Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/16:
Nov 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. (1) shoots against the Chicago Bulls during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as Iāll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, youāll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, letās get it started!
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Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 233
Vegas Spread: Cha -2.5
Weāll kick off this slate with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton comes into this one as questionable, so weāll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. That said, heās been pretty healthy this season, so for the sake of this article, Iām going to operate under the assumption that heās a go and looks great in this matchup. Myles Turner will look good again here as well, he has at least 36 FanDuel points in three straight games and has a massive upside against this Hornets frontcourt. Buddy Hield bounced back in a big way last time out as well and obviously, I love the matchup against a bad Hornets defense. Then guys like Jalen Smith and Bennedict Mathurin will be secondary GPP options on a big slate like tonight. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball got up to 34 minutes last time out and I think itās safe to say heās a full go going forward and will be a guy I get to in a great matchup here. With Gordon Hayward off of the court last season he had a 28.5% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Theyāll continue to be without Gordon Hayward here as well, so Kelly Oubre will get his minutes and look like a nice mid-range option but can be volatile at times. Terry Rozier is still a fine option but I donāt like the price tag, even with Ball back heāll see a bunch of minutes but may lose some usage. PJ Washington finally had a bounce-back game last time out against Orlando and is a guy I have no issue going back to now that his price has fallen a good amount. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels are in play as MME options, Plumlee has actually been in pretty good form, so I wouldnāt hate even getting to him in some cash games.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee,
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin, Mason Plumlee, Jalen McDaniels
Quick shoutout to VIP member āCenzamaticā on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 225
Vegas Spread: Min -5.5
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns had a nice bounce-back game last time out in a tough matchup with Cleveland and will look good again here against this Magic frontcourt. I would have no problem going back to him at a fair price tag. Iāve had a really tough time getting to Anthony Edwards and DāAngelo Russell this season, we know the upside is there for both of them as we saw last time out for Russellā¦ but theyāre so volatile that it makes it tough to trust them in anything else than GPPs. I do like the price tag on Rudy Gobert quite a bit and is a guy Iāll go right back to in all formats, we havenāt seen him at this price tag in a long time. Lastly, Jaden McDaniels is a fine option, but I donāt think we need to get to him on this slate. From the Magic, it sounds like Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. will come in as questionable again in this one. Iām going to operate under the assumption that heās a go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regardless. Banchero has been out for nearly 10 days now, so if he does play Iāll want to know heās not limited before rostering him. I donāt have a problem with Wendell Carter Jr. here either, the Wolves havenāt quite figured out their new defense. Then Franz Wagner and Bol Bol look like good mid-range options here, but I would probably leave Wagner for cash and Bol for GPPs due to the volatility. We can round the team out with Jalen Suggs who is more of a secondary guy regardless of the status of Banchero. I will say, if Banchero or Carter Jr. sit, we can likely go right back to the Chuma Okeke well who has been starting for Bancheroā¦ but isnāt all that effective on a per-minute basis.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert (DraftKings)
4-star play: Rudy Gobert (FanDuel), Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, DāAngelo Russell, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Russell, DāAngelo Russell, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Bol Bol
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 227
Vegas Spread: Was -4.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like a great option, especially on DraftKings where they just refuse to price him up. He now has at least 53 DraftKings points in four of his last five and gets a great matchup in this one. The price tag on Josh Giddey really hasnāt moved either and will be a guy I want to go back to as well, he has at least 46 DraftKings points in two of his last four, and seems like heās starting to shake the rust off. Guys like Lu Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski will be solid options in their price range, but more of GPP options than anything here. Poku is coming off of a massive game last time out where he played 37 minutes. Outside of these main guys, there really isnāt much I want to hitch my wagon to on a nice 10-game slate tonight. From the Wizards, it sounds like Bradley Beal is going to return here after missing nearly two weeks of action, so watch the Breaking News Feed to make sure heās not limited, but I donāt know how much we want to get to him anyway due to the production weāve seen this season. Guys like Kristaps Prozingis and Kyle Kuzma will take a usage and production hit with Beal back in the lineup and I would assume we see Jordan Goodwin phased out altogether. This team feels like a big stay-away until their prices adjust for Beal being back in the rotation. I should mention, Deni Avdija has looked great lately and has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, I would imagine the minutes are still there for him.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings)
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FanDuel), Aleksej Pokusevski
Deeper Value: Will Barton
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija, Will Barton
