Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 4:
Sep 25, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (left) celebrates with offensive tackle Dan Skipper (70) and wide receiver DJ Chark (4) after a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
SPECIAL OFFER: Get 10% off your monthly VIP membership at DFSArmy.com with coupon code MADNESS at checkout! Our VIP’s are already crushing it this season, check out Rapidfire’s MILLION DOLLAR WINNING lineup below!
-> SPECIAL 10% DISCOUNT <-
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week four of the NFL season with the Chargers heading into Houston to take on a weak Texans team. Justin Herbert and the Chargers struggled in week 3 against the Jaguars and will need a big-time bounce back in this one. The Texans defense ranks 17th in DVOA which isn’t terrible but is 30th against the run, so do we finally get the Austin Ekeler breakout week? I think we do… the game script sets up perfectly for Ekeler who saw just four attempts last week due to falling behind to Jacksonville early and often. Even with that, he’s still had at least 11.2 DraftKings points in three straight games which isn’t great relative to his price tag, but at the very least, he doesn’t kill you. All that said, I love Ekeler this week and want to jump on him while the public is down on him. It sounds like Keenan Allen could return here which would hurt Mike Williams who had a down week last week as well. Overall, I have no issue with a full stack against the Texans, but the rib injury for Herbert is concerning to me. From the Texans, there are really only two guys I have any sort of interest in and that’s Brandin Cooks and Dameon Pierce. Pierce is a tougher sell due to the opposite game script that Ekeler will likely see. He’s seen at least 59% of the snap share over the last two weeks, but again, we could see a good amount of Rex Burkhead here as they try and play catchup against the Chargers. Cooks has a 27.1% target share on the season and if we think they fall behind quickly in this game, he’ll look great as they air it out.
5-star plays: Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks
GPP Note: The Chargers are a strong stacking option if you don’t think Herbert’s rib injury will be an issue.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game has the lowest implied total on the slate at just 39 points as the Bears head into New York to take on the Giants. Starting with the Bears, I tweeted about Justin Fields being a top point per dollar option at the quarterback position on the slate, see below.
https://twitter.com/MadnessDFS/status/1574882362827087876
He’s clearly more of a price play than anything, but the rushing upside is clearly there against a weaker Giants defense. Speaking of that Giants defense, they rank 28th in DVOA, 25th against the pass, and 28th against the run, so if he can’t get it done this week… they’re in trouble. We’ll need to keep an eye on the injury news regarding David Montgomery after he left the game early last week. If he’s forced to miss, Khalil Herbert will look like an elite option who ran all over the Texans for 157 yards and two touchdowns as Montgomery’s replacement. The Cowboys running backs looked great against this Giants front on Monday Night Football, so Herbert would be a guy I like quite a bit here. I don’t think the volume is there to target any of these receiving options for Fields yet. From the Giants, Daniel Jones has been fine on the season thanks to some rushing upside, but I don’t see the need to get to him or this stack in a game with just a 39.0 implied total. Saquon Barkely continues to look great with at least 20.6 FanDuel points in two of his first three games. The receivers are completely up in the air as they lost Sterling Shepard last week and Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson come in as questionable. It’s hard to break down their receiving group without news on them, but will Kenny Golladay finally get some looks? To be determined… but I don’t see a need to get to these guys unless both of those guys end up missing forcing Golladay and these other guys into snaps.
5-star plays: None, Khalil Herbert (if Montgomery is OUT)
4-star plays: Justin Fields, Saquon Barkley
GPP Note: This is an ugly game, no need to stack either side of this one.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We go from the lowest implied total on the slate to one of the highest as the Lions continue to be involved in shootouts. We’ll start with the weaker side of this game in terms of DFS in the Seahawks. I don’t think Geno Smith has enough consistent upside to play a full stack here, but the Lions defense is not good, so if there was a spot to take advantage, this is it. He was able to find DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett last week which was a huge plus due to their abilities as long as someone can get them the ball. Both Metcalf and Lockett have a 24%+ target rate on the season and look like nice one-off options here. I don’t really want anything to do with this backfield right now, so guys like Rashaad Penny are easy fades for me. From the Lions, Jared Goff continues to run this offense in an efficient manner with the team scoring at least 24 points in all three games. He’s hyper-targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown and for good reason, as he looks like he’s the real deal. He has a 29.5% target rate on the season and is an elite option in all formats. The backfield is a little tricky as coach Dan Campbell stated D’Andre Swift may benefit from missing a few weeks which would immediately vault Jamaal Williams into an RB1 role. Williams already has four touchdowns on the season and would be a guy I want to get a bunch of if Swift is forced to miss. Lastly, TJ Hockenson makes sense as a value-tight-end option as well for a team that isn’t afraid to air it out.
