough to get the ball to his playmakers. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel both make sense as one-off options here, Samuel leads the team with a 20.9% target share on the season. It seemed like they were going to transition to Brian Robinson Jr. in the backfield but Antonio Gibson is just too good with the ball in his hands to keep off of the field and would be my preferred option of these two.
5-star plays: Justin Jefferson
4-star plays: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking either of these teams but I wouldn’t talk you off of the Vikings.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Bills, you can pretty much always make a case for Josh Allen and this offense. This week is no different, they’ll look great again. The Packers’ defense was able to hold him to just 218 yards but he was still able to put up a solid enough game. I like going right back to the well with him paired with any of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and even Dawson Knox. Diggs easily leads the team with a 26.9% target share and would be the top option, but he comes with a hefty price tag. Devin Singletary is solid out of the backfield as well. They did acquire Nyheim Hines, but I wouldn’t expect a lot of work for him right away. Singletary’s handling a 75% snap share and has pass-catching upside as well. From the Jets, I don’t see a ton of reasons to go to this offense, there isn’t anyone that’s consistently putting up good numbers, and this Bills defense ranks 4th in DVOA. I guess you could make a case for Garrett Wilson, but that’s about it, none of Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, or Denzel Mims are getting enough looks to warrant playing here.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
4-star plays: Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox
GPP Note: The Bills are firmly in play here… the Jets are not.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game comes in with the highest implied total on the week, so we should be able to find some DFS gold here. Starting with Seattle, Geno Smith continues to look solid but we haven’t seen a ceiling game since that shootout in Detroit which may prove to be an outlier. I have no doubts that he’s a good real-life quarterback, but I don’t think I want to stack around him in DFS. He’s doing a great job of getting Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf the ball, however. They both have at least a 24% target share and have been good options all season, I have no problem going right back to the well with either of them. Then Kenneth Walker in the backfield continues to look great. He’s going to operate as the workhorse for the rest of the season and looks like a solid play again here, however, the Cardinals are a better-than-average run defense. Speaking of the Cardinals, can you tell Kyler Murray missed Deandre Hopkins while he was out? Hopkins has 27 targets over the past two weeks and would be a guy I go back to here in a high-paced game. The Murray/Hopkins pairing will likely be popular this week, but for good reason, they look great here. Rondale Moore looked explosive as well, I wonder if they start to script some more plays for him with the lack of run game they have and get him some short passes in space. Zach Ertz has been hurt by Hopkins coming back as well with just 9 targets over his last two games, I don’t think I’ll want to go back to him at this price tag, there are some better options for cheaper. James Conner practiced in limited fashion on Wednesday, but I think I’ll just stay away from this backfield until they find some consistency.
5-star plays: Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins
4-star plays: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, Rondale Moore
GPP Note: I like the Cardinals side of this game more just because of the quarterback, but there are playable options on both sides of this one.
NFL season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members have had some massive wins already this season and are ready to keep it going! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in the most popular fantasy sport there is.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with two of the more disappointing teams in football. Starting with the Rams, they just can’t seem to get anything going on offense and this Bucs’ defense is extremely good ranking 5th in DVOA on the season. We will need to keep an eye on the injury report as we get closer to Sunday as Cooper Kupp is a pretty firm questionable at this point in the week. If he plays, he’s obviously a guy you can get to in all formats and would easily be my favorite option on the team. I do have some interest in Tyler Higbee as well, he’s shown a nice ceiling this season and if Kupp is banged up he could see a few more targets at a cheap price point. Then the backfield is a mess with Darrell Henderson being unproductive and the Rams being unable to trade Cam Akers. It does sound like Akers has returned to the team, but it’s just a situation that I’ll stay away from. From the Bucs, they’ve at least been able to support multiple fantasy options but I doubt I’ll get a stack centered around Tom Brady. I would like his pass-catchers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin more as one-off options personally. They’ve both provided some nice consistency and are getting plenty of targets. Then Leonard Fournette may struggle against this Rams front, but they’re not afraid to pepper him with dump-offs and work that receiving game, so I wouldn’t have a problem going back to him here either.
5-star plays: Cooper Kupp
4-star plays: Tyler Higbee, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette
GPP Note: Both of these offenses are struggling right now, no real interest in either side outside of one-offs.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your NFL DFS game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your NFL membership each and every month!
–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–
