Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/18:

Oct 3, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Davion Mitchell (15) defends Los Angeles Lakers guard Kendrick Nunn (12) as he drives to the basket in the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -3.0
We’ll kick the season off with Philly heading into Boston as three-point underdogs. Some key adds and departures for this team include Montrezl Harrell, De’Anthony Melton, and PJ Tucker who should give them depth at the very least which they really lacked last season. I don’t expect any of these guys to make an impact on what we saw from the starters last season, however. Joel Embiid clearly led the team with usage at 38.2% last season and 1.63 fantasy points per minute. He’s far too cheap on DraftKings under $10k but seems more appropriately priced on FanDuel where he’s $10.7k. Boston struggled with opposing big men last season as well, in four games against them Embiid averaged 56.1 DraftKings points per game and is an elite option in all formats. The big question for this team will be what they’re able to get out of James Harden who had a disappointing stint with the Sixers last year. He had a 24.9% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute which is far lower than what we’re used to seeing from him. That being said, he does seem a lot more motivated just from some recent offseason comments/interviews. He’s definitely in play here due to the size of the slate, but it is a tough matchup against this Boston defense. DraftKings pricing is super soft for the Sixers, guys like Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will look like really strong secondary options as well strictly because of their prices. From the Celtics, Robert Williams will miss the beginning of the season with a knee injury but they did bring in Malcolm Brogdon and Blake Griffin in the offseason to also bring in some much-needed depth. I would imagine we see Brogdon come off of the bench with Marcus Smart and Derrick White running the starting backcourt… but Brogdon may be the more productive guy over White off of the bench. Jayson Tatum led the team last year with a 32.3% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute and will look like a great option in all formats on a short slate. Jaylen Brown is right behind him at a 30.5% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute. We know he’s a bit more volatile, but still a guy I would have an interest in here. Tatum also averaged 45.7 FanDuel points per game against the Sixers in four games last season. I might be lower on Al Horford to begin the season, they’re not going to be able to run him heavy minutes as they did in the playoffs if they want to be able to use him in this season’s playoffs… that said, the price tag is really nice and with Williams on the shelf, they’ll need him to produce. Marcus Smart is another guy who is far too cheap and he’s a guy we likely will see heavy minutes from. I’ll have a bunch of him on this slate to round out the team unless you want to look at value options with Grant Williams and Blake Griffin.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Grant Williams, De’Anthony Melton
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -6.5
We’ll round out the slate with the new-look Lakers? It sounds like Russell Westbrook will be available after injuring his hamstring in their final preseason game, but the more interesting piece is he came off of the bench in that game. I think that’s a glimpse of things to come this season, as it clearly wasn’t working with him in the starting lineup. Dennis Schroder is also day-to-day with a thumb injury so we could be looking at a backcourt led by Patrick Beverley and Kendrick Nunn. Regardless of the starting lineup, these guys will look like nice value options, especially Nunn who is min price on DraftKings and $4.3k on FanDuel. We’ve seen him be a nice per-minute producer in his career and will be a guy I like a good amount. That said, he’ll fight for usage with the big dogs in LeBron James and Anthony Davis who are the leaders of this team. When both Davis and James were on the court last season James had a 30.6% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute while Davis was at a 22.7% usage rate with 1.17 fantasy points per minute. They’ll both look good here especially if usage hog Westbrook comes off the bench. Speaking of Westbrook, I’ll be underweight on him until we figure out what his role on this team is. From the Warriors, they don’t have any major additions but they did get Donte DiVincenzo in free agency who will be a nice piece off of the bench and they should get James Wiseman back as well. I don’t expect either of them to see too many minutes right off the bat, so probably not guys I’ll look to get to here. I think the Warriors are pretty cut and dry, we’re sticking with the guys that got us there last season. Steph Curry led the team with a 30.3% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute and will look like a great option again here. I do like the price tag a good amount on Draymond Green and may come out fired up after his fight with Jordan Poole in practice, he’s a nice secondary option. Then guys like Poole, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins feel like secondary options as well depending on where your lineup falls. I do think the offseason will be good for Thompson to fully get back after we saw some glimpses of greatness from him last year. He had a 28.3% usage rate and 1.02 fantasy points per minute with Curry on the court last season. I would imagine we see Kevon Looney continue to start at the five until Wiseman grows into that role, he’d be more of a secondary value option to round out the slate.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kendrick Nunn (DraftKings), Steph Curry
4-star play: Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn (FanDuel), Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins
Deeper Value: Kendrick Nunn, Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Russell Westbrook (MME only), James Wiseman
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NBA Lock of the Day: Marcus Smart (DK – $5.2k; FD – $5.9k)
This is more of a pricing play than anything given the size of the slate, but I love the security we get with him in the mid-$5k’s range. He’s going to play 30+ minutes and stuffs the stat sheet when he’s out there. I don’t see the addition of Brogdon hurting him as much as it will a guy like Derrick White. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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