Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs for a touchdown in the second quarter during an NFL Week 6 game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
Cincinnati Bengals At New Orleans Saints Oct 16 023
Week 6 of the NFL Season felt a lot like 2021 when we’d talk up the great game environments that projected over 50 points, we built our GPP stacks around those games, then the game totals went under, and the winning Milly Maker lineups only had small pieces from those hyped-up games.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFgd5dUFkac[/embedyt]
Allen, Diggs, and Juju Smashed and were in many top 100 Lineups of the Milly Maker but out of the highly anticipated Buffalo and Kansas City game, only Juju was in the winning Milly Maker build; So, who got the top spot of the day at QB? Lamar? Brady? Murray? Nope. Let’s take a look!
| Milly Maker Lineup | Points |
| Joe Burrow | 35.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 18.4 |
| Deon Jackson | 28.1 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | 25.3 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 20.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 28.3 |
| Robert Tonyan | 19 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 35.2 |
| Cardinals DST | 14 |
| Total | 224.7 |
Stacking
Primary Stack: Joe Burrow 35.5 + Ja’Marr Chase 35.2 + Alvin Kamara 18.4
Total Stacking Points: 89.1 Fantasy Points
3 Player Average: 29.7 Fantasy Points
Scoring is down. I had seen somewhere that this is the lowest scoring since the start of the 2017 season, so I did a little digging to back that up and you can see here via pro football reference that a team average of 21.7 points is the lowest we’ve seen since 2017. What that means for stacking is most weeks skinny stacks are going to be what takes down large field GPP’s like the Milly Maker. We’ve seen 4 out of 6 weeks where the Primary stack only had a QB + 1 Pass catcher. Week 6 was the one time in this scenario where a bring back option (Kamara) was used but this wasn’t even necessary for the winning build as there were better, cheaper plays than Kamara like $6,000 Rhiamondre Stevenson who scored 6.4 more points.
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Milly Maker Lineup | Ownership |
| Joe Burrow | 4.44% |
| Alvin Kamara | 12.71% |
| Deon Jackson | 8.50% |
| Juju Smith-Shuster | 4.88% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3.22% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2.44% |
| Robert Tonyan | 2.63% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 14.74% |
| Cardinals DST | 0.58% |
| Total | 54.14% |
What’s surprising in this lineup is that in a week when we had Eno Benjamin, Kenneth Walker, Rhiamondre Stevenson, and Darrell Henderson Chalk, this lineup faded all of those players and thus was drastically under the field in total ownership. At first glance, you might think that’s exactly how you win a GPP, and yes, it’s the easiest way to leverage the field. However, when you have massively underpriced players relative to their role that week, you are more likely to see a rise in total ownership as we did in week 4 when 35% owned Jamaal Williams was in the winning lineup and the total ownership was 121%.
For correlation purposes, you can see that WestChesterBC included Kamara as the bring back in the Burrow/Chase stack as opposed to playing one of the chalk Running Backs as a one off. When paired with Deon Jackson and Chase in the flex, this lineup got off the 3 RB build that the field chose and kept this trio just under the 39% ownership that Rhiamondre garnered.
Overall, this extremely low owned build of 54% ownership brought the seasonal average down to 98% after 6 weeks.
Top Leverage Plays
Deon Jackson at 8.5%
Deon Jackson was a sharp play as he looked like the best back last week vs Denver. With Hines and Taylor both out of the lineup again, Deon Jackson at 8.5% was a great way to get off of the value RB chalk that the field was on.
Joe Burrow at 4.4%
Another sharp play here with Burrow as a way to get different from the field that was all over Josh Allen and Geno Smith. With Lattimore out and Ja’Marr Chase being an elite play at 14% ownership, why wasn’t more of the field on Burrow? I asked myself on Sunday why I had 44% exposure to Chase and zero exposure to Burrow.
Burrow was the top leverage play on the slate as the highest scorer and under 5% ownership.
Juju Smith-Schuster at 4.88%
The best way to get direct leverage in a game with Chalky players like Diggs, MVS, and Kelce is play Juju at under 5% ownership.
Brandon Aiyuk at 2.44%
Aiyuk was extremely low owned, but it was a plus matchup so clearly the field should’ve been more on Aiyuk. His 11 targets turned into 83 yards and two touchdowns.
Robert Tonyan at 2.63%
On a slate with Andrews, Kelce, and Ertz getting most of the ownership, Tonyan was top 4 in scoring at only 2% ownership and $3600.
Cardinals DST at .58%
They were top 3 in scoring and less than 1% owned. With Defenses being so high variance, this is a perfect example of why you embrace it at low ownership as this game was projected as high scoring, so the field avoided it.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Milly Maker Lineup | Pricing | FPTS Per $ |
| Joe Burrow | $6,700 | 5.29X |
| Alvin Kamara | $6,700 | 2.74X |
| Deon Jackson | $5,200 | 5.40X |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | $5,200 | 4.86X |
| Jaylen Waddle | $6,200 | 3.37X |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,400 | 5.24X |
| Robert Tonyan | $3,600 | 5.27X |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,700 | 4.57X |
| Cardinals DST | $3,300 | 4.24X |
| Total | $50,000 | 4.49X |
This is the first lineup in all of 2021 and 2022 that didn’t hit 6X with at least one position group. The lower the score that wins the Milly Maker, the more of a chance there is of that happening. However, even the 210-point lineup that won in week 3 had 2 players over 6x. That said, this lineup had 4 players over 5X, so it was still efficient. By avoiding the top pay up option of Allen at QB, this lineup had the salary savings to afford $7700 Chase which is awfully close to that 8K salary range that we haven’t seen from an RB or WR in a winning Milly Maker lineup this season.
We’ve also had several lineups this year with a DST under $3000 but this week with a Defense over $3,000 was more of what we saw in all of 2020 and 2021 when the average price of Defense was $3,000.
Ceiling
After 6 weeks, the average score in the Milly Maker is declining after we had a hot start to the season. Despite several weeks of over 250 points, (251, 284, 252) we’ve had weeks of 210, 244, and now 224 to bring the average below 250 points to a seasonal average of 244 points. With scoring down to the lowest it’s been since 2017, it’s likely we’ll have an average closer to the 233 we saw in 2021, than the 250+ we saw to start the season.
As long as scoring stays low, the skinny stacks are going to dominate the leaderboards most weeks and the right combination of optimal plays will likely be more prevalent than big stacks like we saw in weeks 2 and 4.
Be sure to subscribe to DFS Army’s Youtube Channel so you don’t miss the MME & Milly Maker Review each week!
If you want to use the tools that multiple DFS Army VIP’s have used to win $1,000,000, right now you can try a VIP Membership free for 30 days. That’s right! To gain access to coaching, content, and tools that our members are using to put their names on top of the leaderboards in every DFS Contest, click HERE!
