Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/27:
Oct 25, 2022; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Luguentz Dort (5) reacts after a call against him during the first half against the LA Clippers at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -2.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Mavericks, Tim Hardaway Jr. comes into this one as questionable again, but I’ll continue to operate under the assumption that he’s out until he is off of the injury report. Luka Doncic had a massive game last time out and now has at least 64 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. This Nets defense has been awful to start the season, so he’ll look like an elite play to start the slate off. Christian Wood is going to be volatile, but he actually saw 29 minutes last time out which is a season-high. The price tag is just too hard for me to get to despite his production already this season. Spencer Dinwiddie had a big game last time out taking on that Hardaway role a bit, if Hardaway returns I think we can safely get off of Dinwiddie in this one. Although we do have a revenge game in store! Then guys like Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith are fine secondary options. From the Nets, Ben Simmons was someone I thought would struggle with fouls against Giannis last night, but he really didn’t guard him that much so it didn’t impact his minutes. He put up an average fantasy outing and really needs those double-double/triple-double bonuses to get you there with the little amount of scoring that he does. Kyrie Irving has at least 41 DraftKings points in three straight and will be in play on a short slate. Kevin Durant has been their most consistent option with at least 45 DraftKings points in each game on the season and is right up there with Doncic as a top raw option but does give you a discount on Luka if you can’t quite get to him. You can make a case for Royce O’Neale here as well, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle and has produced nicely.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: Reggie Bullock
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 217
Vegas Spread: Lac -7.0
Starting with the Clippers, they’ll be without Kawhi Leonard here, but I’ll operate under the assumption that Paul George returns from being out with an illness on Tuesday’s slate. With Kawhi and Marcus Morris off the court, last season George had a 35.4% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute and looks great in a nice matchup in this one. Norman Powell was chalk on that Tuesday slate and man did he disappoint, he actually hasn’t scored over 15 fantasy points on the season yet. I’ll leave him as a GPP option until he proves some production to me… that said, a lot of the public may have the same thinking as me coming off of a dud, so there could be some leverage there. Ivica Zubac has looked great on occasion to start the season with at least 45 DraftKings points in two of his first four games and I would have no issue going back to him in this one. Reggie Jackson and John Wall are splitting the backcourt right now, but Wall has been the more efficient producer. From the Thunder, Josh Giddey will remain out in this one, below is how this team operated with him off of the court last season:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 34.4% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- Lu Dort – 23.7% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Tre Mann – 22.3% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Aaron Wiggins – 16.4% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
I think Gilgeous-Alexander will look great again here after dropping 63 DraftKings points last time out against this Clippers team. He becomes extremely ball dominant with Giddey out and is probably too cheap with the increase he’ll see in this one. This frontcourt is a bit of a mess with the trio of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Mike Muscala, and Aleksej Pokusevski… making them all dart throws at best, I do think we can make a case for Robinson-Earl as a secondary option if you land on him at that price tag.
5-star play: Paul George, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Lu Dort, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Deeper Value: Aaron Wiggins
GPP Sleeper: Reggie Jackson, John Wall, Tre Mann, Mike Muscala, Aleksej Pokusevski
Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -7.0
Starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo has looked better as of late with at least 32 FanDuel points in three of his last four games but I do like this matchup for him. He dropped 40 FanDuel points on the Warriors in their lone matchup last season. Jimmy Butler has been fine to start the season but nothing too crazy from a production standpoint, I think we can find better options in his price range… although he’s kind of in no-man’s land on FanDuel where the price is a bit better. That said, on DraftKings I would just find the money to get up to a guy like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and do some roster reconstruction. Guys like Tyler Herro and Max Strus continue to look great and are playing good minutes, I have no issue going back to them in a pace-up spot with the Warriors. Kyle Lowry has produced better as of late with at least 28 FanDuel points in three of his last four. From the Warriors, Steph Curry continues to look great, he has a team-high 31.8% usage rate and 1.56 fantasy points per minute on the season. Andrew Wiggins has been surprisingly consistent as well to start the season, I wouldn’t have any issue with him at this price tag but the matchup isn’t the best with Miami. The same can be said for Draymond Green as well, however, the minutes for Klay Thompson have been all over the place and he hasn’t exactly shot the ball well to start the season. He would be more of a tournament option for me in this one. Then I think we can always make a case for Kevon Looney as a value option on a short slate.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler (FanDuel), Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: James Wiseman, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler (DraftKings)
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -3.5
We’ll round out the slate with the biggest implied total by a good amount at 236. Starting with Memphis, we saw Dillon Brooks return last game which will hurt the usage of guys like Ja Morant, but he was still able to drop 63 DraftKings points on the Nets and now has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. I have no issue going back to him in a fast-paced game against a bad defense here. I was all over Desmond Bane on their last slate and kept him in there when Brooks was ruled active, and thank goodness I did, as he finally found his shot and dropped 57 DraftKings points. I don’t expect him to shoot 8-11 from three-point range again, however, so he’s more of a secondary option, but the price tag is still fair on him. Speaking of Brooks, he played just 24 minutes in his season debut, I would expect that to be the floor for him here, and probably isn’t a guy I want to get to until he’s a full go. Steven Adams has been solid to start the season and Santi Aldama is right there with him in the frontcourt and will both look like good options in this matchup. I do think Brandon Clarke is a sneaky GPP option in a fast-paced matchup at a cheap price tag. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has been great to start the season with at least 49 DraftKings points in three straight games and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this matchup. He also leads the team with a 33.6% usage rate and 1.52 fantasy points per minute. Domantas Sabonis has looked better over his last two games after dealing with foul trouble in the opener and is a guy I have no issue getting to here. Keegan Murray moved into the starting lineup last time out and will play a massive amount of minutes again here. Then the trio of Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, and Malik Monk are more tournament options than anything to round out the slate.
5-star play: Ja Morant, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Steven Adams, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: Brandon Clarke
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk
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NBA Lock of the Day: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DK – $9.3k; FD – $10.3k)
I will say, I like the price tag a lot more on DraftKings where he’s $1k cheaper, but I think he’s in play on both sites due to the size of the slate. He’s coming off of a massive game last time out against this same Clippers team. He sees a big increase in production with Josh Giddey off of the court with a 34.4% usage rate and 1.40 fantasy points per minute and will be one of the better raw options on the slate. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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