Oct 9, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
The Week 5 Milly Maker Leaderboard said goodbye to the Dupe Train of Geno Smith stacks, and in fact, no Geno lineups were anywhere near the top of the Leaderboard despite Geno having another great game. This time the Top Lineup and all the top finishers below it started with Josh Allen at the top. Looking back at the slate, were we surprised? Allen’s Bills were facing a Steelers team with a Rookie QB making his first start and facing tough odds as 14-point underdogs. In a game projected as non-competitive, we can’t expect a 6-player game stack like the one we saw in the Week 4 Milly Maker review, but there are other ways to stack so let’s take a look at what won.
| Josh Allen | 39.16 |
| Leonard Fournette | 35.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 27.4 |
| Gabriel Davis | 35.1 |
| Chris Godwin | 12.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | 30.4 |
| Cade Otton | 10.3 |
| Breece Hall | 30.7 |
| Cowboys DST | 23 |
| Total | 244.26 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr5-zmy6B4Q[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Allen 39.16 + Davis 35.1 (QB + WR) = 74.26 PTS
Secondary Stacks:
Fournette 35.9 + Godwin 12.3 + Otton 10.3 (RB + WR + TE) = 58.5 PTS
Kamara 27.4 + Lockett 30.4 (RB + Opp. WR) = 57.8 PTS
Total Stacking Points: 190.56
7 Player Average: 27.22
I tweeted this out here on Wednesday: “I think you must have some exposure to Buffalo team stacks this week. 47-point game total for a 14-point spread is a lot of scoring & projects as one sided. 30.5-point team total for Buffalo. I’m not forcing bring backs.” A lot of people want to avoid stacking in games that are projected as non-competitive, but we’ve found from studying past slates that the heavily favored team can still do plenty of scoring on their way to being in ‘the nuts’ lineup. The catch is to keep the stacks skinny and not force bring backs.
The Buffalo game played out just that way as their team total was 38 points, and this resulted in a combined 74.26 Fantasy Points for Josh Allen and Gabriel Davis – the top stack of the day.
The other 2 secondary stacks each scored about 58 points and kept the 7-player average at 27.22 fantasy points which is exactly the average that we need to hit that 250-point GPP winning target. Another observation to note is this lineup had stacks from 3 different games which is something we saw a lot in 2021 but haven’t seen much this year yet.
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Josh Allen | 12.10% |
| Leonard Fournette | 14.11% |
| Alvin Kamara | 13.95% |
| Gabriel Davis | 7.49% |
| Chris Godwin | 27.02% |
| Tyler Lockett | 13.38% |
| Cade Otton | 7.81% |
| Breece Hall | 9.61% |
| Cowboys DST | 22.70% |
| Total | 128.17% |
When the chalk smashes, you will see much higher ownership numbers across all contests and the Milly Maker is no different. Probably the most shocking number here is the Cowboys DST being 22% owned. When studying trends of the 2021 Milly Maker Winners, the highest number we saw all season was 14.89%. With 10 weeks at under 5% or less, we had a seasonal average of 7%. Obviously 22% ownership (as opposed to the usual 7%) is going to do a lot to raise total team ownership from the 95% total that we’re accustomed to.
On every winning lineup that we look at for large field GPP contests like the Milly Maker, we can see instances where the player ate some chalk like 27% Godwin, 22% Cowboys DST, and yet got leverage elsewhere like with 7.49% Gabe Davis.
Top Leverage Plays
Josh Allen at 12%
It’s not that Josh Allen was rostered by a small percentage of the field, but he was leverage compared to Brady being 22% owned and scoring 17 less points than Josh Allen. Taysom Hill was the only ‘Quarterback’ close to Allen and he was rostered by .06% of the field so he would’ve been the ultimate leverage play if any of the 1300 or so lineups that rostered him scored high enough to compete for first.
Breece Hall at 9.61%
The third highest scoring RB on the slate was an incredible value and leverage play as he was under 10%, $5400 salary, and leverage off of chalkier plays like Cook, Chubb, Wilson, and Stevenson.
Gabriel Davis at 7.49%
With McKenzie out, Gabriel Davis was a smash play, and he was direct leverage off of his teammate Stefon Diggs. He really was leverage off of everybody but especially players like Olave and Godwin who had over 20% ownership and scored 15, and 12 points, respectively.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Lineup | Pricing | FPTS Per $ |
| Josh Allen | $8,200 | 4.77X |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | 5.20X |
| Alvin Kamara | $6,600 | 4.15X |
| Gabriel Davis | $6,400 | 5.48X |
| Chris Godwin | $5,900 | 2.08X |
| Tyler Lockett | $5,600 | 5.42X |
| Cade Otton | $2,500 | 4.12X |
| Breece Hall | $5,400 | 5.68X |
| Cowboys DST | $2,500 | 9.2X |
| Total | $50,000 | 4.88X |
There were 2 pay down options in this lineup that allowed this Milly Maker winner to afford the rest of the studs in the lineup. Cowboys DST and Cade Otton were textbook value plays in good matchups, and they allowed a lot of salary relief for flexibility when constructing the rest of the lineup.
Speaking of Cade Otton, DFS Army was all over him in the Coaches Notes. Add in cheap Breece Hall who was one of the top Fantasy Points Per Dollar projections at DFS Army’s Domination Station, and Josh Allen’s $8200 salary was affordable. Fournette, Kamara, and Davis averaged $6600 a piece which is a lot to pair with Josh Allen’s salary but doable because of the rest of the value in the lineup.
Note: We still have no Running Back or Wide Receiver in the 8-9K range in 2022 winning lineups and we rarely saw it in 2021. If you’ve been paying attention, your odds are way better of winning the Milly Maker if you build your lineups with no Wide Receivers or Running Backs priced over $8,000.
If extreme value hits the slate, you can probably disregard this trend, but it will hold true far more times than not.
That 250 Point Ceiling
With only one down week of scoring in the Milly Maker, we now have a 5-game average winning score of 248.54. In fact, if you take out the one low score of 210, we have a 4-week average of 257. What does that mean? Well scoring is back up in the Milly Maker compared to what it was last year when the average was 233 points. The 27.7-point player average needed to hit that 250-point target is as strong as ever and when building lineups, finding a player combination that can potentially hit 250 points isn’t talked about enough in DFS circles.
You can look at leverage, pricing, stacking, etc. but is 250 points in the range of outcomes for your lineup? We’ve seen huge games from Allen, Kamara, Fournette, Davis, Godwin, and Lockett, so not only was 250 points in the range of outcomes for this lineup, but this lineup could also score a lot higher if the stars align.
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