Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/11:
Nov 9, 2022; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Jevon Carter (5) celebrates after scoring against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. Milwaukee won 136-132 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -4.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look great here even after coming off of a down game last time out. He played only 21 minutes due to foul trouble, but I do like the spot against this Celtics frontcourt to bounce right back in. Michael Porter Jr. has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see as of late but has looked good over his last few games, and we know he has a ceiling in there somewhere. Jamal Murray continues to be a consistent option playing around 30 minutes per night, he feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, however. Then guys like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown all make sense as mid-range GPP options if you land on them as a filler option. Gordon has been sneaky great as of late and dropped a 50 burger on the Pacers last time out. From the Celtics, Jayson Tatum continues to be a great option in all formats, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Jaylen Brown will continue to be a tournament option for me due to the scoring dependency he has, but he’s certainly shown that ability as of late with at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Marcus Smart and Al Horford are fine secondary options and seem like they’re starting to hit their stride a bit. Malcolm Brogdon will miss this game which secures the minutes for Derrick White in the backcourt. I would expect to see 25+ minutes from him in this one tonight and looks like a solid value option at this point in the day.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Al Horford
Deeper Value: Derrick White
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Al Horford, Derrick White
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -7.0
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. We should continue to see Torrey Craig start at PF with Cam Johnson out as well, he’s likely not a guy I want to get a ton of exposure to on a slate of this size. Deandre Ayton busted as a popular option last time out and he was popular due to the price tag that has since gone down. I have no problem going right back to him here for all the reasons we were high on him last time out and now we likely get lower ownership due to some people feeling snakebit. I just don’t get a ton from this team when their healthy, but Devin Booker has looked great this season and would be a guy I wouldn’t talk you off in all formats. He’s coming off of a massive game with Paul out last time out, with that said. Then Mikal Bridges also had a huge game against the Wolves, he’s a solid mid-range play on most slates and that won’t change here. If Paul does sit, I would assume Cameron Payne would enter the starting lineup and would be a really nice option even at an elevated price tag. From the Magic, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on Paolo Banchero as he comes in questionable, but for now, I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays. Banchero has looked good as of late as well with at least 44 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. I can’t say I love the price tag on Wendell Carter Jr. however, he’s only hit 5x this price tag once this season. Franz Wagner seems like a better option but is still priced about where he should be. I would expect Bol Bol continues to continue to start and looks like a nice tournament option at the very least. He’s been a bit volatile, but I love the upside with him. Then we can round this team out with Jalen Suggs who’s playing huge minutes right now and is a guy I don’t mind getting back to, but not sure how much I’ll get here on a bigger slate.
5-star play: Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Paolo Bancher, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs
Deeper Value: Torrey Craig
GPP Sleeper: Wendell Carter Jr., Bol Bol, Jalen Suggs
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -8.0
Starting with the Pistons, I had a good amount of Cade Cunningham last time out due to the price tag, and boy did he play poorly. He was also limited to just 24 minutes, given the questionable tag he carries in this one, I’ll likely fade him even if he plays in case we do get a minutes restriction again. Jaden Ivey has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is the first man in line to get a boost if Cade is out or limited. Bojan Bogdanovic has not been great as of late and is a guy that is extremely scoring-dependent, so he’ll strictly be a tournament-only option for me. Isaiah Stewart got into quick foul trouble last time out but was still able to salvage his day with a double-double, I like the price tag on him again in this one in that mid-range. Then Saddiq Bey has at least 31 DraftKings points in three of his last four but is one of the more volatile guys in the league making him another tournament-only guy. From the Knicks, Julius Randle is a fine option and we’ve seen some consistency out of him as of late with at least 38 DraftKings points in four straight and I like the matchup in this one. I don’t see myself getting to a whole lot of Jalen Brunson this season, both sites have done really well at pricing him appropriately and it really hasn’t moved a bunch since the start of the season, but he’s a fine secondary option coming off of a nice couple of games. RJ Barrett has at least 34 DraftKings points in four of his last five and is slowly starting to shoot better. The Knicks have moved off of Isaiah Hartenstein as a starter which has really hurt his minutes since that 38-minute game against the Celtics. He would be a GPP-only guy for me as long as he’s coming off of the bench. Jericho Sims has gotten the start at the five while Obi Toppin has seen some good minutes as well, both guys would be fine tournament value options.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: Jericho Sims, Obi Toppin
GPP Sleeper: Cade Cunningham, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Hartenstein
Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.5
Starting with the Raptors, they’ll continue to be without Pascal Siakam and now Precious Achiuwa as well which will free up plenty of minutes for Chris Boucher or Christian Koloko. I would expect Koloko to continue to start, but love Boucher as an option off of the bench. Below is how this team operated with Siakam off of the court last season:
- OG Anunoby – 23.2% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 19.7% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Gary Trent Jr – 23.4% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Fred VanVleet – 26.5% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
These are my favorite options which may seem obvious but sprinkle Boucher and Achiuwa in there as well. VanVleet was my lock of the day last time out and he dropped a 50 burger on the Rockets, so he’s a guy I want to go right back to the well with in this one. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to crush with at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will look good again here. I normally don’t target the Raptors much defensively, but Gilgeous-Alexander has been great and the price tag hasn’t caught up with him on DraftKings. The same can’t be said on FanDuel where he’s over $10k. Josh Giddey bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I like going right back to at this price tag which had fallen due to injury and some rust after returning from injury, but he’s too good to be this cheap. Then Lu Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl make sense as secondary pieces in all formats at their respective price tags.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings)
4-star play: OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Christian Koloko
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Lu Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: SA -2.0
