Yahoo DFS Strategy for Week 4 | Picks and Tips for Winning Lineups

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Yahoo! Cash Game Players for Week 4

Week 3 was a low-scoring affair across NFL games and DFS was no different whether you played chalky or contrarian lineups. On Full-PPR scoring sites like DraftKings, we saw low 200 scores take down large field GPP’s like the Milly Maker and on Half-PPR sites like Yahoo, we saw a score of 166 total points win contests like the Yahoo Baller which continues to have a lot of overlay.

Whether or not you cashed likely came down to your Quarterback, if you played 1 of Russell Gage or Mack Hollins, and whether or not you played a Defense like the Panthers that scored a Touchdown and had 16 total points. Touchdowns are even more important on Half-PPR sites like Yahoo and is something we’ll continue to evaluate as we make lineup decisions.

Quarterbacks

This week there are really two options that I’m considering on Yahoo and they’re squaring off in the same game.

Josh Allen $40

He already has over 1,000 passing yards on the season and is second only behind Lamar with 9 pass touchdowns. The Ravens are really banged up in the secondary and this is a dream matchup for Allen and the Bills to bounce back with a 52.5 projected game total. DFS Army has Allen as the top projected QB on the slate with 24.6 points.

Lamar Jackson $39

In Half-PPR formats like Yahoo, Lamar’s rushing floor and upside is just too high to ignore. His running threat also sets up deep passes down the field where he’s been surgical and leads the league with 10 Touchdowns. He has back-to-back 40-point games on Yahoo. Partly because the Ravens secondary is a problem, and the offense needs to score a lot of points to win. Next up are the Bills led by Josh Allen who figures to score a lot of points in a 52.5 game total. I like Lamar in Cash this week in a game that could be a shootout.

Running Backs

Running Back has been a disappointment this year as even when we pay for mid-range Running Backs getting a ton of volume in a good matchup, they’ve been a disappointment. I.E. Joe Mixon going against the Jets last week. However, week 4 sets up for some good value at the position.

Saquon Barkley $29

Barkley is still underpriced on Yahoo relative to his usage and effectiveness – averaging 6 yards per carry. He’s averaging 17 carries a game and an 18% target share to go with it. With Sterling Shepherd out for the year with a torn ACL, the offense needs to run through Barkley more than ever and the matchup sets up great for that this week as the Giants face a run Defense that is giving up over 150 yards per game this season.  

Jamaal Williams $23

Jamaal already had 4 touchdowns in a timeshare with Swift and Swift figures to miss the game this week in a great matchup against Seattle. He had 20 carries last week for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns and will undoubtedly be the chalk with Swift out. DFS Army’s 2nd highest projected fantasy points per dollar RB this week on Yahoo at .70, Williams is a lock for me in Cash if he starts the game. 

Khalil Herbert $19

This play is completely contingent on whether Montgomery plays or not. Herbert just looks better than Montgomery as he averaged 7.85 Yards Per Carry last week on 20 carries for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. This brings his average on the season to 7.45 YPC and I’m all in on him as a play in all formats at his $19 Salary. 

Josh Jacobs $15

I don’t love the matchup as the Broncos have a pretty solid run Defense, but I do think Hackett has the familiarity with Davante Adams to know how to defend him and the number one way to do that is putting Patrick Surtain on him who has been a shutdown corner in his 2nd year in the league. The Raiders offense will likely produce elsewhere, and Jacobs is popping at the Domination Station as the top Fantasy Points Per Dollar play at RB. One thing I’ve learned over the years is the Domination Station knows better than I do.

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Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs $34

Cue up the Stud coming off of a Dud narrative. We didn’t like Diggs last week at his price going up against an elite Corner. This week he has the weak Ravens secondary in a get right game for Diggs who has a 28% target share on the season. He’s the top projected WR this week for DFS Army with a projection of 16.07 points and his chances of exceeding that are high vs a defense that is allowing 280 yards per game to wide receivers. If Diggs sits, I’d pivot over to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Michael Pittman $27

Michael Pittman returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off with a 25% target share. In 2 games he’s averaged 96 yards for the Colts. With the volume that Pittman is seeing, the positive touchdown regression will come and there’s no better time for it than against a Titans D that is giving up the most Touchdowns in the league to Wide Receivers.

Richie James Jr. $12

Shepherd is out for the season, Golladay has been a massive disappointment, and Toney wasn’t even active against the Cowboys. Richie James Jr with a 20% target share is in line to get even more targets going forward. He’s the top Fantasy Points Per Dollar Play at DFS Army’s Domination Station with a projection of 9 points. At $12, you’ll take that. 

One thing to note: I have recommended Barkley, Richie James Jr, and potentially Herbert from the New York and Chicago game. In cash games, I typically don’t want to stack players because if the game is low scoring, your cash lineup is toast. Instead, I’d rather spread-out players across several games to avoid having all my eggs in one basket. That’s something to keep in mind when building cash lineups. 

If I’m playing Herbert, I’m probably not playing Barkley in that same lineup, etc. (Especially with Running Backs in the same game unless one sees a lot of targets and we’re on a full PPR site like Draft Kings.

In the instance of say, Lamar and Diggs in the Buffalo/Baltimore game, I’m less worried about it because Lamar gets a lot of points by running the ball and we see a lot more paths to that game being high scoring than we do in the New York and Chicago game that has a game total of only 39 points. 

