Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/4:
Nov 1, 2022; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard Edmond Sumner (4) reacts after a basket against the Chicago Bulls during the second half at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Was -3.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Nets, they’re going to be without Kyrie Irving who is suspended, and Ben Simmons who is supposedly hurt… again. What does this mean for the rest of the team? It’s going to be the Kevin Durant show. With Kyrie and James Harden (Simmons wasn’t on the team last year) off of the court last season, Durant had a 36.7% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute. This is a great matchup as well, Durant looks awesome here. I would anticipate we get Edmond Sumner starting in Kyrie’s place and makes sense as a value option in all formats. I do like going back to Nic Claxton as well, his minutes and role are much more secure with Simmons out. He’s averaging 35.9 DraftKings points per game with Simmons out this season. The minutes on Joe Harris are all over the place as he continues to try and shake the rust off, I don’t think we need to get to him on a massive slate tonight. The same can be said for Seth Curry who is questionable anyway, I just don’t think the minutes will be there for him even if he plays. Then Royce O’Neale will play all the minutes he can handle and is a solid filler piece. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal has been fine this season but he just feels a bit overpriced right now. He’s only had one 50-point fantasy night this season and Kristaps Porzingis actually leads the team in usage and points per minute at 26.2% and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. I would prefer Kristaps at his price tag over Beal, Kristaps has been in better form as well with at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The rest of this team is just kind of blah, especially on a 12-game slate. I just don’t see myself getting to a whole lot of Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, or Will Barton.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Edmond Sumner, Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: Nicolas Claxton, Royce O’Neale, Bradley Beal
Deeper Value: Edmond Sumner, Yuta Watanabe
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris Kyle Kuzma, Yuta Watanabe, Patty Mills
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.0
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler will be out for this one and Bam Adebayo comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding this team. Below is how the Heat operated with Butler off of the court last season:
- Bam Adebayo – 25.7% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 30.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Kyle Lowry – 19.2% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Max Strus – 19.3% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Caleb Martin – 16.5% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
Bam and Herro are pretty easily my favorite options here assuming Bam plays, but this is an elite matchup for the Heat, so I have no issue going to any of these guys. Lowry has been sneaky good as of late with at least 30 FanDuel points in five straight games. Then guys like Strus and Martin are going to play all the minutes they can handle and are solid filler pieces, they’re just not huge usage guys, but that’s baked into their price tags. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton had his worst game of the season last time out, but I would have no issue going right back to him here due to the consistency we’ve seen from him all season. Buddy Hield has been in great form as of late with at least 39 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and looks like a solid secondary piece as well. Bennedict Mathurin has been a bit more volatile than we saw earlier in the season, he would be more of a secondary GPP option here. Myles Turner came down to Earth last time out as well but only played 20 minutes, I would expect him to be closer to 30 in this one and think he’s a solid option in all formats.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton
Deeper Value: Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent
GPP Sleeper: Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 220
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.0
Starting with the Cavs, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both come in as questionable here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that both are good to go here. Mitchell continues to look awesome even with Garland back last time out, I would have no problem going right back to him in this matchup. Garland was a guy I was all over last time out UNTIL Bickerstaff came out and said he’d play in shorter spurts which took me off of him… he went on to play 42 minutes and dropped 62 DraftKings points. So you can imagine my frustration with Bickerstaff and NBA coaches as a whole, but he’s an elite play again here, especially at his $6.9k price tag on DraftKings. Caris LeVert will continue to be a GPP option, he’s volatile but when his shot starts to fall, he’s capable of a big night. Then Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are solid options at their respective price tags, but on a big slate, I doubt I get to them with any real exposure. We can round this team out with Kevin Love came back down to Earth last time out, it’s pretty clear their limiting his minutes even more than in years past as they try and work together a playoff run for the first time in a while. From the Pistons, Cade Cunningham had a rough go of it last time out but had at least 48 DraftKings points in four straight leading up to that game. I have no issue going back to him here, although I don’t love the matchup against this Cavs defense. Jaden Ivey has shown some volatility but is still a solid GPP option due to the minutes he’ll play. Saddiq Bey is in a similar boat, he will continue to be a tournament-only option, he’s about as volatile as it gets, but the ceiling is there when he’s cooking. Jalen Duren will return here which is much needed so they can get away from playing guys like Nerlens Noel and Isaiah Livers as much, but Duren won’t be a guy I get to on a big slate. Then Isaiah Stewart has been a guy I’ve been getting a bunch of as of late, I would still expect he plays around 30 minutes even with Duren back but again, the matchup is tough.
