Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 5:
Oct 2, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) talks with wide receivers Mike Evans (13) and Chris Godwin (14) before their game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week four of the NFL season with the Lions heading into New England to take on… Bailey Zappe? We’ll start on the Detroit side of things where this offense continues to click, partially due to their defense’s inability to stop anybody. We’ll need to keep an eye on the injury report as D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown both come in as questionable. I’m more confident that St. Brown will play, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re both out again. Jared Goff had a massive week along with the rest of this offense last week, but I don’t think this Patriots offense will be able to put up points like we’ve seen other teams do to this Detroit defense this season. That being said, I don’t think Goff will need to air it out and play catchup as much in this one. I do still think he’s still in play due to the ceiling he’s shown this season, however. Jamaal Williams looks like a great option assuming Swift is out again here. He has at least 24.7 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and leads the league in touchdowns with six on the season. TJ Hockenson would be a guy we can go right back to as well, he had a massive week last week with 12 targets but could see some of that fade if St. Brown is able to give it a go. There are some ancillary receiving options here as well depending on the health of St. Brown and even DJ Chark who missed last week’s game. Josh Reynolds and even Kalif Raymond come into play if they miss. On the Patriots side of things, we don’t really know who’s starting at quarterback yet as Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer are both questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption it’ll be the Zappe show, however. I don’t want much exposure to this offense even in an elite matchup with this Lions defense. If Jakobi Meyers is available, he would certainly in play, otherwise, I’ll be sticking with this run game. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson continue to split snaps and both look like nice options here. The Lions rank 32nd against the run on the season.
***The below assumes D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are OUT***
5-star plays: Jamaal Williams, TJ Hockenson
4-star plays: Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson
GPP Note: Probably not a game where I want to stack either side simply to how slow I think the Patriots want to play on offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game has the highest spread of the season with Buffalo opening up as two-touchdown favorites against the Steelers at home. Starting with the Steelers, it will be the Kenny Pickett show moving forward after he took over for Mitch Trubisky last week. That being said, this could be an ugly game for him and this Steelers offense. The Bills defense ranks 2nd in DVOA and 1st against the pass on the season. I don’t want anything to do with starting Pickett in DFS, but I do think we can get to some of his receiving options. They’re going to have to throw in this game to keep up with Buffalo, so guys like Diontae Johnson and George Pickens make sense as GPP options. It’s worth noting, he had a 30% target share as soon as Kenny Pickett entered the game. I’ll likely hold off on rostering Chase Claypool until we see him do something this season. Johnson easily leads the team with a 28.7% target rate on the season. We could see them be more reliant on the run as well, so Najee Harris is a guy I think we can make a case for as he offers receiving upside with potential dump-offs if Pickett gets in trouble. From the Bills, this whole offense looks great again here. Josh Allen has at least 24 FanDuel points in each game this season and looks like an elite option yet again. Pairing him with any of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, or Isaiah McKenzie makes plenty of sense depending on what price range you want to fall into. Speaking of McKenzie, I think he could take a nice jump here with Jamison Crowder out with a broken ankle. Then Devin Singletary continues to dominate the snap share in the backfield and makes sense as a GPP option and is a guy I don’t hate adding to my Allen stacks, he’s seen 16 targets over his last two games.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
4-star plays: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Devin Singletary
GPP Note: The Bills are an elite team stack on this slate.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Texans, Davis Mills hasn’t really shown us enough of a ceiling this season for me to have a whole lot of interest in him here, so probably not a full stack that I want to get to. That being said, he’s looking Brandin Cooks‘ way quite a bit again this season, Cooks has a 25.4% target share on the season and is a guy I want to go right back to here. We also saw a Dameon Pierce breakout game last time out against the Chargers and looks like the real deal. He saw his highest snap rate on the season at 68% last week and even saw six targets, I like going back to the Pierce well again here. From the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence had a rough day hanging onto the football in rainy Philadelphia last week, but heads back home in this one. The Texans rank 27th in DVOA on the season, so I think this Jags stack could be sneaky. We know Lawrence has the upside and is looking toward Christian Kirk and Zay Jones quite a bit. Kirk has at least nine targets in three of their four games and is a guy I’ll go right back to here. Zay Jones missed last week’s game and comes in as questionable here, we saw Jamal Agnew score two touchdowns in his place, and would be a nice value option if Jones ends up missing again. The backfield didn’t really have a chance to get going last week as they fell behind pretty quickly, but James Robinson is the guy I want back there as he’s simply just shown more production this season.