5-star plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jamaal Williams (if Swift is OUT)
4-star plays: Jared Goff, TJ Hockenson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
GPP Note: I don’t love either of these stacks even with a nice implied total, but if I were stacking either side it would be the Lions side of things.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS , as he took home $1,000,000 cash on a FanDuel main slate. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Jaguars, this offense has looked much better than I anticipated coming into the season. They’ve scored at least 22 points in each game this season and it all starts with Trevor Lawrence. He’s looked pretty good and is looking toward Christian Kirk and Zay Jones quite a bit. Both guys have a target share of over 21% on the season and at least six red zone targets. The Eagles defense has been pretty good, however as they come into this one 6th in DVOA and 3rd against the pass. If you do go with a Jaguars stack I think it would have to be an MME lineup for me. Then James Robinson will be the guy you want in this backfield. He has 28 more snaps than Travis Etienne on the season and is just doing a lot more with his touches. From the Eagles, Jalen Hurts looks incredible both on the ground and through the air. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will be a guy I want to go back to here along with his pass-catchers. Both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith have looked great, Brown has a 31.6% target share on the season while Smith is at 23.5% completely absorbing most of the targets on this team. Dallas Goedert looks like a solid tight-end option as well who brings a nice ceiling in this offense. Finally, none of the Philly RB’s have been all that great, I don’t think I want any of them, but Miles Sanders would be the guy if you think his targets start to pick up and he can start producing more in the receiving game.
5-star plays: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk
4-star plays: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Zay Jones
GPP Note: The Eagles stack looks great again and I think we can make a case for the Jags in MME.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start this ugly game with the Jets who get their starting quarterback back in this one with Zach Wilson. However, I’m not so sure this is a boost to his receiving options who have produced nicely with Joe Flacco tossing the ball. Flacco leads the league thru the first three weeks with 155 pass attempts and I don’t think the Jets are going to let Wilson run the offense that much. I’ll probably use this game as a wait-and-see game before I feel comfortable trotting Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis. I do think Breece Hall and Michael Carter could see a boost if they try and take some pressure off the young quarterback. Hall lead the backfield last week for the first time with a 51% snap share and could start to take the lead down role in this offense. From the Steelers, Mitch Trubisky is really struggling on the season and I think this could be the last week we see him as the starter, so I’m not interested in him one bit. His incompetency has led to production issues for Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens. Johnson has easily been the best with at least 10 targets in three straight games and is a good option again here, but those other two guys are more dependent on the deep ball and I’m not sure Trubisky can consistently get it to them. Najee Harris is the best option on the team and I think he’s in for a breakout weak against the Jets defense that ranks dead last in DVOA.
5-star plays: Najee Harris
4-star plays: Diontae Johnson
GPP Note: Outside of deep GPPs, there isn’t much other than Harris and Johnson that I like from this game.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Cleveland side of things where Jacoby Brissett looked solid against the Steelers in week 3. This Falcons defense is not good as it comes into this one as the 27th ranked team in DVOA. They’re also 27th against the run which sets up well for the options that I’ll have interest in from this team with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb has been great this season with at least 14 FanDuel points in each game and already has four touchdowns. Hunt is more of a secondary/tournament option simply because he doesn’t have the volume that Chubb does, but it’s obviously a great matchup if you fall in his price range. Amari Cooper has been the main piece of the passing game with at least 10 targets in back-to-back games and is a guy I like going right back to here. Finally, David Njoku had a breakout game last week and is dominating the tight-end snap shares, so he’ll look like a nice tight-end option again here. From the Falcons, I think Marcus Mariota could be sneaky on this slate… he has at least 16.4 DraftKings points in three straight games, and the Browns rank 21st against the pass on the season. Not to mention, Mariota already has eight rushing attempts in the red zone so that upside is clearly there as well. He’s also got some great stacking options in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Corderrelle Patterson. All of which I would have interest in here as one-offs or as part of a stack.
