The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!
Oct 30, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Divine Deablo (5) during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
58 points, 60 points, 71 points, & 78 points; These were some of the final game totals on a slate where the projected game totals were low and only one game was projected for over 50 points. Needless to say, these games were ripe for stacking and likely would produce several players for the Milly Maker Winner. Would they produce some of the Chalky stacks or more contrarian? Let’s see.
| Week 8 Milly Maker Lineup | Points |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 32.18 |
| Alvin Kamara | 42.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 36.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 34.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 33.6 |
| Garrett Wilson | 20.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | 25.9 |
| DJ Moore | 30.5 |
| Saints DST | 16 |
| Total | 272.68 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1D1bdbkE4c[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack
Tua Tagovailoa 32.18 + Tyreek Hill 34.5 + Jaylen Waddle 33.6
Stacking Points: 100.28
Stacking Ownership: 73.34%
Secondary Stacks
Garrett Wilson 20.5 + Tyler Conklin 25.9
Stacking Points: 46.64
Stacking Ownership: 8.99%
Alvin Kamara 42.8 + Saints DST 16
Stacking Points: 58.8
Stacking Ownership: 13.37%
Total Stacking Points: 205.48
Total Stacking Ownership: 95.7%
One thing that stood out to me when looking at these stacks, was that DFS Army was all over it in the Coaches notes, and the Statsational Power Rankings that had the Miami/Detroit and New Orleans game as game environments to target under This Weeks Projections.
Despite being a very chalky + 2 stack with Tua, Hill and Waddle both smashed to bring Tua along with them for a combined 100 points. There were 2 secondary stacks included in this build as well and they were really what this lineup needed from a leverage standpoint as most of the field was on Tua, Hill, and Waddle.
Kamara by himself wasn’t really a great leverage play at 12% ownership, but paired with the .87% owned Defense, it was a great stack to differentiate this lineup.
Garrett Wilson kept coming up in the Optimizer at DFS Army, so I’m not at all surprised that he made his way into the Winning build as he was a great play, but Conklin really made this stack at his price, production, and ownership.
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 8 Milly Maker Lineup | Ownership |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21.15% |
| Alvin Kamara | 12.50% |
| Tony Pollard | 50.92% |
| Tyreek Hill | 28.76% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 23.43% |
| Garrett Wilson | 7.43% |
| Tyler Conklin | 1.56% |
| DJ Moore | 27.62% |
| Saints DST | 0.87% |
| Total | 174.24% |
With an average total ownership of 102% through the first month of the NFL DFS Season, we now have seen the average total ownership climb 17% to an average of 119% for winning Milly Maker Lineups after 8 weeks of the season.
In back-to-back weeks, we’ve seen ownership totals skyrocket to levels that we haven’t seen in years. A huge contributing factor to these inflated ownership totals was Tony Pollard at 50%. As I wrote about here, when a talented back-up Running Back gets thrust into a starting role, they provide exceptional value, and the field just eats the chalk and looks to get different elsewhere. We’ve seen winning lineups do this time and time again. What was different this week – compared to most other winning lineups – is that the lineup was also built around a really chalky game stack of Tua, Hill, and Waddle at a combined 73%.
Nonetheless, there were still a few great leverage plays despite the sky-high total ownership.
Top Leverage Plays
Garrett Wilson at 7.43%
With Elijah Moore out and Breece Hall on Injured reserve, Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin became the focal points of the offense. They combined for 17 targets, 200 yards, and 2 touchdowns. On a slate with fantastic game environments that the field flocked to, these two were great leverage plays at low pricing and ownership with ample opportunities within the offense.
Tyler Conklin at 1.56%
Conklin was the top leverage play of the day at 1.56% ownership and hitting 8X his salary. Furthermore, he was the top scoring Tight End and would’ve been just outside the top 5 in scoring for all pass catchers.
Saints DST at .87%
Anytime you can nail the top scoring DST and Tight End – two positions of extremely high variance – you know you’ve constructed a great lineup. The Saints DST was the highest scoring Defense and less than 1% owned. Fantastic leverage play.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 8 Milly Maker Lineup | Pricing | FPTS Per Dollar |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,200 | 5.19X |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,100 | 6.02X |
| Tony Pollard | $6,100 | 6.01X |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,500 | 4.05X |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,700 | 5.01X |
| Garrett Wilson | $4,200 | 4.88X |
| Tyler Conklin | $3,200 | 8.09X |
| DJ Moore | $5,300 | 5.75X |
| Saints DST | $2,700 | 5.92X |
| Total | $50,000 | 5.45X |
With Kamara and Pollard both underpriced in regard to their actual value and ceiling, this is how you’ll see a lineup with several players paying off their salary at over 6X and thus having an average of 5.45X across the entire lineup. Paying down at Defense, Tight End, and one of the Wide receivers also afforded the ability to fit the expensive $21,400 Tua/Hill/Waddle stack into this lineup that provided 100 points of this high scoring 272-point lineup.
Ceiling
After 8 weeks of the NFL Season, we now have a scoring average of 249 points. When the scores were lower, the skinny stacks and optimal one offs dominated the leaderboards. When the scores were higher like they were this week, we normally see a QB + 2 and 1-2 other secondary stacks.
Knowing when that week will be is tricky but if you trust your projection model and have access to projections tools like the Statsational Power Rankings at DFS Army – that had the Miami Offense throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 30+ points – then zeroing in on that correct stack is much easier!
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