Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/27:
Oct 7, 2022; Greensboro, North Carolina, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown in action against the Charlotte Hornets in the first half at Greensboro Coliseum Complex. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -5.5
We’ll kick off this slate with a game that is only on the FanDuel main slate, so if you want exposure to this one you’ll have to play over there. We’ll start with Miami, they’ll be without Jimmy Butler again in this one while Tyler Herro comes in as questionable. Herro has been playing over their last few games, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He’ll look solid here in a great matchup with this Atlanta backcourt and has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Butler off of the court this season. Bam Adebayo is coming off of a massive game last time out against and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Kyle Lowry has been solid as of late and as I mentioned with Herro, I like attacking this Atlanta backcourt with opposing guards. Then I have no issue with Max Strus or Caleb Martin as secondary options. From the Hawks, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray both dropped a 50 burger last time out and are solid options yet again here as this Miami defense losses some shine with Butler out. Young would be my preferred option, as he leads the team with a 34.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute in a similar price range as Murray. Clint Capela has been good as well, the big issue for him will be minutes, when he sees the minutes, he’s generally productive but the minutes can be volatile. John Collins will continue to be a tournament option, he’s the definition of boom or bust and I’m not sure we need to get to him on this slate. Then we can round this team out with De’Andre Hunter who missed their last game but should be good to go in this one.
5-star play: Trae Young, Tyler Herro
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Caleb Martin, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -7.5
Starting with the Wizards, Bradley Beal returned last time out and had a great game against the Heat. He’s playing massive minutes with at least 37 in four straight games, so at least we know those will be there. I have no issue going right back to him in tournaments at the very least. Kristaps Porzingis is probably more of a tournament guy for me on a slate of this size at his current price tag. The same can be said for Kyle Kuzma, but it’s hard to ignore his production as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Deni Avdija has been sneaky great as well with at least 31 DraftKings points in three straight and is a guy I don’t mind again here. Will Barton came down to Earth with Beal and Monte Morris back last time out as well, we can hop off that train in this one. From the Celtics, they’ll be without Jayson Tatum in this one which will open up a ton of usage and opportunity on this team. Below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Jaylen Brown – 37.3% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Malcolm Brogdon – 28.9% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Marcus Smart – 17.7% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Al Horford – 14.4% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Grant Williams – 11.2% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
I would expect Grant Williams starts in Tatum’s place, but probably isn’t a guy I’ll love here, that said, he’s a fine value option at his price tag. Brown is priced up but he will take over as the leader of this offense and makes plenty of sense in this one. The guys I like quite a bit are those secondary options like Brogdon, Smart, and even Derrick White to take on extra duties in this one, and look like really nice mid-range options in all formats.
5-star play: Jaylen Brown
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: Grant Williams, Sam Hauser
GPP Sleeper: Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija, Derrick White, Grant Williams, Sam Hauser
Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -2.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Desmond Bane and we’ve seen Ja Morant look great with him out as of late. He has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will be a guy I like going right back to here. The price tag on Dillon Brooks has come way up, but the matchup is awesome against the Knicks who haven’t played any sort of defense on the season. Jaren Jackson has been awesome since returning from injury. His minutes will always be somewhat volatile due to his inability to stay out of foul trouble, but he’s a nice tournament option at the very least here. John Konchar should start for Bane again here but is priced up right where he should be, I don’t see myself getting much, if any, of him in this one. Then Steven Adams looks like a fine secondary center option in the mid-range if you need one in your roster construction. From the Knicks, Julius Randle has 41 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a guy that looks fine here. He’s not really someone I love, but not a guy I hate either. Jalen Brunson comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a full go here and I love the price tag yet again on him, he’s been in great form. RJ Barrett has been all over the place this season and is a hard guy for me to trust, but has been in much better form over his last few games. The same can be said for Immanuel Quickley, but I like the price tag quite a bit more for him. Lastly, if Cam Reddish is out again we should see Quentin Grimes back in the starting lineup. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three straight and would look like a nice value option.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Jalen Brunson
