Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/5:
Nov 4, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) dribbles against Portland Trail Blazers guard Josh Hart (11) during the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -4.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Nets, who are still going to be without Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons. I was all over Kevin Durant last night and he dropped nearly 60 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action. He had a 36.7% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute and gets a great matchup with the Hornets in this one. Edmond Sumner moved into the starting lineup for Kyrie last night and played 25 minutes. He’s not exactly the craziest usage/production guy, but he doesn’t need to be at this price tag. He’s in play as a value play at this point in the day. I do like going back to Nic Claxton as well, his minutes and role are much more secure with Simmons out. He’s averaging 36.17 DraftKings points per game with Simmons out this season. The minutes on Joe Harris are all over the place as he continues to try and shake the rust off, I don’t think we need to get to him in anything other than MMEs. The same can be said for Seth Curry who is expected to play, I just don’t think the minutes will be there for him even if he plays. Then Royce O’Neale will play all the minutes he can handle and is a solid filler piece. From the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Dennis Smith Jr. – 17.5% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Kelly Obure Jr. – 30.8% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- PJ Washington – 24.1% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Jalen McDaniels – 18.5% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
McDaniels moved into the starting lineup with Hayward out and really struggled in 21 minutes… I’d still consider him a strong option in this price range again tonight. We can add Mason Plumlee to the list as well whose minutes become more secure and I love the matchup against this Nets frontcourt.
5-star play: Kevin Durant
4-star play: Nicolas Claxton, Royce O’Neale, Kelly Oubre Jr., PJ Washington, Jalen McDaniels, Dennis Smith Jr.
Deeper Value: Edmond Sumner, Yuta Watanabe
GPP Sleeper: Yuta Watanabe, Patty Mills, Edmond Sumner, Dennis Smith Jr., Mason Plumlee
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -3.5
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to be a great option in all formats, he has at least 58 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Jaylen Brown will continue to be a tournament option for me due to the scoring dependency he has, we saw this last night when he struggled against the Bulls. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options, although both have shown signs of disappointment early on this season. Derrick White has been held under 21 DraftKings points in five straight and Malcolm Brogdon has been the better producer, I have no issue with him at this price tag as a pivot off of some of these other values we have. From the Knicks, Julius Randle is a fine option, but I don’t love the matchup with this Boston defense. Part of the issue with Randle is he’s not consistently seeing 37+ minutes nightly as he did in years past. That said, I don’t mind him in GPPs simply because the price does seem too cheap for the ceiling I think he still has. I don’t see myself getting to a whole lot of Jalen Brunson this season, both sites have done really well at pricing him appropriately and it really hasn’t moved a bunch since the start of the season, but he’s a fine secondary option coming off of a nice game last night. RJ Barrett has at least 34 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is slowly starting to shoot better. I don’t mind going back to him again here even in a tough matchup. Then we’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Mitchell Robinson who left last night’s game early, it would not surprise me to see him get the night off here which would likely lead to an Isaiah Hartenstein start. Hartenstein is a great per-minute guy, so if this is the case he would look like a strong value option in all formats.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: Isaiah Hartenstein
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, Isaiah Hartenstein
New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.0
Starting with the Pelicans, they got Brandon Ingram back last night and he ended up playing 36 minutes which is more than I would have expected. Assuming he’s good to go on the back end of a back-to-back, he shouldn’t have any restrictions and is a fine option at this price tag. That said, I touched on it yesterday, but with these main three guys all healthy, I don’t think we need to force guys who are appropriately priced like Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram… I do think we can make a case for Jonas Valanciunas in GPPs simply due to his ceiling, but that’s about it from this team for me. It is a nice matchup with this Hawks’ defense, however. From the Hawks, Trae Young comes in as questionable which is massive news for the slate as a whole so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but if he does get ruled out, we’ll have it broken down for you in that Breaking News Feed. Dejounte Murray dominated after Young left early last time out, both will look good again here in a solid matchup in a fast-paced game. John Collins has bounced back nicely with at least 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games but is still more of a GPP option than anything for me at this moment. I always like Clint Capela a bit more than I probably should, but he’s a per-minute monster with a massive ceiling for tournaments. Then we can round the team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out.
