Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/9:
Nov 7, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) celebrates a three point basket in the second quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -7.0
We’ll kick off this massive slate with a game that will only be on the FanDuel main slate, as DraftKings chose to keep their normal lock time. Starting with the Mavericks, they’ll be without Christian Wood in this one which opens up minutes and usage in that second unit. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the main benefit of Wood being out this season as he’s seen a +7.1% usage rate and +0.18 fantasy points per minute, he’s going to look like a nice option in this one. In terms of who will fill Wood’s minutes, I would imagine it’s mostly Maxi Kleber who will look like a fine value as well Outside of that whole situation, it’s really just Luka Doncic on this team for me. He continues to play well with at least 56 FanDuel points in eight straight games and gets a great matchup in this one. Then Spencer Dinwiddie is a fine option, but not a guy I’m all that thrilled about on a big slate. From the Magic, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Paolo Banchero as he comes in questionable, but for now, I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays. Banchero has looked good as of late as well with at least 44 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. I can’t say I love the price tag on Wendell Carter Jr. however, he’s only hit 5x this price tag once this season. Franz Wagner seems like a better option but is still priced about where he should be. I would expect Bol Bol continues to continue to start and looks like a nice tournament option at the very least. He’s been a bit volatile, but I love the upside with him. Then we can round this team out with Jalen Suggs who’s playing huge minutes right now and is a guy I don’t mind getting back to, but not sure how much I’ll get here on a big slate.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr. Maxi Kleber, Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol
Deeper Value: Maxi Kelber
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Bol Bol
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Portland Trailblazers @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard returned from injury last time out and played 35 minutes which was good to see. He didn’t look great in those minutes, but it’s pretty clear he won’t be restricted moving forward. Anfernee Simons’ price tag is fine here, but he’s going to lose about 3.3% in usage according to his season rates with Lillard on the court. Jusuf Nurkic should be able to crush this Charlotte frontcourt, but he has some massive home/road splits this season which probably isn’t something I care too much about, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on moving forward. Then guys like Jerami Grant and Josh Hart will continue to play big minutes and are solid secondary pieces as well. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward will be out again in this one. Terry Rozier had a 26.4% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with these other guys off of the court last season and looks good again here with all the minutes he’s playing. Kelly Oubre Jr. is a fine option, but he hasn’t been great lately and he’s priced as if he has been. PJ Washington has at least 34 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is another guy that looks fine, but on a big slate, I’m not sure how much I need to get there. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels are in play as MME options, but we can probably do better on this slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, Terry Rozier
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jalen McDaniels
Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Den -5.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look great here, the Pacers have a terrible defense, but Turner is a good individual defender. Jokic will be up there as one of the top spend-up options on the slate. Michael Porter Jr. has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see as of late, but did bounce back nicely last time out and we know the ceiling is there with him if he gets hot from the field, I love the matchup as well if you want to take a shot in GPPs. Jamal Murray got his minutes right back after they came down in their blowout against the Spurs in game one. His price tag feels about right on this slate, so probably not someone I’ll get a ton of. Then guys like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown all make sense as mid-range GPP options if you land on them as a filler option. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton has at least 47 FanDuel points in four of his last five games and has looked great this season. Buddy Hield continues to cook as well, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight games. I do like him slightly more on DraftKings where you get the three-point bonus, but I wouldn’t have an issue with him on either site. Bennedict Mathurin is a fine GPP option but has shown some volatility as of late which may be enough to keep me off of him on a big slate. Then Myles Turner had a massive game last time out which will happen when he’s knocking his shots down, I have no issue going right back to him here. They’ll need as many minutes as they can give him to help on Jokic in the post.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bennedict Mathurin
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -11.5
Starting with the Pistons, the price on Cade Cunningham has come down again, but he had a nice bounceback game last time out and we’ve seen him throw up some big ceiling games recently. Jaden Ivey had a massive game last time out but I wouldn’t count on five combined steals and blocks again. Bojan Bogdanovic is more of a GPP guy as well due to his scoring dependency, he’s been held under 20 DraftKings points in three straight games. Isaiah Stewart has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and feels slightly underpriced in this spot. Then Saddiq Bey has at least 31 DraftKings points in four of his last five but is one of the more volatile guys in the league making him another tournament-only guy. From the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to be a great option in all formats, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Jaylen Brown will continue to be a tournament option for me due to the scoring dependency he has, but I do like the matchup with this Pistons team. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like they’re starting to hit their stride a bit. Derrick White has been held under 21 DraftKings points in seven straight and Malcolm Brogdon has been the better producer with at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last five, even in just 19 minutes last time out he was able to get 27 DraftKings points.
