Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/18:
Nov 5, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Bones Hyland (3) gestures after a shot in the fourth quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Was -1.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Heat, they’ll continue to be without Tyler Herro while Bam Adebayo comes in as questionable after missing their last game. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go, but if he’s out, I would expect Nikola Jovic to start in his place and look like a good value option. Jimmy Butler had a down game last time out but gets a nice bounce-back spot here and has a 24.3% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute with Herro off of the court this season. The price tag on Kyle Lowry doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for upside, so he would be more of a secondary option for me on a big slate. Then guys like Max Strus and Caleb Martin are fine last-piece-in type plays as your fill out your rosters. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal returned last time out and went right back into his normal playing time with 37 minutes. He looked pretty good, but I’m not sure I want to go back to him in a tough matchup with this Miami team. Guys like Kristaps Prozingis and Kyle Kuzma will take a usage and production hit with Beal back in the lineup but both looked great last time out. They’re in play but just not going to be guys I’m prioritizing especially in this matchup. I should mention, Deni Avdija has looked great lately and has at least 26 DraftKings points in four straight games, I would imagine the minutes are still there for him.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: Will Barton
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -9.5
Starting with the Hornets, they’re going to be without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. in this one. I would expect we see more minutes for guys like Theo Maledon and James Bouknight off of the bench while Kelly Oubre and Jalen McDaniels should continue to start. Below is how this team has operated with these guys off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 31.2% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- PJ Washington – 19.5% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 27.5% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Jalen McDaniels – 17.0% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
It’s not the biggest sample size this early in the season, so take those numbers with a grain of salt, but the minutes and opportunity will increase with these guys off of the court in a tough matchup with this Cavs defense. Speaking of the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell ended up playing last time out after being questionable all day but did not look great against the Bucks. that said, I don’t expect a bounce back to take long as he gets a great matchup with a shorthanded Hornets team in this one. Jarrett Allen comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, I’ll operate under the assumption that he does play. The price tag is really nice on him and if he’s not limited in any sense, he’s going to look like a good option. Kevin Love moved back to the bench last time out even with Allen inactive, so I would imagine that’s where he’s going to stick here making him more of a tournament option. Darius Garland looked solid last time out as well but I just have a tough time paying this price tag for him with Mitchell in the backcourt with him. He does look a lot better at that price tag on FanDuel, however. I’ll continue to go back to the Evan Mobley well as well, he’s been in good form with at least 40 FanDuel points in two of his last three. Then Caris LeVert is strictly a tournament guy that I can’t imagine I get a whole lot of on a slate this size.
5-star play: Terry Rozier, Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Jalen McDaniels, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: James Bouknight, Theo Maledon
GPP Sleeper: Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Caris LeVert
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 213.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
Starting with the Bucks, Jrue Holiday will come in as questionable, but I have a hunch he plays just judging this spread… but I said that last game too, so just watch the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be an elite option regardless of if Holiday plays or not, he has a 38.9% usage rate and 1.76 fantasy points per minute on the season and is one of the top raw options on the slate. He’s averaging 63.18 DraftKings points per game in seven games against the Sixers since the 2020 season. Bobby Portis continues to cook as well with at least 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three, that said, he would likely go back to the bench if Holiday is back. Then Brook Lopez has been sneaky great as well and makes sense as a secondary option in all formats. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has finally found his footing and had an absolutely ridiculous game last time out. He now has at least 70 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and much like Giannis performs well in this matchup. He averaged 64.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks last season and will look like a great play again in this one… although Lopez has been incredible on the defensive end this season. Tyrese Maxey will continue to look good, with James Harden off of the court this season he has a 31.3% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Then guys like Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine options but feel appropriately priced.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: Jordan Nwora, PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -8.5
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero is going to miss some time but Wendell Carter Jr. should be good to go here. Below is how this team has operated with Banchero and Cole Anthony off of the court this season:
- Chuma Okeke – 13.9% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 28.2% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Bol Bol – 21.3% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Wendell Carter Jr. – 22.9% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 24.3% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
