Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/13:
Nov 11, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Steven Adams (4) reacts after a foul call during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Wolves, Rudy Gobert came back down to Earth last time out after returning from injury and looking good against the Suns. This is a tough matchup with the Cavs frontcourt but I love this price tag, so he’ll be a guy I get a bunch of on this slate. Karl-Anthony Towns losses -4.2% in usage and -0.20 fantasy points per minute with Gobert on the court this season. The price tag on him has come down a bit which makes him a bit more playable but I’ll leave him for GPPs. Gobert himself looked good in his return and is too cheap here, he’s going to be a great option in all formats. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell both look like fine tournament options here, they’ve both shown some volatility, but the ceilings are still awesome. Then we can probably hop off of Kyle Anderson with Gobert back in the rotation as well even after a nice game last time out. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell comes in as questionable so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go for the sake of this article. He bounced back in a massive way over his last two games with at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Darius Garland bounced back nicely and still shot terribly going 5-19 from the field, he’s now a combined 6-28 over his last two games. I would expect some positive regression in his shooting, so I like going back to him if people are going to be low on him. Caris LeVert isn’t a guy I get to a ton when the team is healthy, and he showed why over his last three games where he flashes a nice ceiling but gets held under 20 DraftKings points in his other two games. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are solid options again here, I had a bunch of Mobley last time out and he had his best game of the season so I obviously like going right back! The matchup is a bit tougher with Gobert in the paint, however. We kind of know the deal with Kevin Love at this point, he’s going to play 20-25 minutes and if he gets hot he gets hot and you’re going to like him, but there’s no way of predicting it, so just a tournament option.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert (DraftKings), Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Rudy Gobert (FanDuel), Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Kevin Love
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Was -1.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane come into this one as doubtful as well as Jaren Jackson which isn’t new news. Below is how the team operated last season with Morant and Bane off of the court last season:
- Tyus Jones – 20.4% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- John Konchar – 13.1% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Brandon Clarke – 20.1% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 30.7% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
I would expect to see Tyus Jones and John Konchar slide into the starting lineup for Bane and Morant and both look like great value options on this slate and will-be guys I get a bunch of in this one. I do love Dillon Brooks here as well, he’s going to shoot, shoot, and shoot some more, he looks awesome here. Steven Adams continues to look good as well and looks like a solid mid-range center option. I do think Brandon Clarke’s minutes become a bit more secure as well and makes sense as a tournament option. From the Wizards, it sounds like Bradley Beal is going to continue to be out in this one as well, so Corey Kispert should stick around in that starting lineup. He had a massive game last time out but he didn’t miss a shot, so I’m not chasing that. I wish Will Barton would get more minutes, he’s the only other bucket-getter outside of Kristaps Porzingis on this team unless you want to count Kyle Kuzma in that category. That said, the minutes are volatile, but I like the upside for tournaments. Kristaps has a 28.2% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Beal off of the court this season. Kuzma has been great lately as well and would be a guy I don’t mind going back to here as well. Then guys like Jordan Goodwin and Monte Morris are more secondary options than anything.