5-star play: Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, Jaylen Brown
Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -9.0
Starting with the Rockets, they got Jabari Smith Jr. back last game but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction, so I’m not sure I want to go to him in this one. Kevin Porter Jr. bounced back nicely last time out, I don’t love the matchup in a -3.7 pace down spot. Jalen Green was right there with him in that game, it was his first nice performance since the middle of October. I do think we can go right back to Alperen Sengun though, he has at least 44 DraftKings points in two of his last three and is a great per-minute option. Then guys like Eric Gordon and Tari Eason are dart throw plays, Eason has looked good as of late but will likely take a hit with Smith Jr. back. From the Raptors, they’ll continue to be without Pascal Siakam I would anticipate Christian Koloko continues to start but came crashing down to Earth last time out. He’s not really a guy I would be thrilled to get to even at his price tag. I’d rather get a guy like Chris Boucher or Precious Achiuwa off of the bench, but I’m not even sure how much we can trust them either with the minutes we saw them get last time out. Below is how this team operated with Siakam off of the court last season:
- OG Anunoby – 23.2% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 19.7% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Gary Trent Jr – 23.4% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Fred VanVleet – 26.5% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
These are my favorite options which may seem obvious but sprinkle Boucher and Achiuwa in there as well. VanVleet has at least 19 field-goal attempts in back-to-back games since returning from injury.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.
Deeper Value: Christian Koloko
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa
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Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.5
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen owns a 24.2% usage rate to go along with a team-high 1.21 fantasy points per minute. He’ll look solid again in this one. Jordan Clarkson has looked great as of late as well with at least 36 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Collin Sexton may be my preferred option, however. He’s floating around 30 minutes per game lately and just seems too cheap at the moment. Kelly Olynyk has been pretty volatile to start the season, he would be more of a GPP option for me. Mike Conley will always be a secondary type of guy for me and is someone I’ll have no issue with if you land on him, but not a priority by any means. From the Hawks, Trae Young comes in as questionable after missing their last game, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but if he does get ruled out, we’ll have it broken down for you in that Breaking News Feed. Dejounte Murray has looked great regardless with at least 57 FanDuel points in three straight games. John Collins showed his volatility over their last couple of games and would be a GPP-only guy for me due to that volatility we know he has. Clint Capela came down to Earth last time out but still has a solid ceiling, so I don’t hate making a case for him in tournaments. Then we can round the team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out.
5-star play: Trae Young
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Mike Conley, John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -2.5
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle is a fine option and we saw him have a nice game last time out. I like targeting big men against this Nets team as well. I don’t see myself getting to a whole lot of Jalen Brunson this season, both sites have done really well at pricing him appropriately and it really hasn’t moved a bunch since the start of the season, but he’s a fine secondary option coming off of a nice couple of games. RJ Barrett has at least 34 DraftKings points in five straight and is slowly starting to shoot better. Mitchell Robinson missed their last game and seems like he’s going to miss again in this one meaning Isaiah Hartenstein should benefit again. We actually didn’t get Hartenstein in the starting lineup last time out which really hurt his minutes and now his price has come up. I’ll probably only go back to the well on him if he’s back in that starting lineup. From the Nets, Ben Simmons came off of the bench last time out to play 16 minutes and it wouldn’t surprise me to see something similar to that again until he’s fully healthy, who knows how long that will be, but for now, I don’t think we can get to him at this price tag unless he’s starting. Kevin Durant is a guy I’ll go right back to even after a couple of down games lately. He had a 36.7% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie and Harden off of the court last season. Nic Claxton is a pretty easy breakdown for me, if Simmons plays, fade him. If Simmons is out, we can go right back to the well as he soaks up that closing five spot. That said, they did close with Claxton last time out with Simmons off of the bench, so if Simmons does come off of the bench again I think we can go right back to Claxton. Joe Harris finally broke out last game and now has at least 31 minutes in back-to-back games, he’ll look like a solid value option, especially in GPPs. I’ll probably continue to hold off on Seth Curry until he gets his minutes back, he hasn’t played over 20 yet this season.