5-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray
4-star play: Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, John Collins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -7.5
Starting with the Thunder, they’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski in this one which somewhat clears up their frontcourt situation… SOMEWHAT. I would expect to see guys like Darius Bazley and Jalen Williams see a boost in minutes making them both solid GPP options. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look great even with Josh Giddey back in the rotation… that said, he still does lose about 2.7% in usage and 0.22 points per minute. I still like his price tag on DraftKings much more than his FanDuel price. Speaking of Giddey, he hasn’t exactly been great since returning from injury, but I do like the price tag if you want to go back to him in a fast-paced matchup. Then Lu Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl make sense as secondary pieces in all formats at their respective price tags. From the Bucks, I could see them resting Giannis Antetokounmpo in this spot on the back end of a back-to-back. He popped up on the injury report yesterday with a knee injury which leads me to believe a night off may be coming. This is just reckless speculation, however, so I’ll operate under the assumption that this team is a full go. He now has at least 60 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. He’s right up there with some of the other spend-up options on the slate. He has a 37.3% usage rate and 1.84 fantasy points per minute on the season and is one of the best raw options on the slate. Jrue Holiday continues to look great and outproducing his price tag, I have no issue going right back to him in a great matchup. Bobby Portis has at least 35 DraftKings points in two of his last three and makes sense as a tournament option in this one. Brook Lopez had his worst game of the season last night, but he’s been great all year and a matchup with Gobert may have hurt him last night, I have no problem going right back to him in this spot.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Darius Bazley
GPP Sleeper: Darius Bazley, Jalen Williams, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Min -8.5
Starting with the Rockets, they’re going to be without Jabari Smith Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate in this one. I would expect to see KJ Martin grab Smith’s starting spot in this one and looks like a nice value option in all formats. We could see Tari Eason get some additional run as well and would be an interesting tournament value. Kevin Porter Jr. does see a slight bump with Smith off of the court this season with a 30.5% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute, he’ll look good again in this one. Jalen Green has been a bit more volatile and is probably more of a tournament option for me but we know the ceiling is there for him. Then I like going right back to the well with Alperen Sengun after a big game last time out. The matchup is a bit more difficult, but he’s talented enough to pull Gobert away from the hoop and get his points. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has been good as of late with at least 40 FanDuel points in six straight games, the matchup is great as well. Rudy Gobert, on the other hand, has not been so hot… he’s been held under 30 fantasy points in three straight but gets a great bounce-back matchup in this one. D’Angelo Russell has been volatile this season but I do like the fast-paced matchup for guys like him and Anthony Edwards.
5-star play: KJ Martin, Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr. Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Green, Tari Eason, Eric Gordon, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
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San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Den -11.5
Starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson returned last night but shot poorly going just 7-19 from the field. He’s going to continue to run this offense and play big minutes, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jakob Poeltl has struggled over his last couple of games and gets a tough matchup with Jokic down low in this one. He’d be more of a secondary option for me here. Devin Vassell returned last night as well and picked up right where he left off but played just 25 minutes. I would expect that comes up in this one and that 25-minute mark is more of his floor than anything, he’s a nice option even at an elevated price tag. As expected, Josh Richardson fell out of the rotation with these guys back and isn’t an option while these guys are in there. Then we can round the team out with Tre Jones who feels appropriately priced right now, but wouldn’t hate him as a filler option. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look great here and is right up there with Giannis as the top raw option on the slate. He averaged 67.5 FanDuel points per game in four games against the Spurs last season. Michael Porter Jr. struggled last time out but I have no issue going right back to him in this one at an elevated price tag, he’s probably more of a GPP guy, but still someone I want exposure to. Jamal Murray has now seen at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games and has 34 DraftKings points in both of them, I like going right back to him here, as we continue to target guards against the Spurs. Then guys like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown all make sense as mid-range GPP options if you land on them as a filler option. It’s worth noting Bones Hyland comes in as questionable, he missed their last game, so if you’re interested in him be sure to watch the injury report.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -11.0
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons missed last night’s game and will come in as questionable in this one, so be sure to watch the Breaking News Feed for updates but I’ll operate under the assumption that he returns tonight. If that’s the case, he’ll look good again as he continues to absorb the Damian Lillard role. He has at least 46 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Jusuf Nurkic came back to Earth last night in this matchup, but I do like the ceiling if you want to get here in tournaments. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant are very similar to me in that they’re both going to play big minutes in a similar price tier, I don’t have a problem going back to either of them in this one. Then Shaedon Sharpe hasn’t shown me enough for me to be all that interested, he’s more of a GPP dart than anything at this point. Then we’ll round the slate out with the Suns, Deandre Ayton returned last night to play 30 minutes, so I would assume he’s not restricted moving forward and looks like a great option in this price range. I just don’t get a ton from this team when their healthy, but Devin Booker has looked great this season and would be a guy I wouldn’t talk you off in all formats. Chris Paul came down to Earth last night and the price has come up as well, I’ll consider him more of a secondary option. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are fine filler pieces as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Shaedon Sharpe, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
NBA Lock of the Day: Isaiah Hartenstein (DK – $4.4k; FD – $5.1k)
I’m going to operate under the assumption that Mitchell Robinson will miss tonight’s game after leaving last night’s game early which sets up Hartenstein for more minutes and potentially even a start. He started the second half last night which bodes well for his starting chances tonight. With Robinson off of the court this season he has a 14% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute and we’ve seen him have some big ceiling games over the past few seasons. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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