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 215.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, Tyler Herro will continue to be out here as he didnāt make the trip with the team, and Bam Adebayo comes in as questionable as well, so weāll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him as well. Iāll operate under the assumption that Bam is good to go here but obviously news that weāll need to monitor. Jimmy Butler has been good as of late and will look good again here, he has a 25% usage rate and 1.45 fantasy points per minute with Herro out this season. Bam Adebayo has at least 41.8 FanDuel points in three straight games. The price tag on fat ole Kyle Lowry has come up as well, but heās been pretty consistent this season and is a solid secondary option and will see more usage with Herro out again. Max Strus came down to Earth last time out but we know the minutes will be there for him as he has at least 36 in three straight. From the Raptors, this is a team weāll really need an update from the Breaking News Feed on as Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. feel like true questionable guys tonight. We saw them both miss last time out and Nick Nurse likes to play around with that starting lineupā¦ if either of them misses I would imagine we see Dalano Banton back in the starting lineup, but again, we need to see whoās active. Iāll assume they both play here, but itās a fluid situation. Below is how this team operates with Siakam off of the court this season:
- OG Anunoby ā 22.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Scottie Barnes ā 19.4% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Chris Boucher ā 22.5% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Fred VanVleet ā 25.8% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Gary Trent Jr. ā 22.7% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
One notable thing for this team is Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter Jr. will be out again, so the minutes for Chris Boucher should be pretty solidified and will make him look like a really strong option in his price range.
*** The below assumes Bam Adebayo, Fred VanVleet, and Gary Trent Jr. are all IN ***
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Fred VanVleet
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Thaddeus Young
Deeper Value: Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Thaddeus Young
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to look great but man the price tag is up on him. Not that itās not warranted though, he has at least 50 FanDuel points in three straight games and gets a great matchup in this one. Jaylen Brown returned to the rotation and left off right where he was and now has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like theyāre starting to hit their stride a bit. Smart had a huge game filling in for Brown last time out which hopefully helps jump-start him a bit. Malcolm Brogdon comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on that news, if heās forced to miss then Derrick White would see a slight upgrade and has looked good as of late. From the Hawks, Trae Young is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and has been solid, I would have no issue going back to him in this one even in a tough matchup against this Celtics defense that hasnāt quite hit its stride yet. The same can be said for Dejounte Murray if you canāt quite find the salary to get up to young. This game should have a good pace to it which generally leads to some nice DFS production. John Collins showed his volatility over their last couple of games and would be a GPP-only guy for me due to that volatility we know he has. Clint Capela has been cooking as of late with at least 39 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Then we can round the team out with DeāAndre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: John Collins, DeāAndre Hunter, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon
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Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -3.0
Starting with the Bulls, I always have such a hard time playing these guys when their big three of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic are all active which is the case in this one tonight. If I had to pick one it would likely be Vucevic just due to the price tag, but these guys are all secondary options for me tonight. The same can really be said for the rest of this team, I will say Andre Drummond is crushing in short run as he generally does, he has at least 27 DraftKings points in three of his last four. From the Pelicans, Zion Williamson comes in as questionable after missing yesterdayās game, so weāll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status, but Iāll operate under the assumption that heās a go for the sake of this article. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum seem to be priced right around where they should be and would be fine secondary options here. We kind of know the deal with Jonas Valanciunas by now, he has a massive ceiling but an incredibly low floor making him more of a tournament-only guy. The same can be said for Larry Nance who had a big game last time out, but his good games have been few and far between. These teams are very similar to meā¦ both are hard to get to when their three main guys are healthy.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andre Drummond, Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 220
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.0
Starting with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell will come in as a game-time decision while Jarrett Allen wonāt be available in this one. Iāll operate under the assumption that Mitchell is active but we should see Kevin Love slide back into the starting lineup again. We saw him play 29 minutes in this same situation last time out and will be a great option here. With Allen off of the court this season he has a 22.5% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Darius Garland is coming off of an unreal game last time out against the Wolves, although I wouldnāt expect him to shoot 10-15 from three-point range again. The price on him has shot thru the roof as well, heād be more in play for me if Mitchell were to sit. Iāll continue to go back to the Evan Mobley well as well, especially with Allen out, it is a tough matchup with this Milwaukee interior defense, however. Then Caris LeVert would be more of a guy I want if Mitchell sits, heās strictly a GPP guy with Mitchell in there. From the Bucks, Jrue Holiday will come in as questionable, but I have a hunch he plays just judging this spread. Thereās a chance we see Pat Connaughton make his season debut as well, but I would imagine heās somewhat limited and wonāt be in play for DFS purposes. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be an elite option regardless of if Holiday plays or not, he has a 38.9% usage rate and 1.76 fantasy points per minute on the season and is one of the top raw options on the slate. Bobby Portis continues to cook as well with at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five and actually leads the league in double-doubles, that said, he would likely go back to the bench if Holiday is back. Then Brook Lopez has been sneaky great as well and makes sense as a secondary option in all formats.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Love