Starting with the Bucks, they’ll be without Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo again in this one. We saw MarJon Beauchamp and Bobby Portis enter the starting lineup last time out in their place and will both look great again here. Beauchamp isn’t a huge usage guy or someone that’s going to blow you away with his scoring, but he stuffs the stat sheet and will play a big chunk of minutes in this one. Portis was a bit of a disappointment last time out but I have no problem going right back to him here. The elephant in the room is the game Jevon Carter put up on the Thunder… listen to this stat line, 15-27 from the field going for 36 real-life points combined with 12 assists and 4 rebounds… 62.5 DraftKings points! He should start here again, and the Bucks want him to be more aggressive in scoring the ball which is why he didn’t play more in the postseason last year, clearly, he’s taken that to heart and looks great again here. Then Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen look like solid options as well, while Jordan Nwora is a GPP dart if you land on him in tournaments. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson is going to continue to run this offense and play big minutes, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. He leads the team with a 27.9% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute on the season. Jakob Poeltl has looked better as of late and gets a nice boost here with Giannis out, that said, Lopez has been a great defender, but I still think we can get to Poeltl here. Devin Vassell has at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks like a nice option again in this one. Then we can round the team out with Tre Jones who feels appropriately priced right now, but wouldn’t hate him as a filler option
5-star play: Bobby Portis, Jevon Carter
4-star play: MarJon Beauchamp, Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: Jordan Nwora
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Nwora
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -4.5
Starting with the Wolves, Rudy Gobert returned last time out which immediately hurt the rates for Karl-Anthony Towns as I touched on last time out. Towns losses -4.2% in usage and -0.20 fantasy points per minute with Gobert on the court this season and he’s priced as if Gobert is out, so I’ll wait for that tag to come down a bit… but he’s been in great form with at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Gobert himself looked good in his return and is too cheap here, he’s going to be a great option in all formats. Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell both look like fine tournament options here, they’ve both shown some volatility, but the ceilings are still awesome. Then we can probably hop off of Kyle Anderson with Gobert back in the rotation as well. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been better as of late, I just don’t know how much I love the price tag relative to some of the other spend-up options on the slate. That said, he has one of the higher ceilings on the slate, so it’s warranted depending on the value that opens up. Desmond Bane, on the other hand, has looked awesome and isn’t really impacted by Brooks being on the court and gets a nice matchup here as well. Steven Adams returned last time out and looked great in 37 minutes, I have no issue going back to him if you need a mid-range center option. Dillon Brooks is more of a GPP option, we know he loves to shoot while he’s in there but with Morant and Bane demanding shots as well, it may be hard for him to get as many as he may want. Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke are fine cheap options as well to round out the team.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -2.0
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell continues to produce good numbers even with a down game last time out, he now has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks like a solid option again in this one. Darius Garland was a guy I had a bunch of last time out and he threw up a dud against the Kings. The price tag has come up a bit but I don’t think it’s quite where it needs to be on DraftKings, so I have no issue going right back to him over there. Caris LeVert isn’t a guy I get to a ton when the team is healthy, but he had a nice game last time out, he’s fine for tournaments if you want to go there. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are fine GPP options, but I don’t think we need to force it, I just like the price tag on them both. We kind of know the deal with Kevin Love at this point, he’s going to play 20-25 minutes and if he gets hot he gets hot and you’re going to like him, but there’s no way of predicting it, so just a tournament option. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to dominate coming off of a massive game last time out. He now has a 30.7% usage rate and 1.59 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins had a nice bounce-back game last time out as well but gets a much tougher matchup in this one and would be more of a secondary GPP option for me. Jordan Poole just can’t seem to figure it out off of the bench this season… he’s a fade for me until the price comes down or he proves the price tag is warranted. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are fine options in their price range, but not priorities by any means. Then Kevon Looney will continue to look like a solid value center option if you need one in his range.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry
4-star play: Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -3.5
Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has been pretty good this season and will look good again here in a great matchup against this Lakers’ defense. The same can be said for Domantas Sabonis, outside of Davis down low, there really isn’t anyone on this team that can help guard him. Keegan Murray bounced back nicely last game but seems to have hit a bit of a rookie wall, that said, the minutes will be there and the price tag is nice if you land in his price range. Kevin Huerter finally cooled off over his past couple of games, he’s going to be a shooting-dependent guard moving forward. Then a guy like Harrison Barnes is more of a GPP guy for me in a nice matchup. From the Lakers, they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few games, below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:
- Russell Westbrook – 28.1% usage rate; 1.50 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 30.7% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
- Lonnie Walker – 22.3% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
The sample size on Patrick Beverley wasn’t big enough, but he should see a slight boost as well… but I don’t think we need to get to him here. The main pieces I want are Davis and Westbrook in a great matchup. Westbrook came off of the bench last time out and I wouldn’t expect a change to that here, I wouldn’t worry about that, they’re just trying to stagger the minutes with Davis a bit more, both are great plays in all formats. Then Troy Brown Jr. will likely start in LeBron’s place and will play around 30 minutes, he’s a solid mid-range option to round out the slate.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Lonnie Walker IV, Troy Brown Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Patrick Beverley
NBA Lock of the Day: Jevon Carter (DK – $5.3k; FD – $5.1k)
I’m going right back to Jevon Carter here after a monstrous performance last time out. It might feel like chasing but at this price tag, it makes sense. The Bucks have made it very clear to Carter that he needs to be more aggressive on offense in order to get more minutes, and that’s exactly what he’s done. He shot the ball 27 times last game… and while I don’t expect quite that many again here, the matchup is elite against a bad defensive team again. The numbers are heavily skewed by the last game, but he has a 27.3% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with these main three for the Bucks off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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