Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/23:
Feb 28, 2022; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) and Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5) react to an officials following a play during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt_18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -3.5
This game kicks off early, so it’ll likely be a showdown or only if you play the All-Day slate. Starting with the Blazers, it looks like they’re going to be playing a pretty tight rotation to start the year, as each of their starters saw at least 35 minutes in their last game (it did go to OT) but your premier plays here are obviously going to start with Damian Lillard, he is on a mission this year and he has a great matchup here against this Lakers defense. Josh Hart and Anfernee Simons are both very solid plays as well, Simons especially looks like he took another great step forward. Jusuf Nurkic also is a solid play here but gets a tougher matchup going up against AD down low. Lastly, my favorite is Jerami Grant as he fills a huge void this team was missing last year as they got barely any production from their 4, his price hasn’t caught up to his role on either site yet. If you’re looking to dive, Justise Winslow saw the most minutes off the bench with 24 last game but he is a GPP dart throw at best on a showdown game. Now for the Lakers, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are your obvious top dogs on this team, both will garner interest on any slate they are playing with the upside they have. After those two it gets murky, as the Lakers are starting Russell Westbrook so far and with him on the court at the same time as those two hurts his upside but his price reflects it on both sites. Patrick Beverley is also starting but the production is always gonna be volatile with him. Lonnie Walker has a nice role carved out so far, he’s starting and played 37 minutes last game, he’s gonna be volatile though but has really nice upside in GPPs if we see him get hot like he did last game. Lastly, if you’re looking to get deep, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Austin Reaves are seeing the most minutes of anyone off the bench but both are deep GPP dart throws.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: Lonnie Walker, JTA, Justise Winslow
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Atl -10.5
Starting with the Hornets, it sounds like Terry Rozier will be out this game, which opens up Dennis Smith Jr. as one of the premier value plays on the slate. I also really like Gordon Hayward here as he’ll have the ball in his hands a lot more as well with Rozier likely out. Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington are both solid mid-range plays as well with LaMelo out. The Hornets are running a 9 man rotation right now, so Nick Richards and Jalen McDaniels are also very solid value plays as each saw 25+ off the bench last game. Lastly, with Rozier out you can make a case that James Bouknight will see additional minutes at the backup PG role but he is very volatile but he’s cheap. Now for the Hawks, they run a very tight rotation as well, the two big dogs of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have shown they can co-exist and still put up big fantasy numbers and this is a great matchup for both of them tonight. De’Andre Hunter also saw 33 minutes last game, he’s a solid value piece as he really is just flat out solid at that 3 spot for them. John Collins and Clint Capela both saw 30+ minutes last game as well, but Capela hasn’t looked great through 2 games so far, but this is a get right spot as CHA has been getting torched by bigs early on this year. I’d avoid the Hawks bench guys, as they’re not going to see more than 20 minutes each and none of them are high FPM producers.
5-star play: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray
4-star play: Dennis Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: Jalen McDaniels, Nick Richards, James Bouknight
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -4.5
Now we get to the Main Slate! Starting with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma has actually looked great to start the year, he put up B2B 20+ point performances against a tough Bulls squad and had a great game in their opener as well. Bradley Beal has had B2B lackluster games as well, I really like him to bounce back in this matchup today as I know a 30+ actual point performance is not far off. Kristaps Porzingis has also been solid, but I never love him unless we know he’s gonna get 30+ minutes and they don’t need to push him with their depth. Deni Avdija has been solid as well and is a good FPM producer so far for value. Monte Morris has also settled in well at the PG spot, but he’s splitting minutes with Delon Wright and Will Barton, neither of those two are in play for me today though. If you’re looking to get deep, Rui Hachimura is their 6th man right now and seeing 20+ off the bench and has been a solid FPM guy in his career. Now for the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has looked phenomenal so far, and Darius Garland suffered an eye injury in the opener so expect him to see even more usage with that first team, Garland may be back here tonight so keep an eye on news though. Cedi Osman took on the bulk of Garland’s minutes and is a solid value option here today if Garland were to miss again. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are a formidable frontcourt, and they get a much more favorable matchup here today against this WAS frontcourt that doesn’t play much defense. Other deeper options here for this Cavs team are Dean Wade and Kevin Love, both saw 20+ off the bench but on a bigger slate there should be some better value open up, Love went nuts the other night and will be a GPP winner at some points during the season but the production will be spotty for sure. Caris LeVert will also see his role expand if Garland were to miss, as he had a big game the other night when he was out as well.