Franz Wagner and Bol Bol look like good mid-range options here, but I would probably leave Wagner for cash and Bol for GPPs due to the volatility. We can round the team out with Jalen Suggs who is more of a secondary guy. I do want to mention Mo Bamba as well, he’s been seeing more consistent minutes and has always been a nice per-minute producer, I have no issue if you want to get to him in tournaments. From the Bulls, I always have such a hard time playing these guys when their big three of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic are all active which is the case in this one tonight. If I had to pick one it would likely be Vucevic just due to the price tag, but these guys are all secondary options for me tonight. The same can really be said for the rest of this team, I will say Andre Drummond is crushing in short run as he generally does, if anything were to happen to Vuc, such as injury or foul trouble or even a blowout, he would look good in a tournament at this price tag.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Chuma Okeke, Mo Bamba, Andre Drummond
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like a great option, especially on DraftKings where they just refuse to price him up. He now has at least 53 DraftKings points in four of his last five and gets a great matchup in this one. The price tag on Josh Giddey really hasn’t moved either and will be a guy I want to go back to as well, although he’s been held down in back-to-back games. Guys like Lu Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski will be solid options in their price range, but more of GPP options than anything here. Outside of these main guys, there really isn’t much I want to hitch my wagon to on a big 11-game slate tonight. From the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Desmond Bane, so I would imagine John Konchar sticks in the starting lineup. The price has caught up to him, so he’s not a priority by any means. Jaren Jackson returned last time out to play 25 minutes, but he was not shy in shooting 14 field goals and 7 threes while he was in there… he didn’t shoot well going 3-14 from the field and 0-7 from three, but it’s intriguing that the shots were at least there. I would expect 25 minutes to be his floor going forward unless he gets in foul trouble, which he’s very good at. Ja Morant will continue to be a great option, he has at least 57 DraftKings points in three of his last four and gets a nice bump with Bane out. Dillon Brooks would be more of a tournament option for me at this price tag, he likes to shoot, but he doesn’t shoot all that well. Then we can round this team out with Steven Adams as a secondary center option, but I’m not sure how much I’ll actually get to him on this slate.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings), Ja Morant
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FanDuel), Josh Giddey, Jaren Jackson
Deeper Value: Brandon Clarke
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, John Konchar, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams
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Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -5.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton ended up playing last time out after being questionable all day but isn’t on the injury report for this one. He looked great again in that game and has an awesome matchup with a fast-paced Houston team that doesn’t play any defense. Myles Turner will look good again here as well, he has at least 36 FanDuel points in four straight games and has a massive upside against this Rockets frontcourt. Buddy Hield has been surprisingly consistent this season and would be a guy I like to get back to in a game with a 236 implied total. Then guys like Jalen Smith and Bennedict Mathurin will be secondary GPP options on a big slate like tonight. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. will come into this one as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but definitely news we’ll need to keep an eye on as we get closer to lock. He dropped a 50-burger last time out and will look great again against one of the worst defenses in the league. The same can be said for Jalen Green who has been in great form as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Alperen Sengun looks like a fine option but hasn’t been in the best form and gets the toughest individual matchup on the team with Turner down low. Jabari Smith has been a bit more volatile as of late which isn’t unexpected out of a rookie, he would be more of a tournament option for me in this one. I do like Tari Eason, I wish he would get more minutes though. He’s probably not a guy we need to get to on a slate this size, however.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner
4-star play: Buddy Hield, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -9.0
Starting with the Nuggets, they’ll be without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in this one while Aaron Gordon comes in as questionable. Gordon missed their last game as well, so it’s news we’ll need to watch, but it’s safe to assume he’s a true question mark tonight. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I would expect to see Bones Hyland slide into the starting lineup with Murray out and will be a strong mid-range option while Jeff Green would likely get the start in Gordon’s place if he’s forced to miss. DeAndre Jordan started for Jokic last time out and played 26 minutes which is more than I thought he would get, but he didn’t exactly play all that great. He’ll be a fine value option again in this one, but if you told me he was going to see 26 minutes again, I’d likely get a good chunk of him. Michael Porter Jr. had a disappointing game last time out but shot the ball terribly, he is a bit of a volatile player but with how shorthanded they are tonight, they’ll need his offense, and will be a guy I go right back to the well with. Then guys like Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope make plenty of sense as secondary options. From the Mavs, they’ll get Luka Doncic back in this one after he missed their last game. He’s going to look like one of the top raw options on the slate if you can find the salary, up there with guys like Giannis and Embiid. Spencer Dinwiddie has been in good form as of late and has at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five, I have no issue going back to him, but the price tag has certainly caught up to him. Christian Wood looked great last time out and got a season-high in minutes. Part of me thinks he’s going to start to see 30 minutes more regularly with JaVale McGee struggling so much, I have no issue going back to him again in tournaments. Then I don’t think we need to chase Tim Hardaway’s game due to Luka being out last time, but he’s a fine flyer in that price range.
