Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/28:
Oct 26, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Cha -2.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier in this one which opens up a ton of usage and playing time in that backcourt. We saw Kelly Oubre Jr. and Dennis Smith Jr. enter the starting lineup over their last couple of games and would expect more of the same in this one. Oubre had a 25.6% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court last season and the big thing with him is generally getting the minutes, so he’ll look great again here. The same can be said for Smith Jr., he may not be a great NBA player but when he gets the playing time, he’s awesome for DFS and has at least 37 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Gordon Hayward had a nice bounceback game against the Knicks and gets a good matchup in this one as well. Then PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee look like fine secondary GPP options to round out the team. From the Magic, they’re going to be without Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs in this one, and with Markelle Fultz out as well, I would think we get RJ Hampton moved into the starting lineup. He’s not a greatly productive guy, but the minutes will definitely help in a great matchup putting him n play as a value option. Paolo Banchero has a 34% usage rate and 1.41 fantasy points per minute in a small sample (60 minutes) with Suggs and Anthony off of the court this season and will look like a nice option in this one. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. both have looked good to start the season and make a lot of sense in their price ranges as well… the rest of this team would be dart throws at best in what should be a slower game against the Cavs.
5-star play: Paolo Banchero
4-star play: Kelly Oubre Jr., Dennis Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, James Bouknight, RJ Hampton, Terrence Ross
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -6.0
We saw this game last time these two were on the court, so we should have at least a little bit of a sample size in this one. Starting with the Hawks, Dejounte Murray and Trae Young have both looked great to start the season. They both have at least 50 DraftKings points in two of their four games on the season and are going to continue to play massive minutes, they’ll both look like solid options again in this one. John Collins has been sneaky good as well with at least 35 DraftKings points in all four games as well. His price tag is starting to climb, but still a guy I have some interest in. Clint Capela, on the other hand, not so much. He’s looked better over his last two games, however, and would be a guy I would be okay with if I landed on him as a filler piece. Then I would have no issue with De’Andre Hunter to round out the team, as he continues to see 30+ minutes per game. From the Pistons, I mentioned last time out how we were still waiting on that breakout game from Cade Cunningham… well, we got it last time out in this matchup. I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in all formats. He’s leading the team with a 29.7 % usage rate on the season and we saw Jaden Ivey get banged up last time out. Jaden Ivey comes in as questionable in this one so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go and looks like a solid option yet again. Saddiq Bey has shown why he’s a tournament guy over the last few games with a decrease in production. Yet again, I’ll leave him for GPPs, he’s just too risky to trust in cash games. I’ll continue to get to this frontcourt with Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, however. Mostly Stewart though, he has looked great this season and is locked into minutes with Marvin Bagley out to start the season.
5-star play: Dejounte Murray, Trae Young
4-star play: John Collins, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 230
Vegas Spread: Was -5.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton continues to put up consistent numbers on the season. He’s averaging 43.8 FanDuel points per game and gets a great matchup with the Wizards in this one. He’ll look like a solid option in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The rookie Bennedict Mathurin has looked like their second-best producer but has had some shooting struggles over his last two games going just 1-10 from three-point range and 9-27 from the field, I would expect that turns around sooner rather than later. Myles Turner returned last time out to play 24 minutes, I would think that’s his floor in this one but should start to push closer to 30 minutes. I will likely wait for him to be a full go before I go to him especially on a big slate, however. Jalen Smith, Terry Taylor, and Isaiah Jackson were guys that benefited with Turner out, but Taylor and Jackson are guys I think we can come off of with Turner back. Smith has been the most consistent and would be my preferred option and is still playable even with Turner back, we’ve seen him produce with him in the rotation. Then Buddy Hield will be a fine secondary option in tournaments, he has at least 35 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. From Washington, Bradley Beal hasn’t been what we’re used to seeing from Beal this season. He saw just 22 minutes last game in a blowout of the Pistons, but I