Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 6:
Oct 9, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs for a third quarter gain defended by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (91) at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week six of the NFL season with the Jaguars who head into Indy to take on the Colts in this one. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been all that great outside of his three-touchdown performance against the Chargers in week three. This is a good Colts defense that has held opposing teams to 20 or fewer points in three of their first five games. I don’t see this as being a great full-stack against the Colts even with the Lawrence price tag being so cheap. Christian Kirk had a down week last week but still carries a 21.5% target share on the season, so I do think we can get to him as a one-off in his price range. Outside of him, trying to determine which of Zay Jones or Marvin Jones Jr. will have the big week has been a coin flip all season. Both would be more GPP plays than anything for me. Travis Etienne was the better running back last week and saw a 53% snap share which has increased in four straight weeks… he would be the guy I want here over James Robinson as well. From the Colts, Matt Ryan hasn’t really shown me anything that makes me want to get to him either in that Lawrence price range. He does have some options in the receiving game with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce who has 15 targets over his last two games. The big question in this game will be the availability of Jonathan Taylor who missed last week’s game with an injured ankle. Be sure to monitor his practice status throughout the week, but if he plays he’ll look like one the best plays in this game as he looks for a breakout game after a slow start since week 1.
5-star plays: Jonathan Taylor
4-star plays: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman
GPP Note: There’s not a whole lot in this game that I love outside of a few one-offs in tournaments.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Niners, Jimmy Garoppolo has been a fine quarterback for both DFS and real-life game managing, but on a main slate, I just don’t feel like he brings enough upside to fully stack an offense around him. He’s only had one game where he’s attempted 30 passes and that came last week. This Falcons defense is not good ranking 27th in DVOA on the season, however, so there are some pieces of this team that we can look to get to. Jeff Wilson continues to dominate the backfield touches and is coming off his best game of the season. He’ll look like a great option against the 27th-ranked run defense on the season. Then we get to the receiving options in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Deebo leads the team in targets by a substantial amount with a 26.8% target share on the season with Aiyuk behind him at 19.6%. Kittle has really struggled this season, so I think I’m just going to wait for him to prove it to me before I go back to him at tight end. Both Samuel and Aiyuk look like solid options in their price ranges. From the Falcons, it sounds like they’ll get Kyle Pitts back in this one and he has a REALLY juicy price tag on both sites… I’ll probably end up biting and going back to him, but is likely more of a GPP option, but I can’t blame you for going there in cash at this price tag. I don’t want anything to do with the Marcus Mariota game, he’s just not very good and you really need the rushing upside for him to get you there. Drake London has at least seven targets in all but one of his games this season and is a nice option again in this one. Then we get to the backfield which is a wasteland with Cordarrelle Patterson out. Tyler Allgeier is probably the guy you want if you’re going here, he had a 59% snap share last week.
5-star plays: Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson
4-star plays: Brandon Aiyuk, Drake London, Kyle Pitts
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either side of this game either.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Bucs, they were a team I was all over last week and it turned out to work well. Tom Brady looks like a new man with his receivers back in the lineup. He’s had 52 pass attempts in two straight games and looks great again here against the Steelers defense that ranks in the middle of the league in DVOA. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be the main guys you’ll want from this passing game with Julio Jones falling out of consideration as of late. You can certainly throw Leonard Fournette in a stack with Brady as well due to the number of dump-offs he gets, hell he saw 11 targets last week on his way to a massive week. From the Steelers, it’s going to look pretty bleak against a really tough Bucs defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA. Kenny Pickett has been better at targeting guys like Diontae Johnson and George Pickens and would-be guys I think you can make a case for. Chase Claypool is a guy to keep an eye on as well as he saw nine targets last week, but probably not a guy I want to go to quite yet. Then we get to Najee Harris who has had a nightmare season. He’s not getting the dump-off looks that Roethlisberger was feeding him last year, making him so successful. The price tag has come way down, but again, this Bucs frontline is extremely good, so I don’t think he’s a guy I want to get to here either.
