The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!
Nov 27, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) eludes a tackle attempt by Seattle Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (10) during the third quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Truth be told, this was one of the uglier builds we’ve seen win a large field GPP this year but in designing lineups to win a large field GPP like the Milly Maker, you often look silly until you don’t… or as ‘The Geek’ would say, “Yeah I’ll get a little silly for the Milly. Speaking of Geek, watch his breakdown HERE of DFS Army VIP placing second in the Milly Maker for Week 12!
| Week 12 Milly Maker Winner | Points |
| Kyler Murray | 26.24 |
| Josh Jacobs | 51.3 |
| James Conner | 25 |
| Chris Godwin | 32 |
| Zay Jones | 30.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | 26.4 |
| Mark Andrews | 11 |
| Treylon Burks | 17 |
| Jets DEF | 8 |
| Total Points | 227.44 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtC8x63U2mY[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Kyler Murray 26.24 + James Conner 25
Secondary Stacks: Zay Jones 30.50 + Mark Andrews 11
Garrett Wilson 26.40 + New York Jets 8
Total Stacking Points: 127.14
Total Stacking Ownership: 78.26%
In regard to the primary stack, stacking a Quarterback with a Running Back doesn’t correlate nearly as well as a pass catcher from the wide receiver or tight end position, but in this case, it worked because Conner got a receiving Touchdown from Murray.
Conner was in a fantastic matchup, however, and Murray was impressive in his first game back. between Murray and Conner, the two combined for 427 all-purpose yards.
The secondary stacks here weren’t essential to this lineup winning the contest, but the better lesson is that we continue to see 1-2 small secondary stacks in weeks when the scoring is down across the board.
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| WEEK 12 Milly Maker Winner | Ownership |
| Kyler Murray | 6.95% |
| Josh Jacobs | 3.54% |
| James Conner | 10.40% |
| Chris Godwin | 8.75% |
| Zay Jones | 4.52% |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.80% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.40% |
| Treylon Burks | 13.13% |
| Jets DEF | 24.19% |
| Total Points | 103.68% |
103% ownership is the 2nd time in as many weeks when we’ve seen a contrarian lineup construction. We had a big run where the chalk smashed, and average ownership was over 150% for an entire month of the season but the last 2 weeks have been in line with what we normally see from winning builds – a combined total ownership of 84.55%
When you have mega chalk plays fail like 54% owned Jeff Wilson, the results will be more contrarian like this one.
Top Leverage Plays
Jacobs at 3.54%
Jacobs was in a smash spot all week until he injured his calf during practice late in the week and was questionable to play. This caused a lot of the field to move off of Jacobs and he then became one of the lowest owned plays on the entire slate. He showed the calf was fine when got a career high 33 carries for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Easily the top leverage play on the slate.
Zay Jones at 4.52%
Nobody in the industry was really on Zay Jones this week, but as a way to get different from a salary and ownership perspective off of Kirk and Andrews, Zay ended up paying off and being a fantastic leverage play at WR with the number two overall score.
Kyler Murray at 6.95%
Kyler was leverage off of 14% owned Geno, 10% owned Mahomes, 15% owned Burrow, and 13% owned Tua.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 12 Milly Maker Winner | Pricing | FPTS Per Dollar |
| Kyler Murray | $6,800 | 3.85X |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,700 | 6.66X |
| James Conner | $6,600 | 3.78X |
| Chris Godwin | $6,000 | 5.33X |
| Zay Jones | $4,600 | 6.63X |
| Garrett Wilson | $4,300 | 6.13X |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | 1.69X |
| Treylon Burks | $4,200 | 4.04X |
| Jets DEF | $3,300 | 2.42X |
| Total Points | $50,000 | 4.54X |
The thing that stands out the most here is 3 players priced in the 4k range that hit a mind-boggling total of 73.9 points for three players of that salary in the same lineup and this was good for an average of 5.6X their salary. Most lineup will have 1, maybe 2 Value plays at RB or WR, but it’s very rare that you see three players at that salary all hit in the same week. They’re priced at 4K because generally they’re very volatile, high variance players and the 3-leg parlay for those 3 to all hit is definitely some tough odds. That Payout though!
Ceiling
Are we seeing a regression to the mean? The first couple of months of the NFL Season brought a lot of high scores and thus thicker stacks, but in the past month or so, we’ve seen a decline in GPP winning scoring.
The past 3 weeks we have an average winning score of 221 points, which brings the seasonal average to 243 points. 243 points is the average that we saw in scoring during the 2020 season and 2021 followed that up with a 233 average. The reason why we want to know those averages is because they play a big part in lineup construction.
In weeks when the score is low, the skinny stacks are in as they were this week when a DFS Army VIP placed top 2 for the 2nd time in the Milly Maker this year!
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