5-star plays: Trevor Lawrence, Brandin Cooks
4-star plays: Dameon Pierce, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, James Robinson
GPP Note: I think the Jaguars could be sneaky as a stack on this slate.
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Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Falcons, this offense is a mess… Marcus Mariota can’t seem to get the ball to their top receiving options in Drake London and Kyle Pitts and now Corrdarrelle Patterson is on IR. Before we get to the backfield, London and Pitts have some really nice price tags and I would expect them to have to throw in this game assuming they fall behind early. I like taking a chance on both of them in this spot. With Patterson on IR, we’ll see a combination of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. Allgeier lead the backfield with a 44% snap share last week but Huntley scored the touchdown. I think my preferred option would still be Allgeier, but honestly, eight of them stand out too much to me against the Bucs defense that ranks 4th in DVOA. Speaking of the Bucs, Tom Brady finally got the offense going last week against the Chiefs and this looks like an elite matchup to continue that here. We saw all three of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones return last week and none of them looked all that limited. The guys I would want are Evans and Godwin however, Julio just isn’t seeing the snap share that I would want. Then I think we can go right back to the well with Leonard Fournette as well, the game script sets up really nicely for him, and has at least 18 DraftKings points in two of their four games this season.
5-star plays: Tom Brady, Kyle Pitts
4-star plays: Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Drake London, Tyler Allgeier
GPP Note: The Buccaneers look like a nice team stack here.
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the current MVP of the league in Geno Smith… I’m joking… maybe? They ripped apart a bad Detroit defense last week, but I don’t think that success will be as easy against the Saints who rank 9th in DVOA. The nice thing to see from Geno is the ability to get his receiving options the ball though. DK Metcalf has at least 10 targets in back-to-back games and Tyler Lockett has at least 14 DraftKings points in three straight. Even if we’re not stacking the whole offense, we can at least look at these receiving options at one-offs. Metcalf and Lockett easily lead the team in targets with a combined target share of 51.9%… they’re great options again here. Rashaad Penny finally broke out last week as well and has a 69% snap share over their last two weeks. It won’t be as easy to run on this Saints team, but he’s in play in the mid-range at the very least. From the Saints, Jameis Winston comes into this one as questionable after missing last week. If he’s forced to miss, it will be the Andy Dalton show again, but I’m not sure we really care from a DFS perspective, we’re not playing either of these guys… unless Winston has a clean bill of health. Michael Thomas also missed in week three and comes in as questionable here, in his absence Chris Olave continued to produce. He has at least seven targets in three straight games and will be a nice option again here regardless of who plays quarterback. Thomas would be firmly in play as well if he’s able to give it a go. Alvin Kamara has now missed two of their four games and comes in as questionable here, he would be a very interesting option if he’s active in this one, especially at this price tag… I would likely have a bunch of him even though he hasn’t exactly shown us anything this season.
5-star plays: Alvin Kamara
4-star plays: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Rashaad Penny, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either of these offenses, but there are a bunch of nice one-off options.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Chargers side of things, Justin Herbert has been solid this season with at least 23 DraftKings points in three of his last four but we haven’t seen that massive ceiling game quite yet. The Cleveland defense currently ranks 30th in DVOA, so I think that is certainly possible in this spot. Keenan Allen will come in as questionable yet again after being out since week 1. If he plays I think I would still want to see it from him to make sure he’s not limited, but I’ll go right back to the well by pairing Herbert with Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Austin Ekeler, and even Joshua Palmer. I have no issue throwing Ekeler in your stacks as well, as we saw last week, the receiving upside is certainly there which correlates perfectly with Herbert. From the Browns, I won’t be stacking this Jacoby Brissett offense any time soon, but he has been looking toward guys like Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku quite a bit. I won’t have a ton of interest in Peoples-Jones but Cooper and Njoku are firmly in play at their price tags. The real interest comes in this backfield with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb continues to dominate with at least 20 DraftKings points in three straight while Hunt always has some upside in his price range as well.
