Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/26:
Oct 24, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Utah Jazz guard Malik Beasley (5) dunks on Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) in the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -8.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Magic, it sounds like Jalen Suggs is going to miss some time with an ankle sprain which will help the usage and production of this backcourt. Cole Anthony had a 26.5% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Suggs off of the court last season and looks like a solid option again in this one but can be a little volatile. Paolo Banchero will likely benefit from Suggs being out as well just from a usage standpoint. He’s cooled off a bit since starting the season off extremely hot. He may be slightly overpriced considering the matchup against this frontcourt, but if you land on him I wouldn’t talk you off of him. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. both have looked good to start the season and make a lot of sense in their price ranges as well… the rest of this team would be dart throws at best in what should be a slower game against the Cavs. From the Cavs, they’ll continue to be without Darius Garland which means we can go right back to the well with Donovan Mitchell. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games and in a short sample this season, he has a 36.9% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute with Garland off of the court. Caris LeVert will benefit as well, as we saw him become a nice per-minute producer without Garland last season. Evan Mobley has started the season off slow and is probably a guy who I’ll wait for to shake the rust off before going back to again. Jarrett Allen finally had a breakout game last time out against the Wizards and looks like a solid option here, but the opportunity cost at center is always massive. Then we can round the team out with Kevin Love as a secondary tournament option, his minutes are very volatile and won’t get over 25 on most nights.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Evan Mobley, Kevin Love, Terrence Ross
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -7.0
Starting with the Hawks, Dejounte Murray and Trae Young have both looked great to start the season. They both have at least 50 DraftKings points in two of their three games on the season and are going to continue to play massive minutes, they’ll both look like solid options again in this one. John Collins has been sneaky good as well with at least 35 DraftKings points in all three games as well. His price tag is starting to climb, but still a guy I have some interest in. Clint Capela, on the other hand, not so much. He bounced back nicely last time out in just 23 minutes but has been very volatile to start the season. He would be more of a secondary tournament option, I will say, the price tag is falling into a nice range, however. Then I would have no issue with De’Andre Hunter to round out the team, as he continues to see 30+ minutes per game. From the Pistons, we’re still waiting on that big ceiling game from Cade Cunningham who has been held under 40 FanDuel points in each game. It’s not for a lack of usage either, he’s at a 27.5% usage rate on the season, he just needs to start picking up those ancillary stats with more consistency. Jaden Ivey has been awesome to start the season, but struggled last time out, along with the rest of the team. I wouldn’t have an issue if you wanted to go back to him in this one at this price tag. Saddiq Bey did what Saddiq Bey does last night and threw a dud up there on a four-game slate. He’s a very volatile option, but the ceiling is certainly there, so more of a tournament option. I’ll continue to get to this frontcourt with Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren, however. Mostly Stewart though, he has looked great and is locked into minutes with Marvin Bagley out to start the season.
5-star play: Dejounte Murray, Trae Young
4-star play: John Collins, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -3.5
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons was a guy I’ve talked myself into over the last couple of slates. His price tag has come down as well… he’s just massively struggling with foul trouble which is killing his minutes. I like going back to him here, but if he gets the Giannis assignment he may run into the same issue, so a tournament option for me due to the risk. Kyrie Irving had a big game last time out and will look solid again here, I don’t love the price tag but he’s not afraid to shoot. Kevin Durant would be my preferred option on the team if you can find the money to get up from Irving to him. Durant led the team last season with a 31.5% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute. He also averaged 55.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Bucks last season. You can make a case for Royce O’Neale here as well, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle and has produced nicely. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo continued to look good in a great matchup last time out against the Rockets. He averaged 61.5 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Nets last season and will look like an elite option again in this one. They’ll continue to be without Khris Middleton as well, below is how this team operated with him off of the court last season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.8% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 28.6% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
Jevon Carter continues to start for this team and actually saw 25 minutes last time out… the issue is he’s not very productive while he’s out there which makes him tough to play even at this price tag. Jrue Holiday will look good again in this spot, I have no faith in this Brooklyn defense so a lot of this team is going to continue to look. Brook Lopez has come storming out of the gate to start the season and should continue to play around 30 minutes against a weak frontcourt. Then guys like Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen make for solid secondary options as well.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving, Royce O’Neale, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Jevon Carter
GPP Sleeper: Ben Simmons, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen
Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -8.0
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier in this one which opens up a ton of usage and playing time in that backcourt. We saw Kelly Oubre Jr. and Dennis Smith Jr. enter the starting lineup for these two last time out and I would think we get more of the same in this one. Oubre had a 25.6% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court last season and the big thing with him is generally getting the minutes, so he’ll look great again here. The same can be said for Smith Jr., he may not be a great NBA player but when he gets the playing time, he’s awesome for DFS and gets a revenge game in this one! Gordon Hayward has been fairly volatile this season, but I don’t have an issue with him again here. Then PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee look like fine secondary GPP options to round out the team. From the Knicks, Jalen Brunson has looked good to start his Knicks career, he hasn’t done anything crazy but he’s doing kind of what we expected with being a good floor general and offense leader. I don’t necessarily love the price tag from a DFS perspective, but if you land on him I would have no issue with that in a good matchup. Julius Randle bounced back nicely last time out and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. The Hornets have not been good defensively and he should be able to do whatever he wants in the interior. Isaiah Hartenstein is going to be tough to play when this frontcourt is healthy simply due to the minutes he sees. We’ve seen his minutes come down in back to back games and isn’t a guy I’ll get to here even considering his upside, he’s too expensive. RJ Barrett hasn’t been able to crack the 30 fantasy point mark yet this season, I’ll wait until I see it from him before I go too crazy on rostering him. Then Mitchell Robinson is a fine tournament dart if you land on him to round out the Knicks.
