Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 7:
Oct 17, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball in the second half against the Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week seven of the NFL season with the Packers heading into Washington as they try to bounce back from back-to-back losses. This offense just looks lost right now and it probably isn’t one that I want to get to all that much until they figure it out. To me, there’s no reason Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon aren’t seeing a combined 30+ touches per game. Jones has shown to be one of the best running backs in the league when given the opportunity. We know the upside is there and the matchup is great, however, so he would be a solid secondary option. I don’t see myself getting to Aaron Rodgers, he hasn’t gone over 20 fantasy points on the season, so I’m not sure the upside is quite there right now. Romeo Doubs leads the team with a 17.4% target share but Allen Lazard has at least 100 yards or a touchdown in every single game of the season. Then last week we saw the emergence of Robert Tonyan on 12 targets, I have no issue going to him as a value tight-end option. From the Commanders, they’ll be without Carson Wentz for the next few weeks which means it’s likely Taylor Heinicke time. I’m not sure it’s a huge downgrade honestly, Wentz has not been good, being held under 10 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Heinicke shouldn’t be a downgrade to the receiving options, but he may have a preference over one more than the other… but the guys I’ll want here are Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. If Jahan Dotson ends up playing, he would be in consideration as well. Generally, I would sway away from whoever is being covered by Jaire Alexander, but the Packers aren’t running man coverage for whatever reason, so it’s not an issue right now. Samuel leads the team with a 21.6% target share on the season. Then we get to this backfield where it’s now Brian Robinson’s job. He saw a 47% snap share while Antonio Gibson didn’t see the field until the 2nd quarter and played just 15 snaps last week. Robinson will be the guy I want here against the Packers that are dead last against the run on the season.
5-star plays: Brian Robinson
4-star plays: Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either of these teams, but there are quite a bit of nice one-offs.
New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the 5-1 Giants, Daniel Jones isn’t doing anything spectacular, but it’s working and winning games. Their main offense is coming thru Saquon Barkley who has looked like one of the better running backs in the league this season. Jacksonville’s run defense has been solid this season, but Barkley is matchup-proof at this point and the dump-off game should help navigate that defense. The receiving game is up in the air right now, Wan’Dale Robinson made his debut in week six and actually was able to find the endzone. That said, he played just 23% of snaps and would be a GPP option at best. Darius Slayton and Marcus Johnson led the receivers in snaps with 69% and 62% of the snap share and are probably the most reliable options if you need to go here, but I’m off of this offense outside of Barkley and maybe a dart throw with Robinson. From the Jags, Trevor Lawrence was helped by two rushing touchdowns in week six which made his DFS production look better than it probably was. He attempted just 22 passes, and he completed 20 of them, but I need more passing from a quarterback I’m looking to roster. This probably isn’t a team that I’m looking to stack around Lawrence with. Christian Kirk has cooled off big time since starting the season hot, but he’s still a solid option in this offense, he still leads the team with a 21.7% target share on the season. Then the backfield has flipped over the past few weeks, Travis Etienne has had the higher snap count in three straight weeks and has simply been more productive. He’s the guy I would want over James Robinson right now.
5-star plays: Saquon Barkley
4-star plays: Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either side of this game either, there really isn’t a ton I love for DFS purposes in this one.
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Falcons, Marcus Mariota had a really nice week against the Niners last week thanks to that rushing floor that he brings to the table. This game has a high implied total, but the Bengals’ defense has been solid as they come in ranked 8th in DVOA. I would imagine the Falcons fall behind quickly, however, which sets up as a nice game script for Mariota. I do think you can pair him up with either Drake London or Kyle Pitts if you want to get whacky and stack around him. London easily leads the team with a 31.4% target share and looks like a great option here while Pitts gives us a high upside cheap tight end option. I’ll likely continue to stay away from this backfield until Cordarrell Patterson returns, neither Tyler Allgeier nor Caleb Huntley has shown me anything that makes me want to roster them. From the Bengals, this offense is going to look like a great stack all around. Joe Burrow had his best game of the season last time out against the Saints and is a guy I like going right back to here. This Falcons defense ranks 29th in DVOA and Burrow will be able to exploit that. You can pair him with any of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and even Hayden Hurst depending on what price range you fall in and what you’re needing with your roster build. I will say, I don’t hate a double stack with one of the receivers and Hurst, as the Falcons have struggled big time with opposing tight ends on the season. Chase leads the team with a 27.5% target share but Higgins and Boyd are getting enough work to be viable in a great matchup at their price tags. Then, Joe Mixon looks good here as well, we’re still waiting for his breakout game, but I think it could come here in an elite matchup against the 25th-ranked run defense.
5-star plays: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase
4-star plays: Marcus Mariota, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst
GPP Note: I think you can make a case for a stack on both sides of this one, but if I could, I would get to the Bengals.