5-star plays: Justin Herbert, Nick Chubb
4-star plays: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, Austin Ekeler
GPP Note: I’ll be sure to get some exposure to this Chargers stack. The Browns aren’t in play as a stack as long as Brissett is running the offense.
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Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Bears, this offense is just putrid right now, they haven’t scored over 20 points yet this season and Justin Fields‘ game-high for pass attempts came last time out with 22. I don’t see any reason to attack really any of this Bears’ passing game, the volume just isn’t there right now. We’ll need to keep an eye on the availability of David Montgomery who comes in as questionable again here. He missed last week which led to Khalil Herbert being the workhorse and seeing 77% of the offensive snaps. If Montgomery is forced to miss again, he would be a guy I want to go right back to against the Vikings 27th ranked run defense. Speaking of the Vikings, this offense will look good again here… and maybe a breakout game for Dalvin Cook against the Bears’ 24th-ranked run defense? I like Cook a good amount this week especially if he’s going to come in low-owned. We know Kirk Cousins is going to do enough to get the ball to guys like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but he hasn’t really shown us a ceiling game from himself yet this season and with how slow the Bears want to play, I don’t think we see it here. Jefferson had a huge bounce-back week last time out and is a guy we can go right back to in this one, he has at least 11 targets in three of their four games this season.
5-star plays: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook
4-star plays: Khalil Herbert (if David Montgomery is OUT), Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr.
GPP Note: Just one-offs in this game for me.
Tennesse Titans @ Washington Commanders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Titans, this passing game is just about as gross as the Bears… there’s more volume, but I think it’s time to throw Malik Willis out there personally, Ryan Tannehill isn’t getting it done. Not to mention, they lose Treylon Burks who is likely to miss some time with turf toe. I would expect guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips to fill in for him while he’s out and could be worth a flyer as a value option. Robert Woods will continue to be the guy I want in the receiving game however, he leads the team with a 19% target rate and should only go up with Burks out. Derrick Henry is my only true interest on this team, he has at least 22 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and even though the Commanders rank 6th against the run on the season, I still think you can run on them and Henry is matchup-proof. From the Commanders, after going scorched Earth in the first two weeks, Carson Wentz has face-planted over their last two games. His struggles have led Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson to see some decrease in production as well. It’s worth noting that Dotson has been held out of practice due to a hamstring injury, so if he’s forced to miss that may funnel more targets to McLaurin and Samuel. I still think you can get to these guys despite Wentz, but he certainly makes them more volatile. Antonio Gibson will continue to be the guy I want currently in this backfield until Brian Robinson is activated, but more of a tournament guy here as well.
5-star plays: Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, Robert Woods
GPP Note: I don’t really want to stack either side of this game, if you want to throw a few Commanders stacks in your 150 lineups, sure… but that’s about it.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Dolphins who will be without Tua Tagovailoa here, so we’ll be looking at the Teddy Bridgewater show for what seems like at least the next few games. Bridgewater came in on Thursday Night Football and was competent in running the offense, so I don’t think we need to worry too much about his ability to get the ball to the main guys on this team. I don’t think Bridgewater has the upside to fully stack the offense, however. Tyreek Hill had a massive game in that matchup with the Bengals and leads the team with a 30.7% target share on the season. Jaylen Waddle was clearly hobbled in that game but is right there with Hill with a 25% target share and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in a great matchup with the Jets. The backfield is the really interesting piece of this team, Raheem Mostert appears to have taken over as the workhorse for this team as he saw 72% of snaps last time out. I like taking a flyer on him here, the Dolphins may look toward the backfield more with Tua out in this one. From the Jets, Zach Wilson was fine last week, his fantasy day was saved by a receiving touchdown. We saw target numbers fall for guys like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, but in a game where I think they’ll need to play catchup, they may need to throw more making these guys look like solid secondary options, especially for tournaments. Much like the Dolphins, it seems like the Jets may be narrowing in on a workhorse running back as Breece Hall saw 66% of the offensive snaps last week. He looks like a solid option again here even in a tough matchup with this Miami front line.
