Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/22:
Apr 9, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George (13) runs down court after a three point basket against the Sacramento Kings in the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt_18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 218
Vegas Spread: Bos -7.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Celtics who are on a back-to-back after playing in Miami last night. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both looked incredible to start the season. They both have at least 45 DraftKings points in each game to start the season. This Orlando defense isn’t nearly as good as Miami who they saw last night, both guys are firmly in play again in this one. I talked about how Malcolm Brogdon came down to Earth last night while Derrick White had the big game. I think this is going to be one of those rotations where one guy is going to have a nice night on a daily basis, so I would do my best not to pair them in a lineup moving forward. Al Horford has not looked good in either game but got his minutes up to 34 last night which is the main piece I’m concerned about… especially on a back-to-back. He’s a guy they’re not going to push after a long postseason run and with hopes of doing it again this season. I would be leary of him playing big minutes again in this one, the price tag did come up a little bit but he’s still too cheap. UPDATE: Horford is out tonight, so that puts Noah Vonleh in line to start and see some solid minutes. The same can be said for Marcus Smart who will look like a good option again in this one. From the Magic, Cole Anthony returned last night after being a late add to the injury report in the opener. He looked fine relative to his price tag and would be a guy I want to go back to here, even in a tough matchup. He led the team last season with a 25.2% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute. Paolo Banchero picked up right where he left off in the opener and now has at least 46 DraftKings poitns in his first two NBA games. His price tag will continue to look good again here. I have no issue going right back to him in this spot, he’s in for a big year. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. both feel like secondary options, especially in a tough matchup with this Celtics defense.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Paolo Banchero
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
Deeper Value: Noah Vonleh
GPP Sleeper: Noah Vonleh, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Det -1.0
Starting with the Pistons, I’ve been all over Cade Cunningham on each slate to start the season and we haven’t seen him blow his price tag out of the water before it begins to increase… because it will increase. I do still think there is some meat on the bone with him here, he’s more of a higher $8k player, at least from what we saw from him last season. This is also an elite matchup against one of the worst teams and defenses in the league. Bojan Bogdanovic played just 26 minutes last night but will have no issue taking his shots, but he can be shooting-dependent which makes him more of a GPP option, I do like the price tag, however. Then we get to these two rookies in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, they both have looked great to start the season… and I have no issue going back to them here in a nice matchup. Duren is probably more of a GPP guy due to the minutes, but he certainly passed the eye test and the block upside is there with him as well. Saddiq Bey bounced back nicely last night and is always a guy you can get to in GPPs, but he has some volatility to him. From the Pacers, much like a lot of people, I was all over Tyrese Haliburton on the first two slates. DraftKings just messed up his price tag to start the season, it’s come up here but he’s still about $1k too cheap and is a guy I’ll go right back to the well with. The rookie Bennedict Mathurin looked like the real deal in his first two games with at least 33 FanDuel points in both games. He’s a nice option again here, but I do prefer the price tag on FanDuel. Jalen Smith was a core play for me last night and ended up getting pulled after seven minutes due to being hit in the face last night. Assuming he’s back in there tonight I have no issue going right back to him with Myles Turner continuing to be out. Then Buddy Hield will be a fine secondary option in tournaments, but not a guy I’m forcing in.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin (FanDuel)
4-star play: Cade Cunningham, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, Terry Taylor, Bennedict Mathurin (DraftKings), Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: Terry Taylor
GPP Sleeper: Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren, Terry Taylor, Chris Duarte
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -13.0
Starting with the Rockets, they’ve decided they’re going to start Bruno Fernando over Alperen Sengun for whatever reason. That being said, Fernando saw just 12 minutes last night and Sengun saw 27 while Tari Eason was mixed in there with 20 minutes as well. With Fernando’s price tag coming up, I’m not sure I want to go back to him, Sengun is the guy you want in this frontcourt. Kevin Porter Jr. looked solid again last night, but Jalen Green had the big night with 45 DraftKings points. I think one of them is going to have the big night on a nightly basis and it may be difficult to predict which one it will be. With Christian Wood off of the team, it’s opening up a bunch of usage for these guys and will look good again here, below is how these two operated with Wood off of the court last season:
