Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/21:
Oct 19, 2022; Brooklyn, New York, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) reacts during the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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New Orleans Pelicans @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -6.5
We’ll kick off this Friday slate with the Pelicans who looked great in the opener against the Nets. Zion Williamson looked great in 30 minutes of action, which is actually more than I thought we’d see him for. That being said, I would think we see something similar in terms of playing time, I have no issue going right back to him here in a great matchup against a bad Hornets team. Both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum looked solid in that game as well and didn’t seem to be impacted too much by Zion soaking up some usage and production as well. We know McCollum was good last year as well with a 29.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute and will look like a solid secondary option. I don’t think we can expect all three of these guys to produce like this every night, but they do look good again here. Jonas Valanciunas had a nice opener as well and we’re going to be able to target this Hornets frontcourt all year with opposing bigs. Speaking of the Hornets, they’ll still be without LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges here, but they were able to dominate the Spurs in their opener. Terry Rozier led the team with fantasy points which is no surprise, he had a 25.5% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Ball off of the court last season. The surprise to me was Dennis Smith Jr. playing 28 minutes who will look like a fine tournament option here although I don’t love the price tag. I did think Kelly Oubre was sneaky and he ended up being fine in just 23 minutes. It’s going to be tough to love a lot of this team when they’re going eight men deep who are all seeing 21+ minutes. We can round out the team with PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward who should continue to see good minutes here and are guys I like going right back to in this one.
5-star play: Zion Williamson, Terry Rozier
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Smith Jr., Kelly Oubre
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -3.0
This game should be a good one if you’re interested in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, as both of these teams are hoping to have a good shot at him. We’ll start with the Spurs who were blown out by the Hornets in game 1. Parts of this team did see some decent price increases like Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell who were both pretty chalky last time out. There is going to be a lot of usage to go around on this team with Dejounte Murray off of the team. Below is how they operated without him last season:
- Keldon Johnson – 23.1% usage rate; 0.96 fantasy points per minute
- Tre Jones – 15.6% usage rate; 0.99 fantasy points per minute
- Devin Vassell – 21.2% usage rate; 0.99 fantasy points per minute
Johnson and Jones looked great and will be guys I go right back to here, and I have no issue going back to Vassell as well. They’ll need his minutes and he just had a bad night shooting going 0-8 from three and 3-15 from the floor. I did have some interest in Jeremy Sochan, especially on FanDuel where he wasn’t all that bad in 27 minutes. They’ll need his minutes this season and is a solid secondary option again here, although I don’t like that he got a price increase. Then we can round the team out with Jakob Poeltl who will continue to look like a solid center option, he’s still too cheap here. From the Pacers, much like a lot of people, I was all over Tyrese Haliburton last time out and his price hasn’t come up enough for me not to like him again in this one. We’re used to seeing him closer to the $9k range on DraftKings. I’m going to continue to target point guards against this Spurs team again this season. The rookie Bennedict Mathurin looked like the real deal in 28 minutes as well, he’s going to be an excellent play, especially on FanDuel where he’s just $4.3k… he’s an elite play over there. Myles Turner was ruled out in pregame warm-ups after rolling his ankle on the ball boy’s foot and he’ll continue to be out here. I ended up getting a good amount of Jalen Smith with him out and he’ll be a guy I go right back to in this spot here… although I wish he saw more than 22 minutes. Then Buddy Hield will be a fine secondary option in tournaments, but not a guy I’m forcing in.