5-star plays: Nick Chubb
4-star plays: Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Kareem Hunt, Marcus Mariota, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Corderrelle Patterson
GPP Note: If I’m stacking any side of this game in tournaments it will be the Falcons, but both sides of this one has nice pieces that we can get to in all formats.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 4!
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Titans who have been a really boring team when it comes to DFS this season. Obviously, Derrick Henry is still there so he’ll continue to be an option and had his first breakout game of the season last week and will look like a good option again here. As far as the passing game goes… I don’t really have any interest in Ryan Tannehill who I wish they would just move on from and get Malik Willis in the game, similar to the Steelers’ situation. Tannehill’s inability to get the ball to guys like Robert Woods and Treylon Burks has really hurt their production. I don’t think I want anything from this passing game until we can get some consistent quarterback production… maybe Burks as a GPP flyer. The Colts are coming off of a massive win against the Chiefs last week and will look to carry that into this one as they come in as three-point favorites. The top option on the Colts will continue to be Jonathan Taylor for obvious reasons and should look good again here against the 27th-ranked DVOA defense in the league. Michael Pittman returned from injury last week and picked up right where he left off, he’ll be a great option again here as he has at least nine targets in both of his games this season. Outside of those two, there isn’t a ton that I’m interested in on this side of the ball, I just don’t trust the ceiling on Matt Ryan to outweigh the risk that comes with him.
5-star plays: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
4-star plays: None?
GPP Note: Just one-offs in this game for me.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Commanders, they came crashing down to Earth last week scoring just eight points and volatility is normally to be expected with a Carson Wentz led offense as we’ve seen already this season. The same can be said for this Dallas defense, however, so I do think there are some solid options in this offense. The nice thing that came out of last week was all three of Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson still saw their targets with at least eight for all of them. They all look nice again in this spot in hopes Wentz can get them the ball in space. Then in the backfield, Antonio Gibson continues to produce nicely and until Brian Robinson is able to come back, he’ll be the workhorse. From the Cowboys, it sounds like Dak Prescott will be out for one more week as he targets a week five return. Cooper Rush has been a solid real-life quarterback in leading them to back-to-back wins, but he’s not showing me enough in terms of fantasy production to want to get to him even in a good spot against this Washington defense. Ezekiel Elliott leads the backfield with 122 snaps on the season and is the guy that will give you the better floor but Tony Pollard may actually bring the bigger ceiling if he can find some pass game production. I would expect Michael Gallup is on the same timeline as Prescott in returning next week so we should see a healthy dose of CeeDee Lamb again in this one. Lamb could have had a massive game last week if it wasn’t for a dropped walk-in 40-yard touchdown on Monday Night. He’s demanding a ton of targets with a 32.7% target share on the season and will look like a great option again here. None of Dalton Shultz’s backups did enough for me to warrant a play this week if he’s unable to go, but it looks like Peyton Hendershot will fill in for him more in the passing game than Jake Ferguson will.
5-star plays: CeeDee Lamb
4-star plays: Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard
GPP Note: The Commanders would be my preferred full-stack but it’s a dangerous game hitching your wagon to Carson Wentz.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Onto the highest implied total on the slate as we open at a 52-point total in this one and should see plenty of fantasy goodness here. We’ll start with Buffalo where the full stack will be firmly in play against a Baltimore secondary that has looked horrid to start the season. The Ravens have given up at least 26 points in back-to-back games and now have to try and stop this high-flying offense. Josh Allen has at least 30 DraftKings points in each game this season and is an elite option in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel again here. Stefon Diggs is the main piece I want as he leads the team with a 26.1% target share on the season but I don’t hate looking Gabe Davis’s way as well if you need a cheaper option. It’s hard for me to get too interested in Dawson Knox but does make sense as a cheap tight-end option given the production that stems from Josh Allen. Then Devin Singletary will be more of a deep tournament option, I’m not expecting him to see 11 targets consistently like he did last week. From the Ravens, Lamar Jackson continues to scorch Earth with at least 43 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. This Bills defense is much better than any he’s seen this season, but he’s matchup-proof to me at this point. The main stacking option for him is Mark Andrews who has at least 28 DraftKings points in back-to-back games as well and has a massive 35.2% target share on the season. Rashod Bateman makes sense as a value option as well in this passing game. JK Dobbins did see a season-high 43% snap share last week but this backfield is one I want to stay away from until we see someone become the true workhorse.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
4-star plays: Gabe Davis, Rashod Bateman
GPP Note: I like both sides of this one quite a bit. The matchup for the Ravens is much tougher, however.