5-star play: Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: John Konchar, Steven Adams, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: Tyus Jones, John Konchar
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Corey Kispert, Will Barton, Jordan Goodwin, Monte Morris
Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.0
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen has been volatile relative to his price tag but we’ve seen a massive ceiling from him this season. I do like going back to him in tournaments in this one. Jordan Clarkson had a down game last time out as well but has at least 34 DraftKings points in four of his last five. Mike Conley is always a fine option, but never a guy I really prioritize. Kelly Olynyk and Jarred Vanderbilt are solid options in that price range as well if you need a cheaper center option. Then I like going right back to Collin Sexton as well, he got his minutes back last time out and he’s always a great per-minute guy, so I like him as a GPP option. From the Sixers, they’ll continue to be without James Harden, below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Joel Embiid – 38.2% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Tyrese Maxey – 31.5% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 21.2% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- De’Anthony Melton – 16.4% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
These would be the main guys I have an interest in, as I think the rest of this Philly team are GPP darts at best. We haven’t seen that massive Embiid game yet this season which makes his price tag a bit questionable, but I wouldn’t have a problem going back to him here. Then we know the minutes are going to be there for Melton, Maxey, and Harris, so I would have no issue going back to them as well, as this team struggles with depth. One thing to note, Melton missed the last game and will likely come in as questionable so keep an eye on that news, Shake Milton would benefit if he’s forced to miss.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Collin Sexton, Tobias Harris
Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Den -2.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look great here even after coming off of back-to-back down games. He’s right there with Embiid as a top raw option on this slate at the center position. Michael Porter Jr. has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see as of late but has looked good over his last few games, and we know he has a ceiling in there somewhere. Jamal Murray continues to be a consistent option playing around 30 minutes per night, he feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, however. Then guys like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown all make sense as mid-range GPP options if you land on them as a filler option. Gordon has been sneaky great as of late and would be my favorite option of that group. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic are all healthy which will make it tough for me to want to prioritize any Bulls players. I don’t have an issue with any of the three, but they’re all appropriately priced. Then I don’t mind Ayo Dosunmu or Patrick Williams as a value option, but I’m not sure we’ll need them with the value we have with the Grizzlies.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Ayo Dosumnu, Patrick Williams
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.5
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate coming off of a massive game last time out. He now has a 31.2% usage rate and 1.59 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been solid this season but is another guy I don’t think we need to prioritize, he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me. Jordan Poole bounced back last time out but has really struggled off of the bench this season. I’ll wait until he shows us some consistency before going back to him, although the matchup is great. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox had a ceiling game last time out against the Lakers and his price has gone down on DraftKings for whatever reason. I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Domantas Sabonis has been extremely consistent as well and this matchup doesn’t worry me with this Warriors frontcourt. Keegan Murray was terrible last time out and his price tag has come all the way down to $4.5k on DraftKings which is worlds different than 5.8k on FanDuel. If I’m getting exposure to him it would be on DraftKings. Kevin Huerter bounced back nicely last time out but this is what we should expect from him… he’s scoring-dependent and sneakily relies on some steals as well, he’d be more of a GPP guy for me. The same can be said for Harrison Barnes as well, he’s a tournament option.
5-star play: Steph Curry, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Keegan Murray (DraftKings), Kevin Huerter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Keegan Murray (FanDuel), Harrison Barnes
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Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -5.0
Starting with the Nets, they’ll continue to be without Kyrie Irving as he serves his suspension. Then Seth Curry comes in as questionable after seeing his highest minutes of the season last time out. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays and looks like a solid pivot off of the chalkier options in this range with at least 31 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Ben Simmons is unplayable as long as he continues to come off of the bench at this price tag, the minutes just aren’t there right now. Kevin Durant has a 32.8% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie out this season and is an elite option in all formats. Nic Claxton looks great as well as he’s starting to get more run even with Simmons in the rotation. Then guys like Royce O’Neale and Joe Harris are fine options but not guys I’m prioritizing. From the Lakers, they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few games, below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Russell Westbrook – 28.5% usage rate; 1.44 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 30.2% usage rate; 1.51 fpm
- Lonnie Walker – 22.2% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
The sample size on Patrick Beverley wasn’t big enough, but he should see a slight boost as well… I don’t think we need to get to him here. The main pieces I want are Davis and Westbrook in a great matchup. Westbrook should continue to come off of the bench and I wouldn’t expect a change to that here, I wouldn’t worry about that, they’re just trying to stagger the minutes with Davis a bit more, both are great plays in all formats. Then Troy Brown Jr. will likely start in LeBron’s place and will play around 30 minutes, but I don’t think we need him on this slate.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook
4-star play: Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Lonnie Walker
Deeper Value: Joe Harris
GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, Joe Harris, Lonnie Walker, Troy Brown Jr., Patrick Beverley
NBA Lock of the Day: Tyus Jones (DK – $3.6k; FD – $4.5k)
Tyus Jones is pretty much a free square on this slate with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane out tonight. He should start at point guard and has a 20.4% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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