5-star plays: Tom Brady
4-star plays: Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, George Pickens
GPP Note: I like going back to the Bucs in this one, but I’m not going crazy with the Steelers side of things in a tough matchup.
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New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Patriots, the big news with this team is the absence of Damien Harris who will be out for a few weeks which opens up Rhamondre Stevenson to be the workhorse of this backfield. Stevenson saw a massive 90% snap share last week and is one of the better running back options even in a tough matchup with this Browns defense. The Patriots want to run the ball and run the ball some more and with no Harris, Stevenson becomes a great option with passing game upside as well. Outside of Stevenson, there isn’t much I’m all that interested in, but Jakobi Meyers is fairly interesting due to the targets he’s getting. He’s coming off of a massive game last time out and has at least 8 targets in two straight games. From the Browns, it’s another offense that I’m not all that interested in due to the quarterback and the upside of the offense as a whole. Amari Cooper easily leads the receiving options with a 26.7% target share on the season and makes sense in all formats, but is a bit boom or bust. The real production lies in the backfield with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks like an elite option yet again here. Hunt is more of a guy I like in higher-scoring games due to his receiving upside but in this price range, you can do worse.
5-star plays: Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb
4-star plays: Jakobi Meyers, Amari Cooper, Kareem Hunt
GPP Note: This is another game where I don’t want to stack either side, but the running games look great.
Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins had his best DFS game of the season last time out against the Bears and the Dolphins currently rank 32nd against the pass on the season. He’s going to look like a nice lower-range option here and a complete stack is firmly in play. His favorite target is pretty obvious with Justin Jefferson who owns a 27.5% target share on the season. He also has at least 33 DraftKings poitns in back-to-back games and looks like a great option here. Guys like Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr. would be more secondary options, but still guys I think you can stack up with Cousins. I loved Dalvin Cook last week and it ended up working out well, but the snap share is certainly concerning. He had just a 53% snap share last week but the price tag is still solid, so he’s firmly in play here as well. From the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa is still out and it sounds like Teddy Bridgewater will be a backup to Skylar Thompson who is set to start this game. Thompson wasn’t terrible from an efficiency standpoint, but I don’t see the upside from him to fully stack the offense at this point in the season. I do think he’s capable enough to hit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle enough to keep them viable. Hill and Waddle are both great guys to get the ball to in the short game and let them do work in open space, so they’re both in play here as well against a bad Vikings secondary. I loved Raheem Mostert last week and it seems like he’s the true workhorse in this backfield. He saw a 69% snap share last week and is a great option again here against the 23rd-ranked run defense on the season.
5-star plays: Justin Jefferson
4-star plays: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert
GPP Note: The Vikings offense looks awesome here, but I don’t see the upside with the Thompson-led Dolphins. They do have some nice one-offs, however.
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Jets side of things as they head into Lambeau where yours truly will have boots on the ground and in attendance to root on the Pack. However, we’re here for DFS… Zach Wilson hasn’t completed more than 18 passes in a game on the season and probably isn’t a guy I want to stack around against a “good” Packers defense. The Packers defense is stacked with talent but hasn’t reached its full potential yet and I don’t think Wilson will have what it takes to put up a true ceiling game. I do like some other options on this team including his receiving options. Garrett Wilson leads the team with a 20.1% target share on the season with nobody else over 15%. That being said, I do think guys like Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are solid tournament options if you fall in that range. Breece Hall was another guy I was all over last week due to the snap share trend coming into the game… and guess what, he broke out with a massive game. He saw a 69% snap share last week and should continue to dominate the backfield against a Packers defense that has struggled against the run, currently ranked 30th in the NFL. Speaking of the Packers, they looked great in the first half against the Giants last week in London but fell off in the second half. I have no issue going right back to this running game with Aaron Jones and even AJ Dillon. They’re both getting yards in bunches when they get the touches, but haven’t really been given the keys yet this season outside of the Bears game. I think there’s a chance this team comes out hot at home against a bad defense and these guys dominate touches for the rest of the game, they both look awesome here. The Jets rank 21st in DVOA on the season, so this whole offense looks great. If you do have interest in stacking around Aaron Rodgers, I do think it’s in play but finding the correct passing option may prove to be difficult with guys like Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and even Randall Cobb showing big games this season. I don’t hate having Aaron Jones with Rodgers as well due to the receiving upside he has.