5-star play: Kelly Oubre, Dennis Smith, Julius Randle
4-star play: Gordon Hayward, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: James Bouknight
GPP Sleeper: James Bouknight, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -1.0
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid only played 28 minutes last time out due to early foul trouble which kind of killed his ceiling. That being said, I have no issue going back to him in this spot. It’ll be a slow-paced game which I generally prefer to target big men in. James Harden has looked like vintage Harden to start the season, he has at least 56 DraftKings points in three of their four games and will look good again at this price tag. That said, I like him MUCH more on DraftKings than on FanDuel where he’s $10.8k. Then guys like Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are solid secondary options depending on where you land to round out your roster. They both have nice ceilings at their price tags, I just don’t love the matchup, the Raptors are going to play slow all season long. Speaking of the Raptors, the price has come up a bit on Pascal Siakam, but it’s still not enough. The nice thing with the Raptors is we know the starters are going to push 40 minutes with Nick Nurse as the coach, so Siakam is going to look like a great option again if he can hang with Embiid down low… which I know is a big if. Fred VanVleet has shown his volatility early this season, he’s very scoring dependent which makes him hard to trust at this price tag. That being said there could be more shots and usage to go around if Scottie Barnes ends up missing this one again. He comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are solid secondary options to round out this team.
5-star play: James Harden (DraftKings)
4-star play: Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby
Deeper Value: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr.
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Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -7.5
Starting with the Pacers, I’ve been all over Tyrese Haliburton all season and he’s continued to produce nicely. We’re used to seeing him closer to the $9k range on DraftKings. I’m going to continue to target him until his price gets to where it should be. The rookie Bennedict Mathurin has looked like their second-best producer but had a down game last time out. I do like his price tag slightly more on FanDuel, but he’ll look like a solid option in all formats. Myles Turner comes into this one as questionable after missing their first handful of games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on his status. For the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again in this one. Jalen Smith, Terry Taylor, and Isaiah Jackson will continue to see minutes with him being out, but all have been pretty volatile. Smith has been the most consistent and would be my preferred option but there is a handful of risk with all of these guys as it seems like Carlisle is in tank mode… pretty hard. Then Buddy Hield will be a fine secondary option in tournaments, but not a guy I’m forcing in. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine is back in the lineup and taking up some of that usage and production we saw from the rest of the team to start the season. He’s been somewhat volatile to start the season but the price tag is pretty nice in a great matchup against the Pacers here. The Pacers may have the worst defense in the league with Turner out of the rotation. LaVine being back will hurt the production and usage of guys like DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic who we’ve seen some production decline from as well. Vucevic isn’t as impacted as he’s still going to hang around the rim and get those “big man” stats, he’s coming off of a 50 burger last time out and looks good again here. After those three it gets pretty thin, I guess you can make a case for guys like Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmo, but I don’t think we need to get that cute on this slate. Dosunumo had a nice game last time out but I don’t expect him to shoot 9-10 from the field every slate.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Terry Taylor, Isaiah Jackson, Buddy Hield, Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmo
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Min -9.0
Starting with the Spurs, it sounds like they’ll be without Devin Vassell in this one who has been one of their best producers early on this season. With him out I would expect more minutes for guys like Jeremy Sochan, Josh Richardson, and Joshua Primo. It’s a really small sample size, about 40 minutes, but Keldon Johnson has a 31.6% usage rate and 1.42 fantasy points per minute with Vassell off of the court this season. He’s going to look like an elite option in all formats. The price tag on Jakob Poeltl continues to be too low, but this is a tough matchup against Gobert down low which makes him more of a secondary option for me. Tre Jones should see a bit of usage/production increase as well with Vassell out, he has at least 31 FanDuel points in two of his last three and looks good yet again. Jeremy Sochan was a guy I liked to start the season but the minutes have been very volatile, that said, with Vassell out, I would expect those minutes to become more secure and makes sense in GPPs. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert has looked great to start the season for the Wolves, but his price feels like it’s right where it should be. He struggled in this matchup last time out as well, so he’s more of a secondary option than anything for me. Karl-Anthony Towns finally had a bounce-back game last time out and is a guy I have no issue going back to. The only issue is the rebound equity he loses with Gobert out there. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards both look great here, and we saw Russell dominate this Spurs backcourt last time out. I love attacking the Spurs with guards and this spot will be no different. Then Jaden McDaniels has played good minutes to start the season, but I don’t think we need to get cute with him on a big slate.
