Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/20:
May 7, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts after scorring during the third quarter against the Boston Celtics during game three of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.0
We’ll kick this short slate off with the Bucks as they open up the season on the road in Philly. They’re going to be a bit shorthanded right from the jump with Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton out to start the season. They also won’t have Joe Ingles, but they likely won’t have him until the second half of the season. I would expect we see a starting lineup much as we saw in the playoffs with Grayson Allen continuing to start at the 2… but there are rumors that Bobby Portis is going to slide into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operated with Middleton off of the court last season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.8% usage rate; 1.74 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 28.6% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.8% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.5% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
With Middleton and Connaughton out to start the season, there is going to be a real opportunity for guys like Jordan Nwora and rookie MarJon Beauchamp to get some minutes and form a role in this offense. On a two-game slate, I think Nwora makes some sense as a tournament flyer… but man he’s priced up on DraftKings which makes it hard to get to him. I don’t think Beauchamp will see big minutes right away, but give it a few weeks on him. Giannis is the clear-cut top option from the Bucks and may be on the slate as a whole, but I’ll have no issue with the rest of that starting lineup as well on a short slate. From Philly, they’re looking to rebound from an opening night loss to the Celtics. Joel Embiid looked fine in that game but is a guy who always plays well against the Bucks. He averaged 64.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against them last season and is an elite play again in this one. James Harden was awesome in the opener going for 35 real points and fell 5 rebounds/assists short of a triple-double. He does look slimmer and if he’s got a different attitude this season, he could be in for a big year and is a guy I like again in this spot. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are going to be secondary options on this team, but they’re priced as such. Both look like solid options at their respective price tags. Then PJ Tucker and De’Anthony Melton are fine value options, Tucker is going to play a bunch of minutes and not be very efficient on a per-minute basis whereas Melton will be just the opposite.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Grayson Alle, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: Wesley Matthews, PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Nwora (FD), De’Anthony Melton
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -5.5
We’ll round out the slate with the battle of Los Angeles! Starting with the Clippers, they’re finally going to have a somewhat healthy team with Kawhi Leonard and John Wall ready to go. Kawhi will be thrown right into the starting lineup and I would expect he plays 30+ minutes at a really nice price tag on both sites. We obviously haven’t seen him play meaningful basketball in a while which likely makes him more of a GPP option than anything, but he’s an elite player in this league when he’s healthy. Paul George led the team with a 33.7% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute last season, I would expect this regresses a bit with more usage to share with guys like Kawhi, Wall, and the rest of this lineup, but he’ll still look like a nice play in a great matchup. Reggie Jackson will be the starting point guard with Wall coming off of the bench behind him and is a solid secondary option. I do really like Norman Powell off of the bench as well, he was extremely efficient for them in a small sample last year (125.4 minutes) – he had a 30.4% usage rate and 1.30 fantasy points per minute. I don’t think I want to go to the Wall well right off the bat, I would expect he plays somewhere between 20-25 minutes and has a ton of risk with him tonight. Ivica Zubac is a solid flyer to round out this team as the starting center, they’ll need his size to battle Davis down low. From the Lakers, they had a rough opening night against the Warriors which isn’t going to be anything out of the ordinary until they figure this team out. They can’t continue to start Russell Westbrook if they want to be competitive… but they likely will again here. The price tag on him really isn’t all that bad, so I don’t hate getting to him here in tournaments. LeBron James had the big game in the opener and looks pretty polished coming into this season, he’s a great option as well again in this one. Anthony Davis continues to be too cheap and is a guy I like as well here against a weak Clippers frontcourt. Kendrick Nunn was a popular value option on Tuesday and ended up performing well relative to his salary. His price came up a bit but he’s still in play as a value option considering the minutes he’ll play. Then Lonnie Walker and Patrick Beverley played similar minutes and had similar production, I have no issue with either of them in this one… although, Beverley may have a little fire under him in a revenge game against the Clippers.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Paul George
4-star play: Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Lonnie Walker, Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: Kendrick Nunn, Patrick Beverley, Lonnie Walker
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Morris, Austin Reaves, John Wall
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NBA Lock of the Day: Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK – $10.7k; FD – $11.3k)
I’m not going to get cute on a short slate, I’m going to go with the most projected fantasy points on the slate. With Khris Middleton off of the court, he had a 35.8% usage rate and 1.74 fantasy points per minute. Not to mention he crushes the 76ers as well, averaging 68.58 DraftKings/68.23 FanDuel points per game in three games against the Sixers last season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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