5-star plays: Breece Hall, Aaron Jones
4-star plays: Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs
GPP Note: I don’t love either of these full stacks, but the Packers would be my choice if I’m stacking one of these teams.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 6!
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Ravens, Lamar Jackson has been held to 15 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is looking to bounce back in this one. The Giants are ranked 25th in DVOA on the season, so I think this looks like a great spot to go right back to him and this Ravens stack. It sounds like Rashod Bateman is closer to doubtful than questionable in this one so the main pass-catching pieces here will be Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. Duvernay saw seven targets last week with Bateman out and will look like a great mid-range option again here. The main guy I would want to stack with Jackson if you can find the money is Andrews who has been dominant to start the season. The backfield isn’t of much interest to me with Jackson absorbing a lot of those red zone carries, but J.K. Dobbins and Kenyan Drake split the backfield snaps at 40% and 42% last week. From the Giants, Daniel Jones has only gotten over 20 FanDuel points once this season and probably won’t be a guy I want to get to here even though teams have torched this Ravens secondary all season. A lot of my interest in him will depend on the availability of most of these receivers… Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Wan’Dale Robinson all come in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption they all miss again here which would leave Darius Slayton as the WR1 on the team. He would look like a solid cheap option if they do end up missing. My main interest comes in Saquon Barkley who has been an elite running back this season. He has at least 19 DraftKings points in four of his five games on the season and would be a guy I want to go right back to on this slate.
***The below assumes Toney, Golladay, and Robinson are all OUT***
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Saquon Barkley
4-star plays: Devin Duverany, Darius Slayton
GPP Note: I love the Ravens side of this game. They’re fully in play as a full stack.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Bengals, we haven’t seen a true ceiling game from Joe Burrow yet this season mostly due to the offensive line giving him zero time to throw the ball. I don’t think we see it here either against a tough Saints defense that ranks 12th in DVOA. His receiving options have been very boom or bust on the season with Tee Higgins coming into this one “very” questionable. The reason I say that is due to him coming in questionable last week and ended up playing just 10 snaps. I’ll be off of him until he proves he’s healthy, but guys like Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd will look solid here if you do want to stack up this offense. I do think we’re in for a breakout week for Joe Mixon in the very near future… but I don’t know that it will be here against his Saints run defense. He makes for a great tournament option if you’re okay with a little risk. From the Saints, there are maybe two guys on this team I like and it’s not a strong like either. I loved Alvin Kamara due to his price tag last week, but good ole Taysom Hill comes out of nowhere to vulture three touchdowns. That being said, he still saw 29 touches and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to… just know that Taysom is lingering somewhere in the weeds. We’ll need to keep an eye on Chris Olave and Michael Thomas who both come in as questionable and haven’t practiced as of Wednesday, if they end up playing they’ll look like secondary options with the quarterback position up in the air depending if Jameis Winston is good to go or not.
5-star plays: Alvin Kamara
4-star plays: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase
GPP Note: The Bengals would be the only stack I want in this game… but this Saints defense is very solid.