5-star play: Keldon Johnson, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Jakob Poeltl, Tre Mann, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: Jeremy Sochan, Joshua Primo, Josh Richardson
GPP Sleeper: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeremy Sochan, Joshua Primo, Josh Richardson
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -5.5
Starting with the Rockets, they’ll continue to be without Bruno Fernando and Alperen Sengun, while Jae’Sean Tate comes in as questionable. in this one. This frontcourt is a bit of a mess, Usman Garuba got the start for Fernando in the first game he missed, but then they went with Jabari Smith at the five in their last game while Garuba saw just 11 minutes. Whoever starts at the five is going to be a guy I have an interest in… and if Garuba comes off the bench I think we can safely fade him. Even with Fernando and Sengun out we’re not seeing more than 20 minutes for Tari Eason as well, so he’s more of a dart throw, especially at an uncomfortable price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I would have no issue going back to him as a value option should he start again in this one. Jabari Smith looked great running the five last time out, so I would expect more of the same here, he’ll look like a great option. Then Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green will continue to run this backcourt and are both guys I’ll go right back to the well with them here. Both guys have a 27%+ usage rate and over 1.20 fantasy points per minute on the season. From the Jazz, this team is running a very deep rotation right now but has had some nice stories to start the season. Lauri Markkanen burned us all last time out as chalk, but I have no issue going right back to him in this one… he just couldn’t get his shot to fall last time out going 0-6 from three and 7-19 from the field. Jordan Clarkson has been fine to start the season and will continue to see good run as a starter for the first time in a while. Collin Sexton continues to come off the bench and is playing around 20 minutes per game, until that comes up or the price tag comes down, I’ll likely avoid him. Kelly Olynyk was another chalky player last time this team was on the slate and for whatever reason saw just 27 minutes, I wouldn’t have a problem going back to him in this one. Jarred Vanderbilt has been sneaky good as well, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games and looks solid at his price tag. Mike Conley will always be a secondary type guy for me and is someone I’ll have no issue with if you land on him, but not a priority by any means. Then, Walker Kessler saw just eight minutes last time out, I think we can safely fade him on a large slate.
5-star play: Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr.
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: Usman Garuba (if starting)
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Collin Sexton
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Den -6.0
Starting with the Lakers, it sounds like Russell Westbrook is going to miss this game which may actually be for the better for the Lakers. Below is how this team operated with Westbrook off of the court last season:
- LeBron James – 35.8% usage rate; 1.56 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 26.8% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
These are really the only guys that had any sort of sample size with the team last season, but both look like great options in this one. I would expect the group of Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker, and Kendrick Nunn to do the majority of the heavy lifting in the backcourt with him out. All three will look like good options at their respective price tags. from the Nuggets, Jamal Murray has been around the 28 minute mark in his first three games, I’ll want to see him push for 30+ minutes before I get back to him at this price tag. Michael Porter Jr. comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll want to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in this one and looks like a solid mid-range option in a great matchup. He’s looked good to start the season shooting 50% from three-point range. Nikola Jokic is always an elite play in any format, he’s coming off of a down game last time out but was due to early foul trouble, he’s one of the best raw options on the slate.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: Kendrick Nunn, Austin Reaves
GPP Sleeper: Kendrick Nunn, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Miami Heat @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Por -1.0
We’ll round out the slate starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo bounced back after a bad performance against Toronto in game 1. I think the price tag has finally caught up to him, maybe slightly too cheap yet, but I have no issue going back to him in a nice matchup. Jimmy Butler has been fine to start the season but nothing too crazy from a production standpoint, I think we can find better options in his price range on a big slate. Guys like Tyler Herro and Max Strus were solid as well and but I like Herro more now that he is starting, he’s looked awesome to start the season. Kyle Lowry has looked really bad at points over their first few games. That being said, he’s going to play around 35 minutes and will be in play at his price tag. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard now has at least 52 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a guy I’ll have no issue going right back to in this one. Jusuf Nurkic has been a bit volatile this season and I don’t love the matchup with Bam down low making him more of a secondary GPP option in this one. I ended up with a good amount of Anfernee Simons last time out and he was on fire going 7-12 from three-point range. I wouldn’t expect that kind of shooting again here but he’s still a great option playing more than 36 minutes in each game this season. Then Jerami Grant and Josh Hart will continue to play big minutes as well and make for good secondary options at their respective price tags.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Jusuf Nurkic
NBA Lock of the Day: Keldon Johnson (DK – $6.8k; FD – $7.2k)
I’m going right back to the well with Keldon Johnson, especially now that Devin Vassell is out for the Spurs as well. Johnson has looked great to start the season and in a small sample with Vassell off of the court, he has a 31.6% usage rate and 1.42 fantasy points per minute on the season. As I said, a small sample (about 40 minutes), but with Dejounte Murray out of town there isn’t much competition for usage, so he’ll look great again in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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