5-star play: Kevin Durant
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Nic Claxton, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: Joe Harris, Obi Toppin
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein, Obi Toppin, Joe Harris
New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -1.5
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram has returned for them and isn’t being restricted one bit and will continue moving forward. That said, I touched on it late last week, but with these main three guys all healthy, I don’t think we need to force guys who are appropriately priced like Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram… I do think we can make a case for Jonas Valanciunas in GPPs simply due to his ceiling, but that’s about it from this team for me on a massive slate. Zion did show a nice upside game last time out as well if you want to take a stab at him in some GPPs now that his price is coming down a bit. From the Bulls, they’re VERY similar to the Pelicans, when their main three of Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all healthy and active, it makes it very hard for me to want to get to any of them on a big slate. When they’re all active DeRozan leads the team with a 27.4% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute, but it’s not that different between the three, so if you want exposure to this team I would just take the cheapest of the three options at move on. Then I suppose we could make a case for Ayo Dosunmo, but again, just not sure how much I’ll get to him on this slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Ayo Dosunmo
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Bucks, it sounds like they’ll be without Jrue Holiday in this one as he comes in as doubtful. Below is how this team operated with Holiday, Middleton, and Connaughton off of the court last season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 37.2% usage rate; 1.92 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 24.4% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 20.4% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- George Hill – 16.0% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Jevon Carter – 15.1% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
I would expect the starting backcourt to be Hill and Carter who will both look like fine values on this slate, but I would hope we get some better value that opens up, neither of these guys is great per minute. I do have an interest in going right back to Giannis however. It’s a great matchup and there isn’t anyone in that Thunder frontcourt that can handle him in the interior. From the Thunder, Aleksej Pokusevski comes in as questionable so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for news regarding him, but I would assume he slides right back into the starting lineup in this one. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bounced back in a big way last time out against Detroit after struggling against this Milwaukee team last week. He does get a bit of a defensive boost in this one with Jrue Holiday being ruled out, however. That being said, he still does lose about 2.7% in usage and 0.22 points per minute with Giddey on the court. I like his price tag on DraftKings much more than his FanDuel price where he’s $700 more expensive. Speaking of Josh Giddey, he hasn’t exactly been great since returning from injury, I’ll likely just wait for him to prove it to me before I go back to him… but the price tag is intriguing. Then Lu Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl make sense as secondary pieces in all formats at their respective price tags.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Bobby Portis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aleksej Pokusevski
Deeper Value: George Hill, Jevon Carter
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Jordan Nwora, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -2.0
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. We should continue to see Torrey Craig start at PF with Cam Johnson out as well, he’s likely not a guy I want to get a ton of exposure to on a slate of this size. Deandre Ayton got his minutes back last time out and they’ll need his size again to handle Gobert and Towns down low in this one. He has a nice price tag as well. I just don’t get a ton from this team when their healthy, but Devin Booker has looked great this season and would be a guy I wouldn’t talk you off in all formats. Then Mikal Bridges will always be a guy I don’t have an issue with if you fall on him as a roster filler. If Paul does sit, I would assume Cameron Payne would enter the starting lineup and would be a really nice value option in all formats. From the Wolves, they’ll get Rudy Gobert back in this one which hurts the rates for Karl-Anthony Towns a good deal as he doesn’t get the same type of rebound equity. Towns losses -4.0% in usage and -0.22 fantasy points per minute with Gobert on the court this season and he’s priced as if Gobert is out, so I’ll wait for that tag to come down a bit… but he’s been in great form with at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell both look like fine tournament options here, they’ve both shown some volatility, but the ceilings are still awesome. Then we can probably hop off of Kyle Anderson with Gobert back in the rotation as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns
Deeper Value: Torrey Craig
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Torrey Craig