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Panthers, it sounds like it will be the PJ Walker show with Sam Darnold on IR and Baker Mayfield out with a high ankle sprain. In the one game Walker started last season we saw Christian McCaffery get 10 receptions and had a massive game. He’s going to look like a great option even against a tough frontline that the Rams will throw at them. McCaffery has been sneaky consistent this season despite the rest of the offense being pretty terrible. It’s tough for the receiving game to get much worse than it has been under Mayfield so I don’t think Walker stepping in will hurt a guy like DJ Moore who will be a fine tournament option. Overall, this offense kinda stinks, but there are some solid one-off options with Moore and McCaffery. From the Rams… they’ve been just about as ugly as the Panthers. This Rams offensive line isn’t giving Matthew Stafford any time to throw the ball and it’s showing with their turnovers this season. Stafford has scored 20 FanDuel points just once this season and won’t be a guy I want to get to until he proves it to me first. I will, however, go right back to the Cooper Kupp well. The guy continues to crush each and every week with at least 28 DraftKings points in four of their five games this season and has a 33% target share. Tyler Higbee has been sneaky good as well with at least 10 targets in three of their five games this season and makes sense as a tight-end option on this slate. Then we get to this backfield that is a complete wasteland right now… until someone starts to run away with this backfield, I’ll be off of them.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery, Cooper Kupp
4-star plays: DJ Moore, Tyler Higbee
GPP Note: Neither team will be a good stacking option here, but there are some good one-offs.
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Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Cardinals, Kyler Murray has been sneaky productive for as bad as the Cardinals have been this season and I think this spot looks great again for him and this team. The Seahawks rank 31st in DVOA on the season, so this offense can take advantage in a big way. I love the Murray stack paired with any of Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz, and even Rondale Moore. Brown leads the team with a 25.1% target share on the season followed by Ertz at 18.7%. I do think Moore will play a bigger role in this offense now that he’s back and healthy, they’re looking for ways to get him the ball. We’ll need to keep an eye on the status of James Conner who hasn’t practiced yet this week, if he’s unable to go Eno Benjamin will be the running back you want from this team. He had a touchdown and a 54% snap share last week and would look like a great value here. From the Seahawks, I just can’t pull the trigger on a full stack around Geno Smith… it just doesn’t feel right, but there’s no denying the production he’s putting up. He has at least 22 FanDuel points in three straight games and honestly doesn’t look like a bad option against this Cardinals defense. He’s been great for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who have been great as well, they’d be the best stacking options with Geno. Then we get to the backfield where Seattle lost Rashaad Penny for the season which opens the door for rookie Kenneth Walker. He looked great last week averaging 11 yards per carry and a touchdown and has a nice price tag here.
5-star plays: Kyler Murray, Kenneth Walker
4-star plays: Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz, Eno Benjamin (if Conner is out), DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
GPP Note: I love the total in this game and think both sides are in play, but the Cardinals look like the better stack to me.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with the game of the week that has the highest implied total on the slate. We’ll start with the Bills where the offense as a whole is going to look awesome. Josh Allen has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks great here even at an elevated price tag. He currently has the highest raw projection on the slate according to the Domination Station. His receivers look great as well, Gabe Davis had a massive week last week, along with Stefon Diggs who has been great all season. It does sound like Isaiah McKenzie will be back here which hurts the production we saw from Khalil Shakir last week. Then, Devin Singletary had a bad week last week but we’ve seen him have an upside this season in the dump-off game, and looks like a nice tournament option here. From the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes had his best game since week one last week against the Raiders and will look great here as well. This Bills defense is good and ranks 2nd in DVOA, but Mahomes is just matchup-proof in my mind. His receiving options are much more inconsistent outside of Travis Kelce, however. We saw Marquez Valdes-Scantling have a nice week last week and we’ve seen JuJu Smith-Schuster have 8 targets in three straight games, but they’re both very volatile. The running game had a down week last week, but that’s bound to happen when Mahomes has his big games and I’m not sure they have the talent to beat the Bills on the ground, so I’m more tempted to stick to Mahomes, and his pass catchers.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
4-star plays: Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster
GPP Note: Both sides of this one are stackable in a game that has huge shootout potential.
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