Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/19:
Apr 10, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Shake Milton (18) reacts in the third quarter against the Detroit Pistons at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -6.0
We’ll kick off this short slate with the Magic, Paolo Banchero is going to miss some time but Wendell Carter Jr. should be good to go here. Below is how this team has operated with Banchero and Cole Anthony off of the court this season:
- Chuma Okeke – 13.4% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 27.7% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Bol Bol – 20.6% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Wendell Carter Jr. – 24.3% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 25.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
Franz Wagner and Bol Bol look like good mid-range options here, but I would probably leave Wagner for cash and Bol for GPPs due to the volatility although he’s been more consistent as of late. We can round the team out with Jalen Suggs who is more of a secondary guy but does have at least 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. I do want to mention Mo Bamba as well, he’s been seeing more consistent minutes and has always been a nice per-minute producer, I have no issue if you want to get to him in tournaments. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton was helped off of the court last night, so I would imagine he’s closer to doubtful than questionable, but make sure to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock for an update. I would imagine we get TJ McConnell starting in his place in this one. McConnell is going to look like an awesome value in this one and has a 17.4% usage rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute with Haliburton off of the court this season. Myles Turner has some pretty ridiculous rates with Haliburton out this season… it’s a very small 41-minute sample size, but the guy has a 30.6% usage rate and 1.92 fantasy points per minute in those minutes. Those rates will regress, but it’s hard not to like him again in this one. Buddy Hield had a down game last night, but just shot the ball poorly, I have no problem going right back to him in this one. Then guys like Jalen Smith and Bennedict Mathurin will be fine options on a short slate, we saw a nice game from Smith last night.
5-star play: Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, T.J. McConnell
4-star play: Wendell Carter Jr., Bol Bol, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: T.J. McConnell, Andrew Nembhard
GPP Sleeper: Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, Andrew Nembhard
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Min -3.5
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has been fine as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last five, but at this price tag, those numbers are pretty good. He should get to avoid Embiid a good deal as well as Rudy Gobert draws that assignment, so I think Towns looks pretty good here. Anthony Edwards had a ceiling game last time out but I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 7-13 from three-point range again. That said, we know he has an upside, so I don’t have a problem going back to him here either. D’Angelo Russell, on the other hand, will be a tournament-only guy for me, I just don’t think he’s all that good and has been very volatile for DFS purposes. Gobert draws a tough matchup here but the price tag continues to fall, so I like going back to him as well. Then we can round this team out with Jaden McDaniels as a solid secondary option. From the Sixers, they got more bad news on the injury front last night by losing Tyrese Maxey who is going to get an MRI done on his foot meaning he’ll be out in this one. I would expect Tobias Harris to return in this one after missing last night’s game, however. The sample size isn’t big enough to pull rates in this situation, but I would anticipate Shake Milton will start in Maxey’s place and De’Anthony Melton continues to start for Harden. Both will look like great options here, particularly Milton who will be underpriced. In 80 minutes with these guys off of the court this season, Milton has a 20.1% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute. The team will revolve around Joel Embiid though, he continued to dominate last night and now has at least 64 FanDuel points in three straight games and looks like one of the best raw options on the slate. I would have no issue getting to Tobias Harris here as well, there should be some more opportunities available to him with Maxey out.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert (DraftKings), Joel Embiid, Shake Milton
4-star play: Rudy Gobert (FanDuel), Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: Shake Milton
GPP Sleeper: D’Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Por -3.5
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen’s production has been all over the place lately but looked great last night dropping a 50-burger on the Suns. He shot extremely well though, so I would expect some regression there. I don’t have an issue getting to him on a short slate here, however. Jordan Clarkson hasn’t been in the best for as of late either, but as long as the minutes are there, which they should be, I have no issue with him in this spot. I do think Mike Conley is slightly underpriced and makes a ton of sense in the mid-range, he has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Kelly Olynyk came crashing down to Earth last night after a big game against the Knicks a few days ago. He’s going to continue to be a tournament option, he’s so handy on defense it makes it hard to trust his minutes… he has 5 fouls in three straight games. Then guys like Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Collin Sexton would all be in play in tournaments on a shorter slate as well, Vanderbilt and Beasley looked great last night. From the Blazers, Jusuf Nurkic got his minutes back up to 25 last time out, so I would expect him to be lifted from any sort of minutes limit going forward. He’s a solid GPP option at the very least. Damian Lillard continues to look good with at least 43 DraftKings points in four straight games, I like the matchup against an overachieving Jazz squad as well. Jerami Grant single-handedly killed me last time he was on the slate, he’s probably overpriced right now making him more of a tournament guy. The consistency for Anfernee Simons has been solid, but he’s priced right about where he should be. Then Josh Hart and Justise Winslow are solid secondary options as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Kelly Olynyk, Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic
Deeper Value: Malik Beasley
GPP Sleeper: Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -9.0
Starting with the Spurs, we’re going to need some news from this team before we can get too crazy in breaking them down. Jakob Poeltl and Devin Vassell are questionable, while Keldon Johnson is probable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that both guys play, but be ready to late swap, as we likely won’t have the news before lock. Tre Jones has been a bit underwhelming over his last two games but the price tag is fine, I don’t want to prioritize him unless the injuries go the right way, but he’s a fine secondary option. Keldon Johnson leads the team with a 28% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute on the season and will look good again in this one. Jakob Poeltl came down to Earth last time out after dominating the Blazers, he’s going to look like a solid option regardless assuming he plays. Devin Vassell has been extremely consistent this season but is priced right about where he should be, so he won’t be a priority for me, but you could do much worse in this price range if you fall there. Then we can round the team out with Jeremy Sochan who has been seeing much better minutes as of late and is a Draymond Green-ish player, he provides some nice value here. I will say if Poeltl ends up sitting and Charles Bassey starts in his place… BUCKLE UP! He has 1.29 fantasy points per minute on the season and would have legit 10x upside if the minutes are there. From the Clippers… I hate this team, Paul George has been fine as of late but not relative to his current price tag. That said, I do like the matchup against the Spurs here… but I’m not sure it’s enough for me to want to get to him. Ivica Zubac is a solid option here, I like chasing upside on short slates like this, he can be volatile but we know the ceiling is there. Marcus Morris has been pretty solid as of late and we know the minutes are going to be massive. Then Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell are GPP options only due to how all over the place they have been this season, especially with John Wall back in this one. Speaking of Wall, he had a rough game last time out but has been pretty good in his minutes this season, so no issue with him as a mid-range tournament option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris
Deeper Value: Charles Bassey
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Charles Bassey, John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard
NBA Lock of the Day: Shake Milton (DK – $3.1k; FD – $3.6k)
Tyrese Maxey is having an MRI done on his foot today after leaving last night’s game early, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out tonight. Shake Milton will likely start in his place and is dirt cheap. He filled in nicely for him last night and has a 20.1% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute with Maxey and Harden off of the court this season. They’re not the greatest rates, but you don’t need a massive game from him at this price point. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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