5-star play: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin (FanDuel)
4-star play: Devin Vassell, Jakob Poeltl, Bennedict Mathurin (DraftKings), Jalen Smith, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: Terry Taylor
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Chris Duarte
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Was -1.5
Starting with the Bulls, they’re going to be without Zach LaVine again in this one as he continues to nurse a knee injury. Below is how this team operates without him on the court:
- DeMar DeRozan – 37.8% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 28.4% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
- Ayo Dosunmu – 15.6% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Coby White – 22% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
DeRozan was the one with the massive game in the opener with 65.7 FanDuel points. I have no issue going right back to him in a great matchup with Washington in this one. Both Vucevic and Dosunmu looked great as well and are guys I like going back to due to the minutes they’re going to see along with the increase in production with LaVine out. Alex Caruso and Coby White should see some extra run and shots with LaVine out but would be more tournament options than anything. From the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma sure proved me wrong in the opener having a huge game. I figured with Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal back he would fall to being that third option on the team, but he looked great. I still don’t know if I trust him enough at this price tag, however. Both Beal and Kristaps looked fine in the opener, nothing too crazy, but would be guys I have no issue going back to in this one. Last night was the first time we saw them on the court together, so there may be some growing pains, but ultimately I think it works out and the Wizards will be sneaky this season. Outside of those three, I guess you could take a look at Will Barton or Daniel Gafford for tournaments, but I don’t think we need to get there on a big slate.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Ayo Dosunmu, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: Coby White
GPP Sleeper: Coby White, Alex Caruso, Will Barton, Kyle Kuzma
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -8.5
Starting with the Magic, Cole Anthony was slapped with a late questionable tag on Wednesday and comes into this one as questionable as well, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s back from his illness tonight. It was the Paolo Banchero show in the opener and this kid looks like the real deal falling one rebound away from a 27-point double-double. I have no issue going right back to him in this spot, he’s in for a big year. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. both looked solid, nothing too crazy but they looked good and will look like solid secondary options again here. If Anthony ends up sitting, we can go back to Jalen Suggs who had a 26.9% usage rate and 1.00 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court last season, but if he’s back in the lineup I’ll be lower on Suggs. From the Hawks, this Dejounte Murray/Trae Young backcourt is going to be a ton of fun this season. They both dropped 50-burgers on the Rockets in the opener and are guys I have no issue going right back to in this one. John Collins and De’Andre Hunter both saw 32+ minutes as well and the production showed it, they both look like strong options again in a nice matchup with this Magic defense. Clint Capela had a down game and will likely be more of a tournament option than anything, we saw this type of volatility from him last season.
5-star play: Paolo Banchero, Dejounte Murray, Trae Young
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Suggs, Clint Capela
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -2.5
Starting with the Raptors, the price has come up a bit on Pascal Siakam, but it’s still not enough. The nice thing with the Raptors is we know the starters are going to push 40 minutes with Nick Nurse as the coach, so Siakam is going to look like a great option yet again here against the Nets who I think we can target big men with again this season. Fred VanVleet had a down game to open the season, but he’ll have these games every now and then… he just didn’t take a whole lot of shots going just 4-9 from the field, look for him to bounce back in this one. Then the trio of OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. are all in a similar price range and will play similar minutes. It’s tough trying to predict who of the three will have the big night but as I mentioned, the minutes will be there for them in a good matchup. From the Nets, WOOF. They got walloped by the Pelicans in the opener and Ben Simmons may belong on a milk carton at this point. I’m going to safely fade Simmons until he shows us he’s still competent at playing basketball because that performance was not pretty. Yes, he only played 23 minutes due to fouling out… but maybe try not to foul out in 23 minutes? Kyrie Irving looked like a mess as well shooting 0-6 from three-point range and 6-19 from the field. Kevin Durant and Royce O’Neale were the only guys that looked solid and are both good options to go back to in this one. Durant led the team last season with a 31.5% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: Royce O’Neale, Day’Ron Sharpe
GPP Sleeper: Ben Simmons