NFL season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last week and are in for some big things again in week 2! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in the most popular fantasy sport there is.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games where the Cardinals will head into Carolina to take on the Panthers. This Cardinals team has been pretty disappointing to start the season and even Kyler Murray had a rough week last week. That being said, his rushing upside gives him an incredible floor and ceiling, so I have no issue going back to him here. His favorite target right now is Hollywood Brown who had a massive week last week and has a 23.4% target share on the season. Greg Dortch makes sense as a receiving option as well with at least 12.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Zach Ertz is a nice tight-end option as well with at least 10 targets in back-to-back games. Then James Conner is a fine option here, I don’t love him but don’t hate him, he’d be more of a secondary option than anything for me. From the Panthers, at what point do we hit the panic button on DJ Moore? He hasn’t had more than six targets in any game this season and Baker Mayfield is having real issues getting him the ball. Until we see something change, he’s strictly a tournament option. Christian McCaffery has been very solid this season and we know the ceiling is there for him, this Arizona defense is not good… he’s an elite option in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery
4-star plays: Kyler Murray, Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz, Greg Dortch, James Conner, DJ Moore
GPP Note: The Cardinals are the only true stack I would have interest in in this game.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Broncos, this offense looks completely lost at the moment. They haven’t scored more than 17 points on the season, but this looks like a perfect breakout spot for them against this Raiders defense that ranks 20th in DVOA. Russell Wilson certainly has the skill level to get it to his weapons such as Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and JaVonte Williams, we just haven’t seen it with any sort of consistency this season. I have no issue taking a chance on them in this one as we’ve seen big games from each of them this season. Speaking of Williams, he’s seeing the heavier workload over Melvin Gordon and that’s how I would rank them as well, he’s the guy I want in this backfield and has shown some nice receiving upside this season as well. From the Raiders, Derek Carr is a guy that looks solid as well here, he’s trending in the right direction with an increase in production in each game this season. The real question is what’s going on with Davante Adams who has had just 48 yards combined over the last two weeks. I’m not ready to panic on him quite yet simply because he’s still seeing a 28.1% target share on the season. Guys like Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins would be more GPP options than anything for me. I do like going back to Darren Waller in this one even though he’s struggled as well on the season. The price tag is nice and finding tight-end production is not exactly easy. Lastly, Josh Jacobs is the guy you want in this backfield and is a solid secondary option again in this one.
5-star plays: Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Davante Adams
4-star plays: Jerry Jeudy, JaVonte Williams, Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs
GPP Note: I think we finally see a breakout week for the Broncos, I’ll be overweight on them here.
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Patriots where things look like they may be pretty ugly with Brian Hoyer stepping in at quarterback with Mac Jones sidelined. I don’t exactly have a ton of faith that Hoyer will be able to get the ball to a guy like Jakobi Meyers as much as Jones had been on the season and this isn’t really a passing offense that we want to look toward anyway especially in a tough matchup with this Packers defense. I do think the running game is somewhat interesting especially with Rhamondre Stevenson who could set up nicely in a positive game script for some pass-catching, he’s pretty interesting to me. Damien Harris is more touchdown and volume-dependent which I don’t think they’ll have a chance to do in this game if they fall behind quickly. From the Packers, it’s a change of pace not seeing Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball 40+ times per game, but it’s working and in a game where they’re favored by 10+ points, I don’t see that changing here, so a full stack isn’t something I want to get to in this matchup. I do think Romeo Doubs will continue to see volume however and makes sense as a receiving option at a nice price point. I do think we could see a breakout game from AJ Dillon in this one if the Packers get up early and often and decide to just run it down their throats in the second half, I have no issue with either him or Aaron Jones in this spot. Lastly… a Robert Tonyan breakout game is coming, it may not be here, it may be, but it’s coming, so he makes sense as a cheap option as well.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Robert Tonyan
GPP Note: I don’t want to stack either side of this one.
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your NFL DFS game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your NFL membership each and every month!
–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–
