10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

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Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Lamar Jackson – 10% – 16.45 FD Pts

Dak Prescott – 18% –  20.64 FD pts

Kirk Cousins – 8% – 2.2 FD pts

Melvin Gordon III– 2% – 9.5FD pts  

D’Onta Foreman – 7% – 2.4 FD pts 

Nico Collins – 5%  – 7.3 FD pts 

Tyler Boyd – 13% – 5.2 FD pts 

Cordarrelle Patterson– 15% – 10.9 FD pts 

Dalton Schultz– 18% – 3.7 FD pts 

Denver Broncos – 6% – 1 FD pts

Woof. What a brutal week. Not only was it a brutal week, but guys that projected as low owned ended up gaining steam as the weekend went on and became chalk by the time they kicked off on Sunday.

Dak Prescott continued to look strong and the cowboys are NOT a team that I think anyone wants to see in the playoffs.

I literally have nothing else to write here. I got excited when Cpat took one in on a kick return and after that it was a brutal Sunday for me.

Here’s the thing though, we get to do it all again next week! Can’t crush every week and after all the smashes we’ve had in this article we were due a dud.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Jimmy Garappolo QB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $5600/FD $6800

People can talk all the smack they want about Jimmy G, but the reality is that he’s one of the most consistent fantasy performers at the QB position in the NFL.

Does he have the ceiling to win you a GPP on his own? No probably not. But he’s not going to give you an 8 point performance and sink your lineups either. Had 4 passing TD’s last week. He’s a threat even with Mitchell/CMC at the goal line to run one in. He’s about 1k too cheap on FD and almost 1.5K too cheap on DK.

25, 16, 17, 17, 18, 18. That’s how many FD points he’s had his last six games, an average of 18.5 FD points. Comparatively, over their last 6 Lamar Jackson has averaged 16.5 FD points, and Geno Smith matches him at 18.5. Two ‘running’ QB’s with perceived massive ceilings, provided you with the same average value, yet they are priced $800 and $1200 more than Jimmy G.

New Orleans is a mediocre pass defense and have been dealing with a multitude of injuries in their secondary throughout the course of the year. Home QB, 9 point favorites, smash spot for me. Cash lock too.

Taylor Heinicke QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6500

Everyone and their mother are going to be rushing to play the ‘value’ in Bryce Perkins at QB because he scrambled last week for 23 yards (yet forget to mention that he only averages about 28 yards rushing a game in the preseason when he actually played). I will have exactly zero Perkins, which coincidentally is the same number of times he’s dressed for an NFL game prior to last week. Instead I’m going to be playing the guy who is inexplicable cheaper on FD, has started 29 games in his career, and has the superior matchup, Taylor Heinicke. 

Since taking over, Heinicke has gone 4-1, with his only loss coming to the Vikings (SKOL). While he hasn’t thrown a TD pass in two games, he threw 5 in his first three starts. And I think I might even be willing to be that he ends up with more rushing yards than Perkins (if I get a little bit of value on the odds).

Pair him with Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel or both if you are feeling frisky. Jahan Dotson is super cheap on DK too. This game has sneaky shootout potential.

Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $6700/FD $8600

There is potential that we are WAY OFF with our ownership projections on Burrow here, but if we aren’t then this is the slam spot of the century against a Tennessee defense that is giving up on average 3 more points to QB every week than the NFL.

Obviously we could see Burrow become super chalk, especially on DK but on FD that price tag as the second highest priced QB on the slate may keep his ownership fairly low and that’s why he’s staying in this article for now.

Ja’marr Chase is on the mend and he’s my favorite stack piece (Tee Higgins is overrated) and I don’t mind throwing Hayden Hurst in there as well. Don’t chase the Samaje Perine game from last week, that’s fools good. Probably can’t afford Derrick Henry if you are playing him on FD so no run back is really necessary.

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Michael Carter RB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6200

Carter is the de facto #1 back now that Breece Hall has been injured. Even with the addition of James Robinson, Carter has maintained atop the depth chart. Last week’s dud against the Pats (who doesn’t dud against the Pats) notwithstanding, this is a really solid spot against the swiss cheese defense of the Bears. Throw in the fact that the Jets are starting Mike White and we have the potential for Carter to get 15+ touches.

Honestly it could be either Robinson or Carter that gets the work and it’s going to depend on who is the hot hand, but I tend to lean Carter.

Cam Akers RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $4900/FD $5900

As I said above, everyone and their mother is going to think they are sneaky starting Bryce Perkins and he’s going to end up mega chalk. The leverage on Perkins is with the recently cast to the side, now new starter, Cam Akers. 

Akers had 14 touches for 61 yards last week and with a new QB under center, he could potentially see a bigger workload than that even as the Rams look to slow things down here against the high powered Chiefs.

Elite correlated leverage and the price is SO cheap. If I’m going to punt a player this week it will be someone like Akers and not a QB.

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Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $7800/FD $8100

With everyone paying down for cheaper RB’s this week we are going to see guys like Nick Chubb go way under owned. I foresee everyone paying up for the expensive WR’s because of the value they are getting elsewhere and that’s going to leave studs like Chubb with little to no ownership despite being in great spots.

Chubb has gone for multiple TD’s in three games so far this year and while the Bucs are a tough run defense, he’s shown that he tends to excel in these types of matchups. (See the Jets where he rushed for 3 TD’s).

Tons of volume, multiple TD upside, low ownership. Lots to love with Chubb this week.

Demarcus Robinson WR Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $4300/FD $6200

For years we talked about how Robinson was a legitimate WR just needed to get in the right role and that wasn’t available in Kansas City. Due to injuries, it’s been available here in Baltimore and Robinson has smashed. It’s typically hard to get excited about a pass catcher not named Mark Andrews in a Lamar Jackson led offense, but Robinson had even more targets than Andrews last week.

He’s shown big upside here when called upon and Lamar seems to trust him. He’s dealing with a hip injury but he did log a full practice on Friday so should be good to go here.

Super cheap on DK and that’s where I prefer him.

Joshua Palmer WR Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6800

People slept on Palmer last week in the showdown because Mike Williams and Keenen Allen returned but Palmer maintained his relationship with Herbert as one of his most trusted receivers and brought in 8 catches for 106 yards and 2 TD’s.

Williams is out this week and Palmer will likely maintain his role here as one of Herbert’s most targeted players. Arizona is a decent team agasint the pass but the power rankings have the Chargers throwing for over 270 yards. A big chunk of that likely goes to Palmer.

Brandon Aiyuk WR San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $6400/FD $6700

Aiyuk is the WR1 here. I know Deebo finally had a breakout game last week but when it comes down to it, Aiyuk is the true #1 and he’s not priced like it. Last we had two catches and two TD’s, his second multiple TD game of the year.

Really strong matchup against the beat up secondary of the Saints and is a nice pivot off a pretty chalky Deebo Samuel and even leverage off of Christian McCaffrey who is projecting to be high owned again here, even though the matchup isn’t great.

Has double the air yards of anyone on the team over the course of the year and his aDOT of near 10 is elite and gives him big upside here.

Kansas City Chiefs DST (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $2900/FD $4900

The Chiefs aren’t the world’s highest scoring defense but they have been doing a nice job getting after the QB the last few weeks, with 5 sacks in each of the last two games.

Going up against Bryce Perkins is a dream matchup. They could put up a MONSTER score this week. Sacks, picks, fumbles, all in play here. Core play for me and I’ll have close to 100%.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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