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant bounced back in a big way last time out against Boston but just doesn’t hit that ceiling consistently enough for me to love him at this price tag. That being said, if he were ever going to do it again, it’s against this Spurs team… I’ll save him more for tournaments, but he’s certainly interesting. Desmond Bane, on the other hand, has looked awesome and isn’t really impacted by Brooks being on the court and gets a nice matchup here as well. Steven Adams ended up sitting last time out and comes in as questionable here. We saw Brandon Clarke start in his place and was a guy I late swapped to quite a bit, if Adams is out again we can go right back to the Clarke well here. Dillon Brooks is more of a GPP option, we know he loves to shoot while he’s in there but with Morant and Bane demanding shots as well, it may be hard for him to get as many as he may want. Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke are fine cheap options as well to round out the team even if Adams plays. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson is going to continue to run this offense and play big minutes, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. He leads the team with a 27.9% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jakob Poeltl had a fine game last time out but has struggled lately, the price is nice however so no issues with him again here. Devin Vassell has at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks like a nice option again in this one. Then we can round the team out with Tre Jones who feels appropriately priced right now, but wouldn’t hate him as a filler option
5-star play: None
4-star play: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -4.5
Starting with the Lakers in this battle of Los Angeles, LeBron James ended up missing their last game but should be good to go in this one. He has been held under 50 FanDuel points in four straight games, I think there are better spend-up options on this slate with Davis and Westbrook both healthy. The price on Anthony Davis has come up, especially on DraftKings, I’m not sure how much I get to either of these guys in any format. Speaking of Russell Westbrook, he’s putting up good fantasy numbers right now and I think he makes sense as a tournament option at the very least at this price tag. Outside of the big three, I don’t think we need to get too much else from this team, but I do think Lonnie Walker returns from his illness in this one. From the Clippers, Paul George was fine last time out but he’s playing all the minutes he can handle right now. I have no problem going right back to him but the price tag is certainly up. I like him much more on FanDuel where he’s under $10k. Reggie Jackson finally had a solid game last time out, but those games are few and far between, so I doubt I get a whole lot of him in this one either. The same can be said for Norman Powell who apparently also stinks, I’m not forcing him on this slate, I need to see some consistency from him before going back. Ivica Zubac is volatile but has shown a nice ceiling this season and also gets a revenge game against the Lakers in this one. Then we can round out the team with Marcus Morris who has seen big minutes as of late with Robert Covington out. Even with Covington back, Morris is playing massive minutes and makes plenty of sense at this price tag.
5-star play: Paul George (FanDuel)
4-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker, Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.0
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell continues to produce good numbers even with a down game last time out, he now has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks like a solid option again in this one. The price tag on Darius Garland isn’t moving on DraftKings, so he’ll be a guy I go right back to the well with in a great matchup with this Kings’ defense. His price tag is nowhere near as nice at $8k on FanDuel. I think we can safely fade Caris LeVert at this price tag as this team comes in healthy as well. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are fine GPP options, but I don’t think we need to force it on this slate, if you land on them as a filler piece, I have no issue with them. Kevin Love had another great game last time out and actually played 25 minutes… if you guaranteed me 25 minutes out of him I would love him at this price tag. The only issue is the minutes are extremely volatile making him a tournament-only option. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has been pretty good this season, but I don’t think I want to go to him against this Cleveland defense which is extremely legit. Domantas Sabonis has at least 52 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and looks like a solid option even in a tough matchup against Allen and Mobley down low. Keegan Murray has hit a bit of a slump but the price tag is still pretty nice and the minutes will be there for him, I have no issue getting right back to him in this price range, but would be more of a tournament option than anything. Kevin Huerter finally cooled off over his past couple of games, he’s going to be a shooting-dependent guard moving forward. Then a guy like Harrison Barnes is more of a GPP guy for me in a revenge game in a tough matchup.
5-star play: Darius Garland (DraftKings)
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Darius Garland (FanDuel), Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter
NBA Lock of the Day: Fred VanVleet (DK – $8.1k; FD – $8.5k)
The price tag makes me a bit uncomfortable with VanVleet here but the matchup with this Rockets team is awesome. It’s a +3.8 pace-up spot for the Raptors and Houston doesn’t play any sort of defense. VanVleet has a 24.6% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Pascal Siakam off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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