don’t think that will be the norm as he left the game with a brief injury. He’s a guy that we should see 35+ minutes from on most nights. That said, he has just 1.05 fantasy points per minute and would be more of a secondary option for me. The thing that is helping him is an elite matchup with this Pacers’ defense. I was all over Kristaps Porzingis last time out and he did fine, but nothing too crazy. I wouldn’t have an issue going back to him in GPPs in this one. Kyle Kuzma might be their best fantasy producer right now which may sound weird, but he has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of their first four and is a solid option yet again here. Will Barton was able to benefit from Beal’s back injury last time out but he also played well on his way to his best game of the season. His price shot up a good amount, I don’t see myself getting to him on a big slate. Then guys like Monte Morris and Deni Avdija are secondary tournament options at best in a good matchup.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Myles Turner, Jalen Smith, Buddy Hield, Monte Morris, Will Barton, Deni Avdija
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.5
Starting with the Cavaliers, they’ll continue to be without Darius Garland which means we can go right back to the well with Donovan Mitchell. He came down to Earth last time out after having at least 50 DraftKings points in all three of his first games as a Cavalier. He has a 33.7% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute with Garland off of the court. Caris LeVert will benefit as well, as we saw him become a nice per-minute producer without Garland last season, although we haven’t quite seen it this season, but the minutes are certainly there. Evan Mobley has started the season off slow and is probably a guy who I’ll wait for to shake the rust off before going back to him again. That said, he did have his best game of the season last time out, the rebounding is down for him right now and it may be due to Allen being back in that rotation. I do like the matchup against this Celtics frontcourt, however. Speaking of Jarrett Allen, he has at least 42 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a solid option again in this one. Then we can round the team out with Kevin Love as a secondary tournament option, his minutes are very volatile and won’t get over 25 on most nights. From the Celtics, the price tag on Jayson Tatum feels too low here with at least 45 DraftKings points in each game on the season. The matchup is tough which may be baked into that price tag, I still think he’s a great option in all formats. Jaylen Brown continues to look great as well but will likely be more of a GPP option for me due to his scoring dependency at times. I’ll never have an issue with Marcus Smart in his current price range, we know the minutes will be there for him and he picks up peripherals along with looking to score. Al Horford has continued to look slow and old… which he is, this is a tough matchup with Allen and Mobley down low as well, I’ll likely stay away but the minutes should be more secure with Grant Williams out for this game. Then we can round this team out with Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White as dart-throw GPP options. White will likely see more minutes, but Brogdon is more efficient in DFS production when he’s in there.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Caris LeVert, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Al Horford, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 213
Vegas Spread: Tor -1.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid got his minutes back with 38 last time out but his rebounding has been way down over his last two games. That said, I have no problem going back to him as a spend-up option in all formats. James Harden has looked like vintage Harden to start the season, he has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.44 fantasy points per minute on the season. That said, I like his price more on DraftKings where he’s $500 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. Then guys like Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are solid secondary options depending on where you land to round out your roster. They both have nice ceilings at their price tags, I just don’t love the matchup, the Raptors are going to play slow all season long. From Toronto, Pascal Siakam was a guy I came off of a little bit last time out due to the matchup with Embiid down low, but he kept on cooking and now has at least 48 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’s $700 cheaper on DraftKings and looks like a great play over there, he’d be more of a secondary option at $9.6k on FanDuel. Fred VanVleet has shown his volatility early this season, he’s very scoring-dependent which makes him hard to trust at this price tag, but he looked good again in this matchup last time out. Scottie Barnes came into the last game as questionable but ended up playing and looked great, I have no issue going back to him or guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr., they’re all solid secondary options to round out this team.
5-star play: James Harden (DraftKings)
4-star play: Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Fred VanVleet
Deeper Value: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Gary Trent Jr.