- Kevin Porter Jr – 25.4% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Jalen Green – 25.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
Then rookie Jabari Smith came down to Earth last night but is a guy that they want to get some run and has seen at least 33 minutes in both games this season. I love his price tag on FanDuel yet again here. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo picked up right where he left off last season and had a huge game to open things up against the Sixers. He’s going to look like one of the better raw options on the slate. They’ll be without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton again here and for the next few weeks. Below is how the Bucks operated with them off of the court last season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.8% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 28.6% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
It was a little surprising to see Jevon Carter get the start for them last time out, he was a guy I was begging them to go to in the postseason over George Hill. He only ended up playing 22 minutes, but if he starts again here he is in play as a tournament value option. This is a great matchup against a weak Rockets defense, so the Bucks are going to look great as a whole.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Alperen Sengun, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis
Deeper Value: Jevon Carter, Jae’Sean Tate
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Bruno Fernando, Tari Eason
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.0
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell looked good in his Cavs debut, and Darius Garland suffered an eye injury in the opener so expect him to see even more usage with that first team. Cedi Osman took on the bulk of Garland’s minutes and is a solid value option here today. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are a formidable frontcourt, but they run into tougher matchups here going up against Vuc and Patrick Williams in the Bulls frontcourt. Other deeper options here for this Cavs team are Dean Wade and Kevin Love, both saw 20+ off the bench but on a bigger slate there should be some better value open up. Now for the Bulls, their rotation seems pretty set right now, but Zach LaVine will be back tonight which will throw a wrench in things. It definitely bumps down both DeMar Derozan and Ayo Dosunmu, especially Dosunmu as LaVine will have the ball in his hands a ton. The Bulls are playing a tight rotation of 10 guys, so Goran Dragic, Andre Drummond, and Coby White are all seeing big minutes off the bench are a viable for value here as well. Lastly, Nikola Vucevic is a solid option as Allen gives up a lot of fantasy points to opposing centers throughout his career, but I won’t be touching Patrick Williams tonight as his minutes are only in the mid-20s and he is a low usage guy in this offense.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: DeMar Derozan, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, Kevin Love, Goran Dragic, Andre Drummond, Coby White
GPP Sleeper: Andre Drummond, Cedi Osman
Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -3
Starting with the Raptors, the price has come up a bit on Pascal Siakam, but it’s still not enough. The nice thing with the Raptors is we know the starters are going to push 40 minutes with Nick Nurse as the coach, so Siakam is going to look like a great option yet again here against the Heat, but he has a much tougher matchup here going up against Bam and this Heat frontcourt. Fred VanVleet looked much better in the second game, expect him to get going again as he has the better matchup of the two. Then the trio of OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. are all in a similar price range and will play similar minutes. It’s tough trying to predict who of the three will have the big night but as I mentioned, the minutes will be there for them but this is a tougher matchup compared to last night. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo bounced back after a bad performance in their opener, he is still too cheap on DraftKings for sure. Jimmy Butler was the best player on the team in the opener which comes as no surprise and will look solid again here, he gets a better matchup than he had against the C’s and the price hasn’t moved much on either site. Guys like Tyler Herro and Max Strus were solid as well and but I like Herro more now that he is starting. I will say, Kyle Lowry has looked really bad the first two games, and until he starts producing consistently I will be off of him.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: Max Strus, OG Anunoby, Tyler Herro
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr.
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -6
Starting with the Grizzlies, it sounds like Dillon Brooks is going to miss this game again along with Jaren Jackson who will be out for a good portion of the season. We saw Santi Aldama and John Konchar start the first two games each of this season and with Desmond Bane back they started last night as well, both are great value options here tonight. Here’s how the Grizzlies’ usage shakes out with Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson out:
- Ja Morant – 37.1% usage rate; 1.47 fantasy points per minute
- Desmond Bane – 28.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
- Brandon Clarke – 18.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
We saw Ja go nuclear last game and could do so again here even on the second half of a B2B.
