Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/10:
Nov 7, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) reacts against the Phoenix Suns in the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 208.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -3.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Mavs, they’ll be without Christian Wood again in this one which opens up minutes and usage in that second unit. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the main benefit of Wood being out this season as he’s seen a +3.9% usage rate and +0.09 fantasy points per minute, he’s going to look like a nice option in this one. In terms of who will fill Wood’s minutes, it will mostly be Maxi Kleber who will look like a fine value as well. He played 33 minutes yesterday and will look good on a short slate in this one. Outside of that whole situation, it’s really just Luka Doncic on this team for me. He continues to play well with at least 55 FanDuel points in nine straight games and gets a great matchup in this one. Then Spencer Dinwiddie is a fine option as well coming off of a nice game yesterday as well, but not a guy I’m prioritizing by any means. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal will continue to be out for this team, so there will be that starting spot open for someone to grab in the rotation. Corey Kispert has been getting the start in Beal’s place, but I’d rather go to the bench with a guy like Will Barton. Barton hasn’t exactly looked great, but the minutes have been there with Beal out, so I like taking the chance on the better-per-minute producer and we know he has upside. Kristaps Porzingis had a 32.1% usage rate and 1.49 fantasy points per minute with Beal off of the court last season and will look like an elite play again in this one even after a rough game last night. Kyle Kuzma saw a nice bump with him out as well with a +3.1% usage increase and +0.08 fantasy points per minute, he’ll look good as well. Then guys like Monte Morris and Rui Hachimura make sense at their respective price tags to round out my interest in the Wizards.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr. Maxi Kleber, Spencer Dinwiddie, Will Barton, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris
Deeper Value: Maxi Kleber, Will Barton, Corey Kispert
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Will Barton, Corey Kispert, Rui Hachimura
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -11.0
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward will be out again in this one. Terry Rozier had a 26.4% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with these other guys off of the court last season. I can’t say I love the price tag, however, they priced him all the way up to $8.6k on DraftKings, I would rather get exposure on FanDuel at $8.0k. That said, it’s still a tough matchup with the Heat, so more of a tournament guy for me in this one. Kelly Oubre Jr. had a nice game last time out but feels appropriately priced, so no real lean for me on him tonight, I do like the ceiling he provides though. PJ Washington has at least 34 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is another guy that looks fine on a short slate. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels are in play as MME options, Plumlee has actually been in pretty good form, so I wouldn’t hate even getting to him in some cash games. From the Heat, Tyler Herro comes in as questionable which is news we’ll want to watch for as well, for the sake of this article I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go. Jimmy Butler hasn’t been crazy good this season, but he’s producing nicely and I do like the matchup a good amount, he’ll look good in this one. I have no problem going back to Bam Adebayo as well, he averaged 48.3 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Hornets last season. Assuming Herro plays, he’ll look good as well, but man the price tag is tough to stomach. The price tag on fat ole Kyle Lowry has come up as well, but he’s been pretty consistent this season and is a solid secondary option.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jalen McDaniels, Dennis Smith Jr., Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Max Strus
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.0
Starting with the Sixers, they’ll continue to be without James Harden, below is how this team operated last season with Harden and Seth Curry (traded mid-season) off of the court:
- Joel Embiid – 41.4% usage rate; 1.71 fpm
- Tyrese Maxey – 24.1% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 25.2% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
I would expect those rates for Maxey to come up a bit as he’s turned into more of a leader in this offense than he was last season, at least until later in the season. De’Anthony Melton should continue to start for Harden as well and looks like a good option as a fantasy point-per-minute guy. The price tag is starting to catch up with him, however. Embiid came into the last game as questionable but played 37 minutes, so I wouldn’t worry about his minutes being restricted at all, he’s right up there with Luka as one of the top raw options on the slate. From the Hawks, Trae Young is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and has been solid, I would have no issue going back to him in this one although he might have a bit more trouble getting to the hoop with Embiid in the middle. This was evident last season, as he averaged just 39.25 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Sixers. Dejounte Murray continues to look great with at least 57 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. John Collins showed his volatility over their last couple of games and would be a GPP-only guy for me due to that volatility we know he has. I do like going right back to the well with Clint Capela though. He’s always a guy that crushes in the minutes he does get, but I would imagine he gets a few more tonight to help defend Embiid in the post. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his last three, so we know the ceiling is there. Then we can round the team out with De’Andre Hunter as a secondary option to fill a roster out.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter
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Portland Trailblazers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -6.5
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard looked much better last night than he did against the Heat in his first game back. I have no problem getting to him again in this one, I like the matchup and this game easily has the highest implied total on the slate at 226. Anfernee Simons’ price tag is fine here, but he’s going to lose about 4.7% in usage according to his season rates with Lillard on the court. Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant ended up sitting yesterday which lead to a bunch of minutes for Drew Eubanks. He did not disappoint in those minutes either, putting up 32 FanDuel points. I would have no issue going right back to him in this one if Nurkic is forced to miss again, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Then guys like Jerami Grant and Josh Hart will continue to play big minutes and are solid secondary pieces as well, I did get to some Justise Winslow last night… I wish I wouldn’t have, he was terrible. He took Grant’s spot in the starting lineup and would likely do the same if he’s forced to miss again tonight. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram has returned for them and isn’t being restricted one bit and will continue moving forward. That said, I touched on it late last week, but with these main three guys all healthy, I don’t think we need to force guys who are appropriately priced like Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Brandon Ingram… I do think we can make a case for Jonas Valanciunas in GPPs simply due to his ceiling, but that’s about it from this team for me on a massive slate. Zion was a guy I ended up getting to a bit more as the day went on yesterday, and is another guy that let me down, but I would have no problem going back to him tonight.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Justise Winslow
NBA Lock of the Day: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DK – $4.0; FD – $4.5k)
We’re going to get funky with today’s lock of the day given the size of the slate… the easy answer here is Maxi Kleber, who is too cheap and filling in for Christian Wood, but we’re going to go with his teammate, Tim Hardaway. Hardaway will see an increase in usage and opportunity without Christian Wood demanding all the second unit usage and we kind of saw this last time out… Hardaway just happened to have an awful day shooting going 2-10 from the field and 1-7 from three-point range. It’s a bit riskier than I normally go with my lock, but I’m going to plant my flag on THJ tonight! At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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