Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/12:
Nov 11, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Saddiq Bey (41) dribbles up court against the New York Knicks during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -2.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Raptors, they’ll continue to be without Pascal Siakam and now Precious Achiuwa as well which will free up plenty of minutes for Chris Boucher or Christian Koloko. I would expect Koloko to continue to start, but love Boucher as an option off of the bench after the game he put up yesterday. Below is how this team has operated with Siakam off of the court this season:
- OG Anunoby – 21.8% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 19.9 % usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Gary Trent Jr – 19.6% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Fred VanVleet – 28.2% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
These are my favorite options which may seem obvious but sprinkle Boucher in there as well. VanVleet had a rough go of it last night after leaving the game early with an illness but gets an elite bounce-back matchup in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton has been the model of consistency to start the season with at least 48 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. I don’t love the matchup with the Raptors, but this game has an implied total of 230, so I’m not going to worry too much about it, he’s a strong option here. Buddy Hield’s streak of greatness came to an end last time out but is a guy I don’t mind in the mid-range, he’s been in great form. The price tag on Myles Turner has come up, but not enough, he’s going to look great again here with at least 40 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Bennedict Mathurin is more of a GPP option than anything due to the volatility he’s shown but the upside is certainly there.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Myles Turner
4-star play: Chris Boucher, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes, Jalen Smith, Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: Christian Koloko, Otto Porter Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Otto Porter Jr., Buddy Hield, Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to be a great option in all formats, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Jaylen Brown will continue to be a tournament option for me due to the scoring dependency he has, but he’s certainly shown that ability as of late with at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like they’re starting to hit their stride a bit. Smart had a down game last time out but it’s not something I’m going to look too deep into. Malcolm Brogdon ended up missing last night’s game and comes into this one as questionable. It didn’t seem to impact Derrick White’s minutes all that much as he hung around the 24-minute mark, so if Brogdon misses I don’t think we need to force White, but it definitely solidifies his minutes. From the Pistons, Cade Cunningham missed last night’s game and will likely come into this one as questionable, the Pistons haven’t submitted their injury report yet. I’m going to assume he misses this one again as he nurses that lower leg injury, however. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Jaden Ivey – 33.3% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Saddiq Bey – 21.4% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Bojan Bogdanovic – 24.6% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Isaiah Stewart – 19.3% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Cory Joseph – 13.3% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
Joseph started at point guard for Cunningham yesterday and played just six minutes… so he’s not really in play for me here regardless. I would rather look toward Killian Hayes who played 34 minutes and had about a fantasy point per minute. I had Jaden Ivey as a core play in our cheat sheets, but so did most of the public. He ended up dudding in 25 minutes, but I would go right back to him if Cade were to sit in this one again. Then guys like Bey and Bogdanovic would be GPP guys followed by Stewart as a secondary option in all formats.
*** The below assumes Cade Cunningham is OUT ***
5-star play: Jaden Ivey
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes
Deeper Value: Killian Hayes
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Jalen Duren
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -3.0
We just saw this matchup a few days ago, so we have a bit of a sample size to go off of. We’ll start with the Hawks, Trae Young is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and has been solid, I would have no issue going back to him in this one although he might have a bit more trouble getting to the hoop with Embiid in the middle. This was evident last time out as he shot just 7-21 from the field. Dejounte Murray struggled in that matchup as well going for just 28.75 DraftKings points. He would be more of a tournament option for me as his price has come up over his last few games. John Collins showed his volatility over their last couple of games and would be a GPP-only guy for me due to that volatility we know he has. I do like going right back to the well with Clint Capela though. He was a guy I liked a bunch last time out and he ended up crushing. He now has at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last four and will be a guy I like again in this one. It’s worth noting Onyeka Okongwu will be out for the Hawks as well which secures Capela’s minutes which is huge for his potential production. Capela averaged 35.46 DraftKings points per game in 34 games with Okongwu out last season. Then we can round the team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out. From the Sixers, they’ll continue to be without James Harden, below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Joel Embiid – 37.2% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
- Tyrese Maxey – 31.8% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 21.3% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- De’Anthony Melton – 16.4% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
These would be the main guys I have an interest in, as I think the rest of this Philly team are GPP darts at best. We haven’t seen that massive Embiid game yet this season which makes his price tag a bit questionable, but I wouldn’t have a problem going back to him here. Then we know the minutes are going to be there for Melton, Maxey, and Harris, so I would have no issue going back to them as well, as this team struggles with depth.