5-star play: Darius Garland (DraftKings)
4-star play: Darius Garland (FanDuel), Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.5
Starting with the Knicks, the price tag on Julius Randle continues to fall but I don’t hate him here against this Philly defense. He won’t be a priority for me but he should play 30+ minutes and has a 28.6% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute on the season. I don’t see myself getting to a whole lot of Jalen Brunson this season, both sites have done really well at pricing him appropriately and it really hasn’t moved a bunch since the start of the season, but he’s a fine secondary option. RJ Barrett bounced back a bit last time out and is a guy I don’t mind going back to, if he starts hitting his shots his production will look vastly different, in a good way. Then I suppose we can round this team out with Mitchell Robinson as a tournament option, and maybe Isaiah Hartenstein as well if Robinson gets in foul trouble down low against Embiid. From the Sixers, we found out James Harden is going to miss a few weeks due to a right foot injury, so it’ll be the Joel Embiid show going forward. Below is how this team operated with Harden off of the court last season (Seth Curry as well):
- Tyrese Maxey – 24.1% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Joel Embiid – 41.1% usage rate; 1.71 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 25.2% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
These are my three favorite options on the team and all three look like incredible options with Harden out. I would expect that per-minute production for Maxey to come up as well as he really started to hit his stride toward the end of last season. Embiid is obviously my favorite option if you can find the money, but Maxey and Harris are great options if you can’t get to him. I do like getting to De’Anthony Melton as well, I would expect he starts for Harden moving forward and is always a nice per-minute guy when he gets the opportunity. He’s about a 1.00-point-per-minute guy on the season with Harden off of the court.
5-star play: De’Anthony Melton, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: Isaiah Hartenstein, De’Anthony Melton
GPP Sleeper: Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -7.0
Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine ended up playing the last game, and looks like he’s good to go here as well. When all three of LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are healthy it’s hard for me to love any of this team, especially on a 12-game slate. I won’t talk you off of any of the three, but definitely not priorities for me by any means. Even guys like Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso are very blah for me… I’ll be very underweight on the Bulls at this point in the day. From the Celtics, Jayson Tatum bounced back in a big way last time out by destroying the Cavs. I have no issue going right back to him here, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Jaylen Brown will continue to be a tournament option for me due to the scoring dependency he has, he does have at least 42 DraftKings poitns in three straight, however. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options, although Horford has been less than impressive to start the season, he finally showed signs of life last time out… but it was in 40 minutes of action. Derrick White has been held under 21 DraftKings points in four straight and Malcolm Brogdon has been the better producer, I have no issue with him at this price tag as a pivot off of some of these other values we have.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford
Deeper Value: Malcolm Brogdon
GPP Sleeper: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Marcus Smart
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Charlotte Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -11.0
Starting with the Hornets, are we ever going to see them play with a full unit this season, or are they in full Wembanyama mode? They’ll be without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Dennis Smith Jr. – 18% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
- Kelly Obure Jr. – 32% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- PJ Washington – 22.5% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Jalen McDaniels – 19.1% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
I would expect McDaniels moves into the starting lineup with Hayward out and all four of these guys will look like strong plays in all formats. We can add Mason Plumlee to the list as well whose minutes become more secure with Washington playing more forward minutes. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has lost some production over his last few as this team begins to get healthier, he just feels overpriced relative to the rest of the spend-up options on this slate, I don’t see myself getting to him all that much in this one. Desmond Bane continues to play extremely well with at least 45 DraftKings points in four straight games, I would have no problem going right back to him here. Steven Adams had a big game last time out as well, I wouldn’t expect that to be the norm, but he did play 34 minutes. Dillon Brooks is more of a GPP option, we know he loves to shoot while he’s in there but with Morant and Bane demanding shots as well, it may be hard for him to get as many as he may want. Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke are fine cheap options, but I think we’ll have plenty of value on this slate which makes them unusable.