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Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Browns, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t do enough or give us enough upside for me to want to stack around him or use him as a one-off quarterback. That being said, he’s good enough to get the ball to Amari Cooper and David Njoku who will both look like nice options. Cooper has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last five and Njoku has at least 6 targets in four straight games at a weak tight end position. My main interest in this team comes from the backfield with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb is coming off of a rough game last week, but they fell behind early and were unable to establish the run. That’s not to say that can’t happen again here, however. If you do think they fall behind and need to throw, Kareem Hunt will look like a solid option and provides some nice receiving upside out of the backfield. From the Ravens, this Cleveland defense ranks 31st in DVOA, so this offense is going to look awesome. Obviously, we start with Lamar Jackson who has shown a massive ceiling this season and is a guy we can go right back to here. You can either play him naked or pair him up with either Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman. Andrews is the guy I would prioritize if you can find the money, as he comes in with a 31.5% target share and has huge touchdown upside. Then, to the backfield where Kenyan Drake had an awesome game last week with 100 yards and a touchdown. I don’t know that I want to chase that here, but he’s probably the guy I want assuming JK Dobbins is either out or limited again.
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
4-star plays: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Rashod Bateman, Kenyan Drake (if Dobbins is OUT)
GPP Note: The Baltimore side of this one looks great.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Is it Thanksgiving already?! We’ll start with the Lions who get a really tough matchup with this Cowboys defense that ranks 6th in DVOA and 3rd against the pass. This probably won’t be a team I’m looking to stack around Jared Goff, but that doesn’t mean we can’t look at some of these one-off options, I mean, we do have a 49-point implied total here. Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t had a big week since week 2 against the Commanders and will likely matchup with Trevon Diggs which may work in his favor, as he’s no stranger to giving up big plays. I don’t think I can get to the price tag on TJ Hockenson, he got a big boost after his massive weak against Seattle, but if you land on him I won’t talk you off of him. Then, I do think both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are both in play out of the backfield. Assuming Swift is a full go, he brings upside on the ground and thru the air, but we’ll want to make sure he’s not limited at all. If he’s limited whatsoever, Williams will look like a nice option… that being said, if he’s a full go Williams is overpriced. From the Cowboys, it finally sounds like they’re going to get Dak Prescott back and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. I’m going to assume he’s 100% healthy and has full rein of the offense and playbook, so he’s going to look like a great option. He may go under-owned as well given the matchup due to being out for so long. This Lions’ passing defense ranks dead last in the league, so pairing him up with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and even Dalton Schultz makes plenty of sense. I do think we can get to Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield as well, this Lions’ defense isn’t just bad against the pass, they’re terrible against the run as well. He’s also been sneaky consistent too and has at least 60% of the snap share in five straight weeks.
5-star plays: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott
4-star plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
GPP Note: The Dallas side of this one looks great.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game has one of the lower implied totals and the biggest spread on the slate with Tampa favored by 10.5. Tom Brady came back down to Earth last week against Pittsburgh and just doesn’t look great right now. I do like the matchup, but I don’t think they’ll have any issues running away with this one. I probably won’t be stacking up this offense simply because the total is so low and I think 21 points wins this one, but I won’t talk you off of them if you want to go here. Leonard Fournette may be in for a massive week, with that said. He has at least 19 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and this Panthers’ defense is not good. Chris Godwin has been good since coming back from injury giving us a nice floor and we know the ceiling is there for him. The same can be said for Mike Evans who looks good at this price tag. From the Panthers, they just traded away their best player in Christian McCaffery and they can’t seem to figure out how to get the ball to DJ Moore which makes this team really hard to want to get a piece of. There could be some value in the backfield for whoever steps in for McCaffery. I would imagine Chubba Hubbard gets the first cracks at the backfield job and could make sense as a value option, but I just don’t think he’s all that great. There’s pretty much nothing I want from Carolina.
5-star plays: Leonard Fournette
4-star plays: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
GPP Note: I don’t love either of these teams, but Tampa has some playable one-offs.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Colts, Matt Ryan finally showed some upside last week against the Jaguars… that said, I’m not sure we can bank on that each and every week. The price tag is nice though, I think you could do worse if you happen to fall on him, that’s fine. He’s just not going to be a guy I prioritize. Michael Pittman bounced back in a big way last time out with a massive 16 targets… I’ll go right back to him in this spot. Alec Pierce has shown some stability as well which has helped Ryan in the passing game, both guys look like solid options at their respective price tags. It looks like Jonathan Taylor will be back in this one after missing the last couple of weeks. His last game came against this Titans team where he averaged just 2.1 yards per carry. That said, if he’s going to be low-owned due to his injury, I like using him for some leverage even against a tough run defense. From the Titans, there’s really just one guy on this team that I’ll have an interest in. Ryan Tannehill… is not that guy, I wish they would just make the move to Willis already, but we can safely fade Tannehill here. There’s nothing in the receiving game that gets me excited either, I suppose you could make a case for Robert Woods who leads the team with a 21.5% target share on the season, but that’s about it. Derrick Henry is the only guy I’ll have any sort of interest in from this team, for obvious reasons. He’s now had at least 25 DraftKings points in three straight games and when he goes on one of these runs, I want to jump on the train, he’s a great option again here.
5-star plays: Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Robert Woods
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either side of this one, but both running games look great… even for Taylor in a tough matchup, I’ll trust the talent if he’s low-owned.
Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Texans, I want to like Davis Mills here, but he just hasn’t been very good. The reason I want to like him is just due to this Raiders secondary, they rank 30th against the pass and could be in play as a “Silly for the Milly” type stack. It’s not something I want to do in small-field contests, but a stack with Brandin Cooks does have some upside. Cooks leads the team with a 25.3% target share on the season and is in play as a one-off as well. Dameon Pierce has been great with at least 18 DraftKings points in three straight games and they’re making it a priority to get him the ball, he’s a nice option as well. From the Raiders, they’ll look like a strong stack here against a bad Houston defense and are coming off a week of rest. Houston ranks 26th in DVOA, so Derek Carr should be able to take advantage and get the ball down the field. Davante Adams would be my preferred stacking option with him for obvious reasons and will look good again in this one. It feels like Darren Waller is closer to doubtful than questionable, so maybe that opens up more targets for guys like Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins as well. Josh Jacobs looks like a new man this season, he has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks and looks like an elite option again here in what should be a positive game script.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
4-star plays: Brandin Cooks, Dameon Pierce, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Mack Hollins
GPP Note: The Raiders are in play as a full stack… and the Texans are a crazy stack if you’re 150 maxing a tournament.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game comes in with the lowest implied total on the week at 38.5. We’ll start with the red-hot Jets who will be without Elijah Moore this week after he reportedly requested a trade. It sounds like Denzel Mims will take his spot, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than a WR4 type play if that… he hasn’t touched the ball once this season. Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis should benefit from Moore being out if Zach Wilson is able to get them the ball. Wilson leads the team with a 20.7% target share on the season and looks like a nice one-off in all formats, Davis would be more of a tournament option than anything. My real interest in the Jets comes in the backfield with Breece Hall who looks like a wrecking ball right now. He has at least 12 FanDuel points in five straight games and has made himself the workhorse of the backfield. He’s a great option to round out the Jets. From the Broncos, Russell Wilson and this offense looked somewhat competent in the first half against the Chargers on Monday Night, but quickly fell off and back to normal. This offense is just lost right now, so I’m taking a stack of them off of the table. You can still get to these receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton as secondary options, but I’m not touching this backfield. Melvin Gordon has been named the starter after playing just 16% of snaps last week… this team is a mess. I do think we can make a case for Greg Dulcich as a cheap tight end, he saw 71% of snaps last week and had a big touchdown to get this offense going.
5-star plays: Breece Hall
4-star plays: Garrett Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulchich
GPP Note: There’s not a ton I love in this game.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes has been great lately with at least 24 DraftKings points in three straight games. This Niners’ defense is a good one however, they rank 3rd in DVOA which may make this a tough game for this Kansas City offense. I do think we can still get to Mahomes and his pass-catchers in GPPs due to the talent, however. Travis Kelce continues to lead the team in targets with a 22.6% target share, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster come in behind him at 14% and 17%. Those two wide receivers would be GPP options due to the volatility. I don’t really want anything to do with this backfield, it’s a running back by committee at the moment and the Niners rank 1st against the run on the season. Speaking of the Niners, they just made a big splash by acquiring Christian McCaffery who will be active in this one, but sounds like he’ll be in for limited usage and maybe just some red zone packages. I’m not even sure he’s available to use on DraftKings or FanDuel this week, as they have him priced as a Panther… so just avoid him. I would expect the Niners will need to throw the ball in this one and Jimmy Garoppolo threw his most passes last week with 41 pass attempts. That said, he hasn’t shown me enough upside to want to stack around him. He does have some nice pass-catching options we can look to, however. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both have a 21%+ target share on the season and look great here. I knew the Aiyuk breakout was coming and we saw it last week, both guys are firmly in play. George Kittle finally saw double-digit targets last week as well and makes sense as a high-upside tight-end option. As far as the rest of this backfield goes, I do think Jeff Wilson will be the main man this week but with McCaffery there I’m just not sure how much I want to get to Wilson.
5-star plays: Travis Kelce, Deebo Samuel
4-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
GPP Note: The Chiefs would be the only side I want to fully stack, but would leave it for MME as the matchup is very tough.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with the highest implied total on the day for the second straight week. It blows my mind that we’re still looking at Geno Smith as a viable option, but it’s been well warranted as he continues to produce. Seattle is going to have to throw in this one so I have no issue pairing him with either/both of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They both have at least a 23% target share on the season and have a great floor/ceiling combination in this one. Noah Fant has at least five targets in back-to-back games and is an interesting punt option at tight end as well. Ken Walker will continue to dominate the snaps in the backfield and will look good here, this Chargers team has really struggled against the run this season. From the Chargers, the Seahawks rank 26th against the pass on the season, so this offense is going to look good as well. We haven’t really seen a ceiling game from Justin Herbert yet this season and it could be in store in this one. The only issue is it seems like both Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer may miss this game leaving Mike Williams, Deandre Carter, and Gerald Everett to be his main passing options… along with Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is always a guy I have no issue adding to my chargers stacks due to his pass-catching ability.
5-star plays: Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Geno Smith, Ken Walker, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett
GPP Note: Both sides of this one are stackable in a game that has huge shootout potential.
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