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Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both looked incredible in the opener against the Sixers. They both dropped 35 real points and will look good again in this one, although I don’t love the matchup against this Miami defense, I won’t talk you off of either of them, especially in what should be a competitive game. I talked about how Malcolm Brogdon would impact Derrick White more than anyone on this team… and guess what, that’s exactly what happened. I don’t know if they want to keep him coming off of the bench and running that second unit, then closing with the starters or if he’ll be inserted into the starting lineup at some point, but he’s a great option again here. Al Horford had a rough game due to some quick fouls that were picked up against Embiid which caused him to play just 23 minutes. The price tag did come up a little bit but he’s still too cheap, the same can be said for Marcus Smart who will look like a good option again in this one. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo was mega chalk on Wednesday night, but for good reason at that price tag. His price did come up a bit but for a guy that had a 25.4% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute last season, he’s still too cheap. Jimmy Butler was the best player on the team in the opener which comes as no surprise and will look solid again here even in a tough matchup. Guys like Tyler Herro and Max Strus were solid as well and both saw 31+minutes, they’ll look like solid secondary options to round out this team. I will say, Kyle Lowry did NOT look good and he still saw 35 minutes… I’m not sure if he’s just kind of washed at this point or he’s rusty, but until he proves it to me, I’ll be off of the Lowry train.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Max Strus
Deeper Value: Max Strus (FanDuel)
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Kyle Lowry
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Nyk -7.0
Starting with the Pistons, I was all over Cade Cunningham on Wednesday and it was starting to get scary after the first quarter where he had something like 2 DraftKings points… but he ended up having a solid night so we’re not black-listing him after the first game of the season! His price tag did come up a bit but still looks like a nice option in this one in his price range. Bojan Bogdanovic actually led the team in fantasy points and is going to get plenty of scoring opportunities on this team and looks good again here. Then we get to these two rookies in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, they both looked awesome and are guys we can go right back to the well with at their price tags. Duren is probably more of a GPP guy due to the minutes, but he certainly passed the eye test and the block upside is there with him as well. I did have a good amount of Saddiq Bey on FanDuel due to the price tag and will look good again in this one, but more of a tournament guy. From the Knicks, the Jalen Brunson debut when pretty well with 36.5 DraftKings points and is a solid option again in this matchup. Julius Randle certainly welcomed Brunson and looked great in this one, I will say, some of these numbers are helped by going into overtime, but Randle still looked great and actually fouled out after 36 minutes in this one. The surprise of the night may have been Cam Reddish and Isaiah Hartenstein seeing massive minutes and both dropped 30+ DraftKings points. I think you could do worse at their respective price tags in this one, but they did get a boost after that game. It’s worth noting Hartenstein was a big benefit from Mitchell Robinson getting into very quick foul trouble which is always sort of the issue with him which makes him more of a tournament option than anything.
5-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic
4-star play: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: Cam Reddish
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Duren, Saddiq Bey, Cam Reddish, Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson
Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, it sounds like Dillon Brooks is going to miss this game again along with Jaren Jackson who will be out a while. We saw Santi Aldama and John Konchar get the start in their places and both performed extremely well and are guys we can go right back to in a great matchup against the Rockets. Below is how this team operated with Jackson and Brooks off of the court last season:
- Ja Morant – 37.1% usage rate; 1.47 fantasy points per minute
- Desmond Bane – 28.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
- Brandon Clarke – 18.1% usage rate; 1.12 fantasy points per minute
Konchar and Aldama were both around the 0.8-0.9 point per minute range which is all you really need at their current price tags, although they both got some healthy price increases after that performance, so probably more secondary options than anything. I do like going right back to the Ja Morant well as well, without Jackson and Brooks there to take away his usage, he’s going to be a guy I want to get a good chunk of. From the Rockets, they decided to start Bruno Fernando over Alperen Sengun for whatever reason, but he had a really nice game in 25 minutes of action. I would assume they send the same starting five out in this one and will look like a solid value option. Kevin Porter Jr. led the team in production and I think it’s going to be a day-to-day battle trying to determine which of Porter Jr. and Jalen Green are going to have the big game… both look good again here at their price tags. Then rookie Jabari Smith looked solid in his debut, the big thing for me being the 33 minutes he played as well as shooting 17 shots, he looks good again here.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, John Konchar, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith, Jalen Green
Deeper Value: Bruno Fernando
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Alperen Sengun
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video for this week’s NFL slate as well as you prepare for week 7!
Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Min -8.5
Starting with the Jazz, they surprisingly beat up on the Nuggets in the opener and will look to continue that here. We saw Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, and Jordan Clarkson all play 30+ minutes in that game and all were pretty good outside of Clarkson who is always a bit more volatile anyway. Collin Sexton will likely continue to come off of the bench and just isn’t getting the minutes to be viable in this price range. Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler will have their hands full with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in this one, that said, they’ll need the size out there so the minutes will be there to give them the opportunity and both look like solid mid-range options. The price tag for Kessler on FanDuel is really nice but he soaks up the center position for your roster. I don’t think there’s really anyone on this team I’m banging down the door to play, but they do have some nice options if you land on any of them. From the Wolves, we get a revenge game right away for Rudy Gobert who was traded over from the Jazz in the offseason. He had a massive debut with the Wolves going for 51.2 FanDuel points and will look like a nice option again here. I’m a bit surprised Jokic wasn’t able to dominate this Jazz frontcourt on Wednesday, but both Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns should have no issue taking advantage here. Towns had a rough shooting game in the opener but I have no problem going back to him here… it’s worth noting he may see a decrease in rebound equity this season with Gobert out there with him. He’s not a massive rebounder in the first place, however, with just 0.29 rebounds per minute last season. D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards both had rough games in the opener as well, but they didn’t really shoot the ball all that well going a combined 11-33 and just 3-13 from three-point range. Jaden McDaniels had a huge game out of nowhere and played 36 minutes, he’ll look like a solid mid-range option as well.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels
Deeper Value: Walker Kessler
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton, D’Angelo Russell
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -5.5
Starting with the Nuggets, it was great to see Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in there again and playing good minutes. I was not expecting to see 35 minutes right out of the gate for Porter Jr. and if he’s going to get that type of run, he’s too cheap on both sites. He has legit 50-point upside when he’s out there if he can get hot from the field. Murray went to the locker room with a hamstring injury and comes into this one as questionable. He probably wouldn’t have seen the type of run that Porter Jr. did in that opener but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. If he plays, I probably won’t have much interest in him, but if he can’t go there will be more usage spread around and more minutes for guys like Ish Smith and Bones Hyland. Nikola Jokic had a 31.8% usage rate and 1.78 fantasy points per minute last year and averaged 65.31 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Warriors last season… he’s an elite option again in this one. From the Warriors, they came out of the gate looking hot, particularly Steph Curry who dropped 61 DraftKings points by hitting just four three-pointers. He’ll look like a nice option again in this one. Behind him, this team feels appropriately priced… maybe there’s some meat on the bone with Draymond Green, but he’s being slowly worked in with just 25 minutes in the opener. Behind Curry, I’m going to call guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, and Klay Thompson tournament options, and guys I have no issue with if you land on them to complete your lineup.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Steph Curry
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson
Deeper Value: Bones Hyland
GPP Sleeper: Bones Hyland, Draymond Green
Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -4.0
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker lead the team last season with a 32.2% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute and had a great opener against the Mavs. I have no issue going right back to him here especially if he’s going to get more time on the court with Chris Paul on the bench as they look to preserve his legs a bit more this season. Paul played just 30 minutes compared to Booker’s 41, so Paul is still in play at 30 minutes but I just don’t love the price tag. DeAndre Ayton was great in the opener in an awesome matchup with that Mavs frontcourt, I have no issue going back to him here. Nurkic is much better than whoever the Mavs could throw at him in the post, but his price tag is nice on both sites. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are fine secondary options, Johnson should see a boost this season with Crowder out. Then we’ll round out the slate with the Blazers who ran a really tight rotation in the opener with only 6 guys seeing 20+ minutes… which is gold for DFS. Damian Lillard looked a bit rusty going just 1-8 from three-point range, but that shot will start to fall sooner rather than later, and is a guy I have no issue going back to here. Jerami Grant and Josh Hart both looked great in big minutes and will be guys I go back to the well with here. Anfernee Simons will be the shooting guard after signing a huge extension, but with Lillard demanding most of the backcourt usage he’s more of a secondary tournament option than anything. Finally, Jusuf Nurkic had a rough game in just 25 minutes of action, I would hope those minutes come up especially against Ayton down low, but he’s a GPP option as well.
5-star play: Devin Booker
4-star play: DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic
NBA Lock of the Day: Bones Hyland (DK – $4.0k; FD – $3.9k)
I’m going to operate under the assumption that Jamaal Murray will miss this game after tweaking that hamstring again in the opener. I would imagine they want to take it really slow with him as he comes back from a nasty injury. That being said, Murray being out would open up a big opportunity for Hyland who passes the eye test in a big way. With Murray off of the court last season he had a 23.8% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. He also doesn’t need to battle with Will Barton and Monte Morris for backcourt usage anymore as well. I love the price tag and think he makes a ton of sense as a value assuming Murray sits in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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