Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/14:
Nov 12, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Toronto Raptors forward O.G. Anunoby (3) dribbles the ball while Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (00) defends in the second quarter at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball made his season debut last time out and played 28 minutes. He looked pretty good in those 28 minutes as well, I would imagine that’s his minutes’ floor moving forward, but I may wait for him to get over 30 minutes before I pay this price for him. They’ll continue to be without Gordon Hayward here as well, so Kelly Oubre will get his minutes and look like a nice mid-range option but can be volatile at times. Terry Rozier is still a fine option but I don’t like the price tag, even with Ball back he’ll see a bunch of minutes but may lose some usage. PJ Washington has struggled over his last couple of games but gets a much better matchup in this one as opposed to that Miami frontcourt, I don’t have an issue going back to him if he’s going to get overlooked due to his game logs. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels are in play as MME options, Plumlee has actually been in pretty good form, so I wouldn’t hate even getting to him in some cash games. From the Magic, it sounds like Paolo Banchero will come in as questionable again in this one after missing their last few games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regardless. I do love the matchup, but I’ll want to know that he’s not limited before I pay this price tag for him. I don’t have a problem with Wendell Carter Jr. here either, bigs against the Hornets are something I like to exploit. Then Franz Wagner and Bol Bol look like good mid-range options here, but I would probably leave Wagner for cash and Bol for GPPs due to the volatility. We can round the team out with Jalen Suggs who has been solid as of late but the price tag feels like it’s right where it should be, so more of a secondary guy.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Bol Bol, Jalen Suggs
Deeper Value: Mo Bamba
GPP Sleeper: LaMelo Ball, Jalen McDaniels, Bol Bol, Mo Bamba
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.5
Starting with the Raptors, they’ll be without Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet in this one which will open up a ton of usage and shots to go around. Below is how this team operated with these two off of the court last season:
- Chris Boucher – 21.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 18.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Gary Trent Jr. – 29.4% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- OG Anunoby – 25.7% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
With Precious Achiwua out as well I would expect we see Thad Young and Otto Porter Jr. both slide into the starting lineup here. They’ll both look like solid value options here and I did not expect to see Young play 34 minutes in a game this season, but here we are. I do like getting to Boucher off of the bench as well, we know what he’s capable of when he gets the opportunity. He has at least 32 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. From the Pistons, Cade Cunningham will continue to be out in this one as well. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Jaden Ivey – 31.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Saddiq Bey – 21.0% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Bojan Bogdanovic – 26.3% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Isaiah Stewart – 17.4% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Killian Hayes slid into the starting lineup over Joseph last time out and now has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a guy that will look great again here. Then guys like Bey and Bogdanovic would be GPP guys followed by Stewart as a secondary option in all formats.
5-star play: Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey
4-star play: OG Anunoby, Thad Young, Otto Porter Jr., Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart
Deeper Value: Thad Young, Otto Porter Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Chris Boucher, Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -11.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like a great option, especially on DraftKings where he’s only $8.9k compared to his $10k FanDuel price tag. He has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a guy I’ll get to a bunch even in a tougher matchup. The price tag on Josh Giddey really hasn’t moved and will be a guy I want to go back to as well, he has at least 46 DraftKings points in two of his last three, and seems like he’s starting to shake the rust off. Guys like Lu Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski will be solid options in their price range, but more of GPP options than anything here. Outside of these main guys, there really isn’t much I want to hitch my wagon to on a nice 7-game slate tonight. From Boston, Jayson Tatum had a massive game last time out, but he’s priced thru the nose right now… which is probably warranted at this point. There might be some sticker shock, but he’s a good play in a great matchup. Jaylen Brown missed their last game but should be back in this one and has at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like they’re starting to hit their stride a bit. Smart had a huge game filling in for Brown last time out which hopefully helps jump-start him a bit. Malcolm Brogdon will be out here, so we likely see more minutes and opportunities for Derrick White who has at least 26 DraftKings points in two of his last three.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings), Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FanDuel), Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Aleksej Pokusevski, Derrick White
Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, so that’s news we’ll need to keep an eye on in this one. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he plays and will adjust in the Breaking News Feed if needed. Devin Booker has been fine as of late but at this price tag, I don’t think I’m all that thrilled to get to him against a good Miami defense. The price tag on Deandre Ayton continues to fall as well and would be a guy I like again here, although the matchup isn’t the greatest. Then Mikal Bridges will be a fine option as always in his price range, we know the minutes will be there but the production can always be a bit sketchy. From the Heat, Tyler Herro comes in as questionable which is news we’ll want to watch for as well, for the sake of this article I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go even after he missed their last game. Jimmy Butler came down to Earth last time out but has been in really good form as of late. I have no issue going right back to him in all formats in this one. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo as well, he has at least 41.8 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Assuming Herro plays, he’ll look good as well, but man the price tag is tough to stomach. The price tag on fat ole Kyle Lowry has come up as well, but he’s been pretty consistent this season and is a solid secondary option. Max Strus put up a nice game last time out as well and is playing all the minutes he can handle, you can do worse in this price range.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Torrey Craig, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Max Strus
Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.0
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and has been solid, I would have no issue going back to him in this one as he looked great in this matchup earlier in the season with 58.5 DraftKings points. The same can be said for Dejounte Murray if you can’t quite find the salary to get up to young. This game should have a good pace to it which generally leads to some nice DFS production. John Collins showed his volatility over their last couple of games and would be a GPP-only guy for me due to that volatility we know he has. We were all over Clint Capela last time out with Okongwu off of the court. Okongwu will return for this game but it’s hard to ignore Capela’s production as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Then we can round the team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out. From the Bucks, Jrue Holiday will continue to be out in this one, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return. Below is how this team has operated with Holiday off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 37.1% usage rate; 1.88 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 25.4% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Jevon Carter – 23.5% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 21.7% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.5% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Bucks at their respective price tags. MarJon Beauchamp has been seeing good minutes as of late as well but isn’t the type of guy to look to score when he’s out there and likely losses a few minutes with Giannis back as well, so I’ll be off of him here. I do think we can continue to go to Carter even at an elevated price tag, he’s looked like a new player as of late and will look good again in this one.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bobby Portis, Jevon Carter, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez
I need to give VIP Member “TTG2436” a massive shoutout for his $100k takedown earlier in the season, congrats man! Our NBA Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like
Love
or Dislike
a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the NBA Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -5.5
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George has been fine as of late but not relative to his current price tag. That said, this is an elite matchup with a terrible Houston defense, so I have no issue going back to him in this spot. After George, this team is really hard to consistently get right due to the volatility they have. Ivica Zubac has been good but isn’t excluded from that group. He has at least 29 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. Marcus Morris continues to play all the minutes he can handle and is a guy I don’t mind at this price tag as well in a good matchup. Then Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell are GPP options only due to how all over the place they have been this season. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will continue to run this backcourt and look like solid options at their respective price tags. I like going right back to Alperen Sengun again here even after a rough game last time out, he has a 23.0% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jabari Smith has been a bit more volatile as of late which isn’t unexpected out of a rookie, he would be more of a tournament option for me in this one. I do like Tari Eason, I wish he would get more minutes though. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in two of his last four games but hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in any game this season.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paul George, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, Jabari Smith Tari Eason
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -7.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson leads the team with a 28% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute on the season and will look like a strong option again in this one. Jakob Poeltl has been much better as of late with at least 41 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and looks good again in this one. Devin Vassell has been extremely consistent this season but is priced right about where he should be, so he won’t be a priority for me, but you could do much worse in this price range if you fall there. Tre Jones is in a similar boat, he’s been great, but the price tag has caught up to him. That being said, he’s another guy I won’t talk you off of in this spot. Then we can round the team out with Jeremy Sochan who has been seeing much better minutes as of late and is a Draymond Green-ish player, he provides some nice value here. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate coming off of a massive game last time out. He now has a 30.8% usage rate and 1.55 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been solid this season but is another guy I don’t think we need to prioritize, he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me. Jordan Poole just isn’t a guy I’m getting to right now, he’s really struggling off of the bench and is overpriced… I’ll wait for him to figure it out or for that price tag to come down. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means, although both have been really good as of late. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: Jeremy Sochan, Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney
NBA Lock of the Day: Gary Trent Jr. (DK – $5.6k; FD – $5.5k)
This play is not for the faint of heart considering the recent game logs, but I love Trent here with VanVleet and Siakam out. He saw a massive bump with VanVleet in particular out last season. He had a +7.7% usage bump and +0.33 fantasy points per minute which put him at a 29.4% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute. I love the matchup with the Pistons and think he looks great here and may go under-owned with his recent performances. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