Now for the Mavericks, this is clearly Luka Doncic’s team, as he balled out in their first game and gets a good matchup against Ja and Bane here, he’ll be able to get whatever he wants. Outside of Luka, I’m not really going to be targeting too many people other than Christian Wood as he had a big game in their opener coming off the bench, and that usage for him will be elite with that 2nd unit. His price has come up a bit on both sites though. Spencer Dinwiddie also did end up starting, even though they said he would be coming off the bench, I actually prefer him coming off the bench as it prevents him from losing touches to Luka, much prefer him if he doesn’t start tonight but that’s really all I want to target from this Mavericks team.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, John Konchar, Christian Wood
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama, John Konchar, Brandon Clarke
GPP Sleeper: John Konchar
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Den -8.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like he took another leap towards super stardom in their opener, putting up just under 60 FPs, he is gonna be a bit volatile with his play style but he is for sure in play here tonight. Josh Giddey looked great as well, I love his price on FanDuel and he is another guy that is going to be a stud for years to come. Lu Dort also saw 30+ here and started, but he is a dart throw with both of those guys healthy. Aleksej Pokusevski also saw 20+ minutes here, and he’s a solid option starting at the 4/5. If you’re looking to dig deep, Tre Mann is the only guy who saw 20+ off the bench, but he’s not really someone I’m targeting here tonight. Now for the Nuggets, it was great to see Jamal Murray back in the opener, but he is already dealing with a hamstring issue that we will have to keep an eye on. Michael Porter Jr. is back as well and he played 30+ minutes in each of their first two games. He has legit 50-point upside when he’s out there if he can get hot from the field. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. If he plays, I probably won’t have much interest in him, but if he can’t go there will be more usage spread around and more minutes for guys like Ish Smith and Bones Hyland, especially Bones. Nikola Jokic is always an elite play in any format, especially given that this OKC team doesn’t have anyone that can contain him downlow.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Josh Giddey, Aleksej Pokusevski, Bones Hyland, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Deeper Value: Bones Hyland
GPP Sleeper: Bones Hyland, Michael Porter Jr.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 225
Vegas Spread: Lac -3
Starting with the Clippers, it looks like Kawhi Leonard will be out here tonight, which automatically puts Paul George into elite level territory especially at his price on FanDuel. Ivica Zubac also had a monster game, and it looks like the Clippers will finally let him get the minutes that he needs to produce, if he sees 30+ again he’s a great option at C tonight. John Wall will also be out here, which opens up more minutes for Reggie Jackson as he’ll start at PG and should see north of 30 minutes. Terance Mann will also be viable here, but I’d prefer him coming off the bench instead of starting in Kawhi’s place. Lastly, Marcus Morris and Norman Powell should also see increased roles with Kawhi and Wall out, I actually like Powell a lot here. Now for the Kings, De’Aaron Fox looked like a man on a mission in their opener, as did Kevin Huerter as both played heavy minutes and had great games. Domantas Sabonis was a bit disappointing but gets a get right matchup here as Zubac gets abused by other bigs. Outside of those main 3, the Kings rotation gets pretty muddy, as Terrence Davis, Davion Mitchell, and Malik Monk all saw solid minutes off the bench, it’ll be a dart throw as to which of those guys will have a good game moving forward. That’s about all I want from this Kings team in terms of fantasy.
5-star play: Paul George, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Domantas Sabonis, Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson
Deeper Value: Terrence Davis, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Malik Monk
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video for this week’s NFL slate as well as you prepare for week 7!
NBA Lock of the Day: Paul George (DK – $9.3k; FD – $9.0k)
We’ve already gotten word that Kawhi Leonard will not suit up today, and they’ll be resting John Wall as well. Outside of those two guys Paul George is too underpriced for the role he’ll have in this game, and you get a pace up game against the Kings that play fast and loose which can lead to more steals and fast break opportunities. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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