4-star play: Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., RJ Barrett, Julius Randle
Deeper Value: Quentin Grimes (if Reddish is OUT)
GPP Sleeper: Steven Adams, John Konchar, Immanuel Quickley
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 213.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -2.0
We saw this matchup last time these two teams took the court, so we have a bit of a sample size here. Starting with the Sixers, they’ll continue to be without Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey yet again. Montrezl Harrell and Paul Reed will fill in for Embiid at the five… Reed had the big first night but I think Harrell would be the guy I want in this one at a cheaper price tag. De’Anthony Melton and Shake Milton will continue to run the backcourt and look like nice options in a great matchup. Milton is the one starter who isn’t quite priced up enough for their role with these guys off of the court. He’s coming off of a massive game last time out and has a 22.0% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. Then Tobias Harris will look like a strong option as well, he looked great last season with Embiid out but is priced thru the nose right now considering his recent production. From the Magic, Paolo Banchero returned last time out and played 36 minutes, he won’t be limited moving forward and is a fine option in this one. I’m going to leave the rest of this team for the Breaking News Feed as we wait on a bunch of news with Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, and Chuma Okeke come in as questionable. We’ll have everything broken down along with a starting lineup once we get a final injury report.
5-star play: Shake Milton
4-star play: Montrezl Harrell, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Paolo Banchero
Deeper Value: ORL TBD
GPP Sleeper: Paul Reed, ORL TBD
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -7.0
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been extremely solid this season but did struggle last time out. I don’t have a problem with getting to him here, but he’s probably more of a secondary option on this slate, at this price tag. The same thing can be said for Darius Garland who has a similar price tag to Mitchell and is coming off of a similarly bad game. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen as they both come in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they are full go’s in this one. I do like the price tags on Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, although the Mobley price is starting to catch up with him. From the Pistons, it’s going to be another situation where I’m going to leave this to the Breaking News Feed due to the number of question marks we have. Cade Cunningham will be out but Saddiq Bey, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, and Bojan Bogdanovic all come in as questionable which makes it pretty impossible to break this team down.
5-star play: DET TBD
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, DET TBD
Deeper Value: DET TBD
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, DET TBD
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Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -7.0
Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is going to be right up there with Giannis as the top spend-up option on the slate. He has at least 63 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is a great raw option here. Christian Wood would be more of a tournament option due to the volatility in his minutes, but he’s great when he’s in there. He also gets a revenge game against the team that gave up on him. Spencer Dinwiddie has come back to Earth with Doncic back as of late, so he’ll be more of a secondary option for me here as well as he fights for usage with Doncic. Then guys like Dorian Finney-Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. are fine options for tournaments, but not priorities by any means. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has at least 52 DraftKings points in four straight and is coming off of a massive game last time out against the Cavs. This Dallas frontcourt won’t have an answer for him and will look like a great option in all formats. If I’m picking between the two of Doncic and Giannis it’s probably Luka due to the amount of usage he demands, but he also draws the much harder matchup. Jrue Holiday had a rough go of it last time out and struggled with foul trouble, but he’s a solid option in all formats on a slate of this size at a great price tag. Bobby Portis will be more of a tournament option at this price tag as this team begins to get healthier, and the minutes will become more volatile. Then Brook Lopez has sneakily been one of the best all-around centers in the league this season, he has at least 34 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and makes sense in all formats on this slate.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen
NBA Lock of the Day: Jaylen Brown (DK – $8.5k; FD – $8.5k)
I love the spot for Jaylen Brown in this one against the Wizards. The Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum which opens this offense up quite a bit. Brown has a 37.3% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute with Tatum off of the court this season. Not to mention, he averaged 53.2 DraftKings/48.6 FanDuel points per game with Tatum out last season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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