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Min -8.5
Starting with the Lakers, it sounds like Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis will come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding them. I don’t think it’s a hot take to think Westbrook has played his last game as a Laker, but that’s just reckless speculation on my end. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out and Davis is IN for the sake of this article. Below is how this team operated with Westbrook off of the court last season:
- LeBron James – 35.8% usage rate; 1.56 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 26.8% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
These are really the only guys that had any sort of sample size with the team last season, but both look like great options in this one. Austin Reaves started in Westbrook’s place last time out, but he’s not a big usage guy, so not a guy I’m all that interested in here. I would expect the group of Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker, and Kendrick Nunn to do the majority of the heavy lifting in the backcourt with him out. All three looked solid last time out, but I can’t say I love the price tags on them. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert price tag has come down over the last few games but it’s been warranted with his production. He’s a fine secondary option in all formats. Karl-Anthony Towns followed up his “breakout” game with another solid game last time out and this Lakers defense is not good, so I have no issue going right back to him in this one. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have both shown some nice ceiling games to start the season and I wouldn’t have an issue with either of them in a great matchup here. Revenge game for Russell as well! Then Jaden McDaniels has played good minutes to start the season, but I don’t think we need to get cute with him on a big slate.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards
Deeper Value: Austin Reaves
GPP Sleeper: Kendrick Nunn, Jaden McDaniels
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -7.0
Starting with the Knicks, Jalen Brunson had a massive game last time out in a game that turned into a shootout with the Hornets. I don’t really want to chase him here, but I wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to go back to him in a pace-up matchup with the Bucks. Julius Randle has been all over the place to start the season and averaged just 35 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Bucks last season. Isaiah Hartenstein has played under 20 minutes in back-to-back games, I don’t see a need to get to him at this price tag. I don’t mind a flyer in one or two MME lineups, however, due to the ability of Giannis to get opposing bigs in foul trouble, maybe he picks up a few more minutes. RJ Barrett was finally able to crack the 30 fantasy point mark last time out, but the production just hasn’t been enough for me to want to prioritize him on a big slate. Then Mitchell Robinson is a fine tournament option as well, he’s coming off his best game of the season and they’ll need his size against this big Bucks frontcourt. Speaking of the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has gotten better in each game this season… are we in for an 80-point game from him here? Probably not, but he’s still one of the top raw options on the slate. They’ll continue to be without Khris Middleton as well, below is how this team operated with him off of the court last season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.8% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 28.6% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
Jevon Carter continues to start for this team but just doesn’t do enough while he’s out there, I don’t see a need to get to him here. Jrue Holiday will look good again in this spot even after a down game last time out, it’s hard for him to have a ceiling game when Giannis is doing literally everything like he did last game. Brook Lopez has come storming out of the gate to start the season and should continue to play around 30 minutes against a weak frontcourt. Then guys like Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen make for solid secondary options as well.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -4.5
Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine comes into this one as questionable, so be sure to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go for the sake of this article. He looked great last time out and is a guy I like going right back to the well with against the Spurs who I love targeting opposing guards. LaVine being back will hurt the production and usage of guys like DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic who we’ve seen some production decline from as well. Vucevic isn’t as impacted as he’s still going to hang around the rim and get those “big man” stats. That said, if LaVine were to miss, both of these guys would see a very nice boost. After those three it gets pretty thin, I guess you can make a case for guys like Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmo, but I don’t think we need to get that cute on this slate. Maybe Dosumno who now has at least 33 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. From the Spurs, Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo will continue to be out for this one. We saw Josh Richardson enter the starting lineup last time out and would expect more of the same here. His price tag came up, but for good reason after a good game filling in for these two last time. He’s a solid option even at an elevated price tag. Keldon Johnson has a 30.7% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with Vassell off of the court this season and will look like an elite option yet again in this one. Tre Jones is another guy I have no issue going right back to the well with here. He’s been great to start the season with at least 28 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Then we did see the minutes for Jeremy Sochan come up last time out as well, he’s an interesting dart throw on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
5-star play: Keldon Johnson