5-star play: Jalen McDaniels
4-star play: PJ Washington, Dennis Smith Jr., Kelly Oubre Jr., Desmond Bane, Ja Morant
Deeper Value: James Bouknight
GPP Sleeper: Mason Plumlee, Ja Morant, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -4.5
Starting with the Clippers, they’ll be without Kawhi Leonard for the next few games, so we can take him off of the court here. Paul George followed up his massive game against the Rockets with another solid game against the Rockets. He’ll look good again here in an elite matchup with one of the worst teams in the league. Reggie Jackson has seen at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games but has been incredibly volatile and now with John Wall back I can’t see that helping his cause. He’s more of a GPP dart than anything for me. The same can be said for Norman Powell who has been a pretty big disappointment to start the season… I’ll wait for him to develop some consistency or for that price tag to come down a bit. Ivica Zubac is volatile but has shown a really nice ceiling this season and in a great matchup, he’ll look good for tournaments again here. Then we can round out the team with Marcus Morris who has seen at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games and has looked great with Robert Covington out. From the Spurs, they should get Keldon Johnson back in this one and will jump right back into being a solid play in all formats. He has at least 47 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is running this offense right now. Jakob Poeltl had his worst game of the season last time out in a blowout loss against the Raptors, I would have no issue going back to him in this one, those minutes will come back up. Devin Vassell will return here as well after being out for about 10 days, I would imagine he’s not limited but I won’t put anything past Coach Pop, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regarding him. Assuming he’s a full go, he’ll look great again but did get a good price bump. We can come off of Josh Richardson a bit with Vassell and Johnson back, there are better plays in that price range. Then we can round the team out with Tre Jones who feels appropriately priced right now, but wouldn’t hate him as a filler option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paul George, Marcus Morris, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Devin Vassell
Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam continues to crush with at least 50 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and gets a great matchup in this one. I love going right back to the well with him especially if Fred VanVleet ends up missing again. VanVleet comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for news on him, but Siakam had a 28.2% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court last season. Scottie Barnes would likely run the point again if VanVleet were to miss as well which would be good for his value, he would be a solid option in all formats. Then Gary Trent Jr. and OG Anunoby both looked solid last time out and would-be guys I have no issue going right back to in this one in a great matchup. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic will be right up there with these other stars as a top raw option on this slate. He has at least 53 FanDuel points in every game this season and looks like an elite option yet again here. Christian Wood will continue to be more of a GPP dart than anything at this price tag. The minutes will be around the 25 mark and he would need to be extremely efficient to get us there. This team is pretty easy for me to break down… it’s Luka and pretty much nobody else for me on a big slate, I suppose you could make a case for Tim Hardaway Jr. or Spencer Dinwiddie in GPPs… Dinwiddie had the big game last time out.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -4.5
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry has continued to look great this season with at least 45 DraftKings points in each game this season. He leads the team with a 30.8% usage rate and 1.55 fantasy points per minute on the year and will look like a good option here in a great matchup against the Pelicans. Klay Thompson seems like he’s fully back and Kerr has taken the training wheels off as he has at least 30 minutes in three straight. I have no issue going right back to him at a nice price tag. Jordan Poole has not been good off of the bench this season, I don’t think he’s in play at his current price tag with this team being fully healthy. Andrew Wiggins has been a bit more volatile as of late, he’d be more of a deeper GPP guy for me on a massive slate. Then we can round this team out with Kevon Looney as a filler piece if you need a value center option. From the Pelicans, it sounds like Brandon Ingram will be back in this one which kind of takes me off of most of this team. With how much value we have in all price ranges on this slate I don’t think we need to force guys who are appropriately priced like Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram… I do think we can make a case for Jonas Valanciunas in GPPs simply due to his ceiling, but that’s about it from this team for me.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas
Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -3.5
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo bounced back in a big way last time out and now has at least 60 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. He’s right up there with some of the other spend-up options on the slate. He has a 37.4% usage rate and 1.85 fantasy points per minute on the season and is one of the best raw options on the slate. Jrue Holiday continues to look great but he’s priced right about where he should be, I’m not sure how much of him I’ll get on this slate, but if you land on him I have no issue getting to him. Bobby Portis continues to play well as well and will be a solid GPP option due to the volatility of his minutes. Brook Lopez has been sneaky great to start the season and has at least 33 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and makes sense as a mid-range center option. From the Wolves, we’ll need some news here as Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards come in as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that they both play here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Karl-Anthony Towns has been good as of late and averaged 47.25 DraftKings points against the Bucks in two games last season. D’Angelo Russell has been volatile this season but I do like the fast-paced matchup for guys like him and Anthony Edwards. They’ll need Gobert’s defense against Giannis down low but is priced right about where he should be so not a guy I’ll be getting a ton of here.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -11.0
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons comes in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. I’ll go right back to the well with Simons here as he’s the main fill-in for Dame. He had a 28.9% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Lillard and McCollum off of the court last season and should see 35+ minutes again here. I would expect Shaedon Sharpe to continue to start with Lillard out as well, but he hasn’t looked great in his first couple of games, we can do better on this slate. Jusuf Nurkic has looked great with at least 48 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a solid GPP option again in this one. Then Josh Hart and Jerami Grant are solid mid-range options that will play 30+ minutes. From the Suns, it sounds like Deandre Ayton will return here which will take me off Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale at their current price tags. I just don’t get a ton from this team when their healthy, but Devin Booker has looked great this season and would be a guy I wouldn’t talk you off in all formats. Chris Paul had a massive game last time out as well and will look fine in his price range. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are fine filler pieces as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Devin Booker, Chris Paul
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -3.0
We’ll round out this monster slate starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen followed up his massive game against the Grizzlies with a dumper against the Mavs… I would have no issue going back to him in this one. This Lakers defense is not good and Markkanen has been great. Jordan Clarkson has looked great as of late as well and has a 25.0% usage rate with 1.09 fantasy points per minute on the season. Collin Sexton is starting to get more minutes with at least 30 in two of his last three, I think he’s pretty interesting at this price tag and gets you off of some of the chalkier value options. Kelly Olynyk has been pretty volatile to start the season, he would be more of a GPP option for me. Jarred Vanderbilt has been fine as of late but isn’t racking up the double-doubles like he was earlier in the season… his minutes did come back up last time out and is a solid secondary option. Mike Conley will always be a secondary type of guy for me and is someone I’ll have no issue with if you land on him, but not a priority by any means. From the Lakers, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Anthony Davis is questionable. I’m just going to assume he plays, he’s going to have this tag for most of the season. LeBron James has been fine as of late but he’s priced for his ceiling and not his median outcome which makes him more of a GPP option for me. Davis has been great when he plays and is too cheap here, he looks like a great option in all formats in this one. I do have some tournament interest in Russell Westbrook at this price tag as well, I wouldn’t touch him in cash, however. Then guys like Patrick Beverley and Lonnie Walker are fine secondary tournament options but not guys that I’ll get too crazy on.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, Anthony Davis, LeBron James
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Kelly Olynyk, Russell Westbrook
NBA Lock of the Day: De’Anthony Melton (DK – $4.4k; FD – $6.0k)
FanDuel did a good job with the price tag for Melton, but he’s a free square on DraftKings tonight. He should start for James Harden and play nearly 30 minutes and is about a point-per-minute guy on the season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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