5-star play: Clint Capela
4-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Tobias Harris
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 212.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -10.5
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward will be out again in this one. Terry Rozier has a 28.7% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute with these other guys off of the court this season. I can’t say I love the price tag, however, they priced him all the way up to $8.6k on DraftKings, I would rather get exposure on FanDuel at $8.0k. That said, it’s still a tough matchup with the Heat, so more of a tournament guy for me in this one. Kelly Oubre Jr. had a massive game in this matchup last time out, but I doubt he shoots 7-13 from three-point range again. That being said, when he gets hot from the field he has the upside to put up these types of games. PJ Washington had a down game last time out and gets a tough matchup with this Miami frontcourt, so he would be more of a tournament guy for me. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels are in play as MME options, Plumlee has actually been in pretty good form, so I wouldn’t hate even getting to him in some cash games. From the Heat, Tyler Herro comes in as questionable which is news we’ll want to watch for as well, for the sake of this article I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go even after he missed their last game. Jimmy Butler had a massive game last time out as well and will benefit if Herro is forced to sit. I do love the matchup with this Charlotte defense as well. I have no problem going back to Bam Adebayo as well, he averaged 48.3 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Hornets last season. Assuming Herro plays, he’ll look good as well, but man the price tag is tough to stomach. The price tag on fat ole Kyle Lowry has come up as well, but he’s been pretty consistent this season and is a solid secondary option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., Mason Plumlee, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Jalen McDaniels
Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -5.0
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard missed their last game but will return here. He looked much better last time out than he did against the Heat in his first game back. I have no problem getting to him again in this one, I like the matchup and this game should be competitive. Anfernee Simons’ price tag is fine here, but he’s going to lose about 4.7% in usage according to his season rates with Lillard on the court. Jusuf Nurkic has missed their last few games which has led Drew Eubanks to get some starts. Nurkic comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. If he does sit, we can go right back to the Eubanks well, as he’s looked good in his starting minutes. Then guys like Jerami Grant and Josh Hart will continue to play big minutes and are solid secondary pieces as well, I did have Justise Winslow as a core play last time out as well, and would be a guy I like getting back to in this one as well. From the Mavs, they should get Christian Wood back in this one which will hurt the usage and production for guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Spencer Dinwiddie as he demands a bunch of usage in that second unit. I would be more likely to play Dinwiddie than Hardaway still due to the minute’s security and he’s been in great form. Outside of that whole situation, it’s really just Luka Doncic on this team for me. He continues to play well with at least 55 FanDuel points in nine of his last ten games and gets a great matchup in this one.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow, Spencer Dinwiddie
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr.
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Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -10.5
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will continue to run this backcourt and look like solid options at their respective price tags. This game has a nice implied total and will be one I want exposure to. I like going right back to Alperen Sengun again here. He has at least 37 FanDuel points in three of his last four and has a 24.1% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jabari Smith has been a bit more volatile as of late which isn’t unexpected out of a rookie, he would be more of a tournament option for me in this one. I do like Tari Eason, I wish he would get more minutes though. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three games but hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in any game this season. From the Pels, Brandon Ingram has returned for them and isn’t being restricted one bit and will continue moving forward. That said, I touched on it late last week, but with these main three guys all healthy, I don’t think we need to force guys who are appropriately priced. Zion has been a guy I’ve been interested in as of late just due to falling on him at that price, which is kind of how I feel about all these guys.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Eric Gordon, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas
NBA Lock of the Day: Clint Capela (DK – $6.0k; FD – $6.1k)
I love some Clint Capela on this slate even more now that Onyeka Okongwu has been ruled out. Okongwu being out will lock in Capela’s minutes which is the biggest struggle for his production. I touched on it above, but he averaged 35.46 DraftKings points per game in 34 games with Okongwu out last season. He’s had at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last four and has been in great form, they’ll need his size to deal with Embiid down low as well. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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