Marvin Jones Jr. $11

Marvin Jones has a 17% target share on the season and with Darius Slay likely to cover Christian Kirk, there’s a good chance that more targets funnel to Zay Jones and Marvin Jones this week. At only $11 on Yahoo, we’ll gladly take that projected bump in target share which is why Marvin pencils in as the 2nd highest projected Fantasy Points Per Dollar play this week at .74 just behind Richie.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews $28

With back-to-back weeks of 22 points and a 37% target share, you can’t mention the tight ends and not have Andrews’ name on top of the list. He’s the number one tight end in Fantasy Football right now and he’s currently 7th among all pass catchers. I typically punt at tight end but Andrews scores Touchdowns and we need that on Yahoo. If I pay up at Tight End, he’s the clear frontrunner in that projected high-scoring game between Baltimore and Buffalo.

Kyle Pitts $16

With 9.6 projected points and a $16 salary, Pitts is coming up as the top Fantasy Points Per Dollar Play over at DFS Army’s Domination Station. He still hasn’t gotten into the endzone, and we want that on Yahoo’s Half-PPR format so I like Pitts as more of a tournament play than my Cash game Tight End, but he is still cash viable with a 23% target share which is elite for Tight Ends.

David Njoku $14

With an 18% target share on the season and priced near the $10 minimum for Tight Ends, Njoku is probably as low as I’d go at Tight End this week. He got a Touchdown last week vs the Steelers, so he checks that box you want on Yahoo – which is your players getting red zone opportunities. He’s currently tied with Albert O as the 2nd highest Fantasy Points per Dollar play at the TE position with a .51. He sees a lot more volume than Albert O, however, so I like Njoku as the better cash play.

DST

Arizona Cardinals $11

Honestly the Cardinals and Panthers game could go either way and that’s why both Defenses are playable and low priced. Baker hasn’t been great – surprise surprise – and this could end up being the top play on the slate if the Cardinals get up and make the Panthers play from behind.

Carolina Panthers $10

The top 2 Defenses over at the Dom Station are the Panthers number one and Cardinals number two. The Cardinals offense has been Jekyll and Hyde this season and the Panthers D is coming off a 16-point performance and yet minimally priced. They’re popping as the top play this week from a value perspective and most likely the Defense that I’ll play in cash this week.

Washington Commanders $10

Will the Cooper Rush led Cowboys come back to Earth on a short week after a big win against their division rival on Monday night? If Washington is low owned, I’ll take some shots here in tournaments.

Top Yahoo! Stack of the Week

Josh Allen & Gabriel Davis

Stack Price: $62 of $200 Salary

Stack Projected Ownership: 23%

Game Total: 51.5

Team Total: 27.25

Okay so Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs would clearly be the top stack of the week if salary and ownership weren’t an issue but they’re both high priced and projected as high owned. If I’m stacking this game – and believe me I am – I’m getting a 7% owned Gabe Davis at a $12 discount from Diggs in my Allen stacks.

You can also double stack McKenzie & Davis as McKenzie is only $17 coming off of a 9 target, 75 yards, and 1 Touchdown performance against Miami. If you really want to play a 25% owned Diggs, I’d look to game stacks with him + Duvernay, Bateman, etc. Cheaper, less owned options as a way to get different and leverage on the field is how I’m looking to attack stacks in this game, and one offs because this is a game that you definitely want exposure to.

Yahoo! Leverage Plays Off the Chalk

Justin Herbert at 6%

Herbert played last week when he probably shouldn’t have with a rib injury and the Chargers got smoked by the Jags who have a very underrated Defense. However, the Texans are shaping up as a good game to get right for Los Angeles as Keenan Allen is slated to return. I like Herbert this week at low ownership with Allen as well if the ownership stays low.

Jared Goff at 2%

Well, it looks like Yahoo realized their pricing inefficiency last week as Goff’s price was raised from the $20 that it was to $26 this week. I don’t like his price anymore but if Jamaal Williams is going to be extreme chalk, I like low owned Goff stacks as direct leverage off of Williams. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hockenson are looking to be pretty low owned as well.

Singletary at 7.61%

Singletary got 11 targets last week and while we can’t expect that to continue, if you’re looking for ways to get different in the Buffalo offense, Singletary at $16 and 7.61% ownership is one way.

Chubb at 5.42%

The Cleveland and Atlanta game is the 2nd highest projected game total on the slate and if it’s going to be low owned, I’ll have some exposure to Chubb and hope he pops off for a few touchdowns again as he did 2 weeks ago vs the Jets.

JK Dobbins at 4.53%

Dobbins is a great one-off piece in this projected high scoring game environment. He’s $15 and projected at 4.53% ownership so you must have some exposure to him in tournaments.

Patterson at 7.79%

In 2 out of 3 games, he has 21 points. If he’s going to continue to be low owned, I’m going to continue to play him in tournaments.

Amari Cooper at 3.45%

The 2nd highest projected game on the slate is going under owned and Cooper has averaged 10+ targets in his last 2 games, 100 yards, and a touchdown. That’s what we look for on Yahoo.

Gabe Davis at 8.19%

If you drafted Gabe Davis in redraft based on the Chiefs game in the playoffs last year, you’re disappointed. However, we know what his ceiling is based on that game so we embrace his variance and play him at low ownership in a game that could be a shootout

Duvernay at 2.59%

Week 1 Duvernay had 54 yards and 2 touchdowns for 19 points. He’s projected as very low-owned and pretty cheap so he has stacking consideration in a game that you can stack a lot of different ways.

Bateman 4.1%

After Andrews, Bateman has the 2nd highest target share in Baltimore’s offense at 18%. He has a touchdown in 2 of 3 games this season and at his price and ownership, I’m taking some shots with him in stacks in the highest projected game total on the slate.

 

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