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmo, Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: Jeremy Sochan, Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Alex Caruso
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 229
Vegas Spread: Den -8.0
Starting with the Jazz, I went right back to the Lauri Markkanen well after he burned us all on the 24th, but he bounced back nicely and would be a guy I go back to in this one. The price tag is coming up but it’s warranted with the minutes and role he’s playing on this team. Jordan Clarkson has looked great as of late and has a 23.9% usage rate with 1.11 fantasy points per minute on the season. Collin Sexton continues to come off the bench and comes into this one as questionable, we’re avoiding him regardless in this one. Kelly Olynyk was another guy I went right back to the well with last time out, he shot pretty terribly going just 1-8 from the field, but they’ll need his size against Jokic down low. Jarred Vanderbilt came back down to Earth last time out but still has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four and is a solid tournament option. Mike Conley will always be a secondary type of guy for me and is someone I’ll have no issue with if you land on him, but not a priority by any means. Then, the minutes for Walker Kessler have come crashing down over his last couple of games… he’s an interesting late slate option, however, due to the size they’ll need down low and the potential foul trouble Jokic gets these starters into. From the Nuggets, Jamal Murray has been around the 28-minute mark in his first four games, I’ll want to see him push for 30+ minutes before I get back to him at this price tag. Michael Porter Jr. comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll want to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in this one and looks like a solid mid-range option in a great matchup. Bruce Brown filled in for him nicely last time out and would benefit if he were to miss again in this one. He’s looked good to start the season shooting 50% from three-point range. Nikola Jokic is always an elite play in any format, he bounced back in a big way last time out and now has at least 66 DraftKings points in two of his last three.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Mike Conley, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -6.5
Starting with the Pelicans, we’re really going to need some updates on this team before we can really break them down as CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado all come in as questionable while Brandon Ingram is out. I’ll leave this one for our VIP members in the Breaking News Feed, be sure to watch it as we get closer to lock! From the Suns, Devin Booker continues to look great and has a 29.8% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute on the season, I have no issue going right back to the well with him here. Deandre Ayton was a guy I had a bunch of last time they were on the slate and is a guy I’ll go right back to here as well. Chris Paul has picked his production up a good amount since a dud in the opener, I love the price tag on him here. Then guys like Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges are solid options if you land on them to fill out your roster.
5-star play: Pelicans TBD, Devin Booker
4-star play: Pelicans TBD, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul
Deeper Value: Pelicans TBD
GPP Sleeper: Pelicans TBD, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Por -5.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Rockets, they’ll continue to be without Bruno Fernando, but Alperen Sengun should be back in this one. We may see him enter the starting lineup, but it’s pretty clear they like him coming off of the bench. I don’t think they want to go back to Usman Garuba as a starter, so keep an eye on this one, I think there’s a chance Sengun starts and would be a great option in all formats. Whoever starts at the five is going to be a guy I have an interest in… and if Garuba comes off the bench I think we can safely fade him. Tari Eason has looked good when he gets the opportunity but isn’t getting enough minutes for me to want to get to him with any crazy type of exposure. Jabari Smith had a rough game last time out but the minutes will still be there and the matchup is great, he’s a nice option in all formats. Then Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will continue to run this backcourt and are both guys I’ll go right back to the well with them here. Both guys have a 27%+ usage rate and over 1.20 fantasy points per minute on the season. From the Blazers, they’ll be without Damian Lillard for the next couple of weeks, below is how this team operated with him off of the court last season:
- Anfernee Simons – 28.9% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Jusuf Nurkic – 27.1% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Josh Hart – 24.4% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
All three of these guys will look like great options in all formats and we get rookie Shaedon Sharpe in the starting lineup in Lillard’s place which would be very interesting. If that’s the case, Sharpe will look like one of the better value options on the slate and a guy I would have a ton of interest in. Then Jerami Grant should see all the minutes he can handle again in this one and looks like a nice mid-range option in a great matchup.
5-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Anfernee Simons
4-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Shaedon Sharpe
Deeper Value: Shaedon Sharpe
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Eric Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate, Shaedon Sharpe
NBA Lock of the Day: Anfernee Simons (DK – $7.1k; FD – $7.4k)
I just touched on it, but Damian Lillard will be out for the next couple of weeks for the Blazers which will open up a bunch of usage in that Blazers’ backcourt. We saw Simons thrive without Lillard last season with a 28.9% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. He should play all the minutes he can handle in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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