5-star play: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Dean Wade, Kevin Love
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Monte Morris
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 230
Vegas Spread: Nop -7.5
The Jazz have been the surprise of the season so far, going 2-0 beating the Nuggets and the T-Wolves to start the year. They’re going to run a pretty tight rotation as of now as 4 of their 5 starters played 35+ minutes last game. Kelly Olynyk and Lauri Markkanen have both come out on fire, both are still underpriced on both sites and this should be another fast paced game with loads of fantasy production. Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson are both starting and seeing big minutes, I love Clarkson in GPPs here as this is a game environment that plays right into his style of play. Malik Beasley and Collin Sexton are both also seeing solid minutes off the bench, but I’d expect Sexton to be back starting shortly so keep an eye on that. If you’re looking to get really deep, Walker Kessler has carved out a solid role off the bench and is a high FPM producer, if Olynyk or Markkanen get into foul trouble here he could see 20+ minutes off the bench and be a possible slate breaker. Now for the Pelicans, they have looked AMAZING so far this year and will be a problem this year for sure. Zion Williamson came back to earth after a great performance in their opener, but that is mostly because Jonas Valanciunas was a beast going for 30 and 17 (called that by the way) as he plays better when the pace is slowed down. We have a fast paced game here so I think you can go right back to Zion. You’re going to want to stick with the Pelicans starters here, as their bench has 6 guys that play 15 minutes or less so I’ll be avoiding that guessing game on a medium sized slate. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum work very well together in that backcourt, both are solid plays at their prices today and Herbert Jones is a decent value piece I like more on FanDuel where blocks and steals are worth 3 FPs as he is their best defensive player by far.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, Kelly Olynyk
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value: Malik Beasley, Walker Kessler, Herbert Jones
GPP Sleeper: Walker Kessler
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Min -7.5
Starting with the Timberwolves, this is another situation where you’re going to want to stick with their starters, as they play 5-6 guys off the bench 15 minutes or less so there isn’t much fantasy production coming there. This is a great matchup for the Wolves, as Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert should both dominate this OKC frontcourt and Gobert could grab another 20 rebounds here. This really does hurts KAT’s fantasy upside though as he won’t be rebounding as much this year. Anthony Edwards is the definition of a GPP play, as he has insane upside when he gets hot but he can disappear at times but the minutes are there and he did take 23 shots last game so the usage is there as well. Jaden McDaniels is a decent value guy, but he’s their #5 option on offense but he did play 39 minutes last game so the opportunity for a ceiling night is there. Lastly, D’Angelo Russell is running the point here and has been very solid, not a guy I’m going out of my way to play tonight though. If you really want to get frisky, Jaylen Nowell did score 18 actual points in 20 minutes last game, but we’re not going to be able to rely on that kind of production night in and night out. Now for the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like he took another leap towards super stardom so far this year, putting up another great game last night and with the pace of this game I don’t see that changing much at all. Josh Giddey looked great as well, I love his price on FanDuel and he is another guy that is going to be a stud for years to come, his price will be going up shortly so this is another solid spot to get him. Lu Dort also saw 30+ here and started, but he is a dart throw with both of those guys healthy but he has shown crazy upside at times in his career. Aleksej Pokusevski also saw 20+ minutes in the opener, but is quickly losing minutes to Darius Bazley who has been super productive off the bench, wouldn’t be surprised to see those two flip roles shortly. If you’re looking to dig deep, Tre Mann is seeing big minutes off the bench and has been super productive, he’s pretty cheap on both sites still.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: KAT, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Darius Bazley, Aleksej Pokusevski, Tre Mann, Jaden McDaniels
GPP Sleeper: Darius Bazley, Tre Mann
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Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -9.5
Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox looked like a man on a mission in their first two games this year, and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup. Kevin Huerter has been very good as well and came up huge in a near comeback down the stretch last night, love him for value again tonight. Domantas Sabonis jumped right back into being super productive like I thought, and gets another solid matchup here against this GS frontcourt. Keegan Murray also made his debut last night and looked really good, he’s going to be a stud for this Kings squad for years to come and I see him starting in the near future. Harrison Barnes is still hanging on as well but with Murray good to go his production will take a hit Outside of those guys, the Kings rotation gets pretty muddy, as Terrence Davis, Davion Mitchell, and Malik Monk all saw solid minutes off the bench, it’ll be a dart throw as to which of those guys will have a good game moving forward, but there will be nights one of these guys can take down a GPP, but with Murray back it does hurt Davis the most. Now for the Warriors, the most obvious play here is going to be Steph Curry as this is a pace up game as the Kings will push the ball but this plays heavily into his favor, he has one of the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate tonight. This is a favorable matchup for Jordan Poole as well, as he should see 30+ minutes coming off the bench. The emergence of Poole has really hurt both Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson as both won’t make my player pool here tonight. If you’re looking to get deeper, Kevon Looney will be playing solid minutes here to matchup with Sabonis, and Draymond Green is always in play for GPPs as he has triple double upside, I like him more on FanDuel for sure though, outside of that I’m not really touching anyone on this Warriors team though.
5-star play: Steph Curry, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter
Deeper Value: Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk, Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Jordan Poole
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -2
Here we have the hammer game, which I don’t love as it has one of the lowest totals on the slate but there could be some solid fantasy production in this one. Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker is gonna be the main target here, as the Clippers have struggled against guards to start the year, this also puts Chris Paul into play as well, but I don’t love his price on either site. Deandre Ayton has emerged as the #3 option on offense, and he should have a field day going up against Zubac here tonight. Mikal Bridges is also going to play heavy minutes here, and he can have a ceiling game from time to time, but they’ll be putting him on PG13 a lot here. Cam Johnson also continues to start and has been super productive, but I’d like to see him get closer to 30 minutes before I go back to him. If you’re looking for a value piece, Damion Lee has emerged as their 6th man, as he was the hero in their opener and played 31 minutes off the bench last game, love him for value tonight. Now for the Clippers, I’d expect Kawhi Leonard and John Wall both back tonight, I will be fading Kawhi as he isn’t going to play full minutes but Wall makes for an interesting tournament play on the 2nd half of a B2B where Jackson was limited last night. Paul George smashed like I thought he would last night, going for 62 FPs in the hammer game, you can go right back to him tonight even with those guys back. Ivica Zubac only saw 24 minutes last game, but I expect that was due to the pace of the game, look for him to go back to 30+ tonight as this game suits him much better, could have another big game here as well like he did in the opener. Reggie Jackson was limited last night but with Wall back it really hurts him here. Lastly, Marcus Morris and Norman Powell are also in play here, I’ll go right back to Powell after his dud last night as he couldn’t even make a layup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, Paul George, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: John Wall, Norman Powell, Damion Lee
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Damion Lee
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video for this week’s NFL slate as well as you prepare for week 7!
NBA Lock of the Day: Kelly Olynyk (DK – $5.2k; FD – $4.7k)
Jelly-O has been super efficient and has carved out a big role on this Utah team so far. He got off to a hot start in the opener before getting into foul trouble and then put up 40 FPs last game, if he can repeat that its 8-9x value here and I think he gets you 6x value easily given the pace of this game playing really well into his skillset. Love him here tonight. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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