5-star play: Bones Hyland, Michael Porter Jr., Luka Doncic
4-star play: DeAndre Jordan, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood
Deeper Value: DeAndre Jordan
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tim Hardaway Jr., Christian Wood
Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to look great but man the price tag is up on him. Not that it’s not warranted though, he has at least 50 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and gets a great matchup in this one. Jaylen Brown would be more of a GPP option for me due to the scoring dependency which I don’t love when you get up in this price range, but he’s in play nonetheless. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like they’re starting to hit their stride a bit. Smart does come in as questionable, however, so keep an eye on that news. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to return which will hurt the minutes and opportunity for Derrick White who has been playing well with Brogdon out, I don’t think we need to get to either of them on a big slate. From the Pelicans, Zion Williamson comes in as questionable as well after missing their previous two games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he plays which makes this team a lot less intriguing, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. This team is a lot like the Bulls, when their main three guys are active, I don’t see a ton of meat on the bone with their price tags, so guys like Zion, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas will be tournament options unless Zion is forced to miss.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Malcolm Brogdon
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.5
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, so that’s news we’ll need to keep an eye on in this one. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he plays and will adjust in the Breaking News Feed if needed. At least we kind of know the deal if he sits though, fire up Cameron Payne, although the price tag has caught up with him. Devin Booker has been fine as of late but at this price tag, I’m not sure we need to prioritize him on a slate this big. The price tag on Deandre Ayton is really nice but he hasn’t been all that productive as of late… I think I would like him more if Paul were to play, but the price tag will keep him in play regardless. Then Mikal Bridges will be a fine option as always in his price range, we know the minutes will be there but the production can always be a bit sketchy. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen’s production has come down to Earth which makes him feel overpriced. I would consider him more of a tournament option, but we know the ceiling is certainly there. Jordan Clarkson hasn’t been in the best for as of late either, but as long as the minutes are there, which they should be, I have no issue with him in this spot. I do think Mike Conley is slightly underpriced and makes a ton of sense in the mid-range. Kelly Olynyk had a massive game last time out for the first time this season, he’s going to be another GPP guy but it was good to see him finally produce a good game. Then guys like Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, and Collin Sexton would be dart-throw GPP options for me on this slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -7.5
Starting with the Knicks, we saw Isaiah Hartenstein back in the starting lineup again last time out but had a rough go of it while Jericho Sims was the better producer off of the bench yet again. At his current price tag, I don’t think Hartenstein is all that appealing even if he starts due to the volatility around him. Julius Randle bounced back in a big way against the Nuggets last time out and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Jalen Brunson has been sneaky good as well with at least 40 DraftKings points in two of his last four. He’s priced right about where he should be as always, however. RJ Barrett has been all over the place this season which keeps him as a tournament-only option for me, but I do like the matchup, this game should be pretty high-scoring. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate and will look great here against one of the worst defenses in the league. He now has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.57 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been solid this season but is another guy I don’t think we need to prioritize, he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me and hasn’t been in the best of form over his last few games. Jordan Poole will go back to being a GPP-only guy for me as he continues to look for his production off of the bench. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means, although both have been really good as of late. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: Jericho Sims
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jericho Sims, RJ Barrett
Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -7.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Pistons, Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart will continue to be out for them in this one. Marvin Bagley will continue to start for them but as you can tell from his last game, he can be volatile which makes him a GPP-only option for me. Jalen Duren would be an interesting value play off of the bench as well. Killian Hayes should continue to start for Cade as well and has looked good over his last few games with at least 33 DraftKings points in two of his last four. Jaden Ivey is a guy I like going right back to as well, he has a 33.1% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute with Cade and Stewart off of the court this season but has disappointed a bit recently. Saddiq Bey moved back into the starting lineup with the injury to Stewart, he’s always going to be a volatile guy making him a tournament guy, but we know the upside is there. Then we can round the team out with Bojan Bogdanovic who has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. From the Lakers, LeBron James comes in as questionable and has been out for about 10 days now, so it’s definitely news we need to keep an eye on. Assuming he plays and isn’t limited, I would have no issue going back to him here. Anthony Davis would take a hit in this case, but does have at least 56 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and does get a nice matchup. Russell Westbrook would lose some usage as well and has been in good form. The price tag is starting to catch up with him, however. Dennis Schroder is expected to make his debut in this one, I wouldn’t expect a ton of minutes from him but will hurt guys like Lonnie Walker and Patrick Beverley.
5-star play: LeBron James
4-star play: Marvin Bagley, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: Jalen Duren
GPP Sleeper: Marvin Bagley, Jalen Duren, Saddiq Bey, Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker
NBA Lock of the Day: Bones Hyland (DK – $5.0k; FD – $5.8k)
The Nuggets will be without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray tonight with the potential of Aaron Gordon being added to that list as well. I would expect Bones gets the start for Murray at point guard and will look like a great option in all formats. He has a 34.5% usage rate and 1.43 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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