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Bobby Portis
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 222
Vegas Spread: Dal -9.0
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will continue to run this backcourt and look like solid options at their respective price tags. I like going right back to Alperen Sengun again here even after a rough game last time out, he has a 23.3% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jabari Smith has been a bit more volatile as of late which isnāt unexpected out of a rookie, he would be more of a tournament option for me in this one. I do like Tari Eason, I wish he would get more minutes though. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in two of his last five games but hasnāt played more than 25 minutes in any game this season. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic has been great lately and continues to be one of the leagueās best DFS producers with a 38.7% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute on the year. Christian Wood just isnāt a guy Iām going to get to a whole lot in this price range due to the limited minutes he plays off of the bench, that said, he does have a nice ceiling when heās got all things clicking. Spencer Dinwiddie has at least 32 FanDuel points in four straight games and is a solid option in all formats again hereā¦ although I do think heās a bit riskier with Wood back to take some of that usage. Then Tim Hardaway Jr. has been good over his last couple of games and will be a good tournament option at his price tag.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Spencer Dinwiddie
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Smith, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr.
New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 226
Vegas Spread: Den -3.5
Starting with the Knicks, we saw Isaiah Hartenstein back in the starting lineup again last night but had a rough go of it as Jericho Sims lit it up off of the bench. At his current price tag, I donāt think Hartenstein is all that appealing even if he starts due to the volatility around him. Julius Randle had a rough go of it last time out but has been pretty consistent as of late, so I wouldnāt have an issue with him again in this one. Jalen Brunson has been sneaky good as well with at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Heās priced right about where he should be as always, however. RJ Barrett bounced back in a way last time out but has been volatile all season, I donāt think we need to get to him on a slate this size. From the Nuggets, theyāll be without Nikola Jokic and potentially Aaron Gordon as well as he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on that news, but Jokic is the big news here. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Michael Porter Jr. ā 20.6% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Jamal Murray ā 38.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- DeAndre Jordan ā 15.5% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Aaron Gordon ā 21.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm (small sample)
- Zeke Nnaji ā 24.2% usage rate; 0.95 fpm (small sample)
I would expect DeAndre Jordan to get the start, but I donāt see him playing a whole lot of minutes, probably around 20 or so with a combination of Zeke Nnaji and Jeff Green behind him. I think Nnaji would be my preferred option at likely lower ownership as well as people generally flock to the starter. I do like Porter Jr. and Murray quite a bit as guys to get a boost for production and usage with Jokic out, I mean look at that usage rate for Murrayā¦ yeah heās going to look good here.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray
Deeper Value: DeAndre Jordan, Zeke Nnaji
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein, RJ Barrett, DeAndre Jordan, Zeke Nnaji, Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate even with a rough game last time out relative to his normal expectations. He now has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been solid this season but is another guy I donāt think we need to prioritize, he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me. Jordan Poole will go back to being a GPP-only guy for me as he likely goes back to the bench with Klay back in this one. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means, although both have been really good as of late. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range. From the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, so thatās news weāll need to keep an eye on in this one. Iām going to operate under the assumption that he plays and will adjust in the Breaking News Feed if needed. Devin Booker has been fine as of late but at this price tag, Iām not sure we need to prioritize him on a slate this big. The price tag on Deandre Ayton continues to fall as well and would be a guy I like again here against a smaller frontcourt. Then Mikal Bridges will be a fine option as always in his price range, we know the minutes will be there but the production can always be a bit sketchy.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Chris Paul
NBA Lock of the Day: Kevin Love (DK ā $5.6k; FD ā $4.9k)
I loveā¦ KEVIN LOVE! Jarrett Allen is already ruled out for this game and Donovan Mitchell comes in as questionable. I would expect Love sticks in the starting lineup for Allen and has been an elite per-minute guy over the last year and a half. With Allen off of the court this season he has a 22.5% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. He also gets a fast-paced matchup with this Milwaukee team. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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