5-star plays: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
4-star plays: Raheem Mostert, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Breece Hall
GPP Note: I don’t really want to fully stack either side of this one.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games where we get to the lowest implied total on the slate at 39.5. We’ll start with the Niners where I don’t think a full stack is anywhere near in play here. Jimmy Garoppolo is good enough to get the ball to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel who both look like good options on this slate, however. Deebo is coming off of a huge game last time out in what could have been even bigger but he missed his second touchdown by inches. I do think a breakout game is coming for Aiyuk, I don’t know if it will be this week, but I think it’s coming. He is running 91.7% of routes and has a 29.8% share of the air yards on this team. He’s a solid tournament option in this price range. Then we get to the backfield where Jeff Wilson has a stranglehold on the carriers and is someone who looks solid again in this spot. I should mention George Kittle as well who has struggled big time to start the season, I’ll likely wait until he shows us production before going back to him again. From the Panthers, I thought we were in for a breakout week for Christian McCaffery last week. He was fine, but I’m still waiting to see that 30+ fantasy point game from him. The nice thing is we finally saw the nine targets we’re more accustomed to seeing, I have no issue going right back to him here. I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to get the ball to any of his other targets, however. DJ Moore has been one of the more frustrating rosters this season, but he did see 11 targets last time out, and makes sense as a GPP guy here.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel
4-star plays: DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jeff Wilson
GPP Note: I’m not fully stacking either side of this one.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Cowboys, it doesn’t sound like Dak Prescott will be back for this one even though he did return as a limited participant in practice today. That being said, it’ll be the Cooper Rush show again here. Rush has done a great job in winning games for the Cowboys, but he hasn’t shown enough of an upside to play in DFS. He does continue to find CeeDee Lamb with plenty of volume, he has a 32.1% target share on the season and looks like a great option again in this one. Michael Gallup returned in limited form last week to play 64% of the snaps, I would expect that to come up a bit here and makes sense as a tournament option if Jalen Ramsey successfully shuts down Lamb. I don’t have a ton of interest in this Cowboys backfield, but Ezekiel Elliott would be the guy I want if I were to go there. From the Rams, this offense looks lost right now outside of Matthew Stafford hyper-targeting Cooper Kupp. I don’t have any interest in Stafford right now, he’s just not been good. That being said, Kupp is a lock-and-load play again in this one. He has a 36% target share on the season and fun fact he has more catches than Justin Fields has completions. The backfield is a bit of a mess as well, I’ll hold off on playing anyone from that situation until someone takes over as the lead back. Allen Robinson has been a disaster… really the only other option I like on this team is Tyler Higbee who has a 25.3% target share on the season and has been one of the better producing tight ends in the league.
5-star plays: Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb
4-star plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup, Tyler Higbee
GPP Note: I’m not stacking either side of this one.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with the highest implied total on the slate at 49.5. Starting with the Eagles, Jalen Hurts continues to ball… he had a rough game last time out but the weather conditions were not good, so I’m going to look past it as we go to a dome in this one. He’s an elite option on this slate and leads an offense that I want to stack. The top stacking options are pretty obvious with AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Brown leads the team with a 30.9% target share while Smith is right behind him at 22%. You can throw Miles Sanders in a Hurts stack as well, he’s coming off of an absolutely huge game last week in those rainy conditions. From the Cardinals, even when Kyler Murray seems like he’s having a bad game from the eye test, he puts up nice fantasy numbers. I have no issue going back to him in this spot. You can play him naked or pair him up with Marquise Brown or Zach Ertz… maybe even some Greg Dortch. Brown leads the team with a 25.4% target share and would be my favorite option. James Conner is the workhorse back but hasn’t really shown a whole lot of anything this season and gets vultured by Kyler on the goal line quite a bit.
5-star plays: Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown
4-star plays: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Kyler Murray, Zach Ertz
GPP Note: Both sides of this one are stackable, my preferred side is the Philly offense, however.
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