Avoid These Players in 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts- Part 1

There are many ways to build a winning roster in fantasy football. Different roster constructions can give you an edge and differentiate your team, but ultimately you need to have the right players on your squad to win. Understanding the players to avoid is equally as important as there is an opportunity cost for every selection you make in a draft. Make the wrong selection early, and you will sink your team. This article will explore players to avoid in each round of 2022 fantasy football drafts.

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Round 1

We would not expect players in this round to outright bust, however we expect these players to finish below the expectation associated with round 1 draft capital.

Austin Ekeler, RB Los Angeles Chargers- Underdog Average Draft Position 6 (RB 3)

Austin Ekeler is a supreme talent and a fantasy football fan favorite. He is also a 27-year-old running back with a playing weight of 200 lbs who played in a workhorse role last season. In 2021 he nearly doubled his annual career rush attempts with 206 for 911 yards. Ekeler also had 70 receptions, 647 yards and a total of 20 touchdowns. He dramatically outperformed his ADP finishing as the RB 2 in points per reception leagues.

Entering the 2022 season, fantasy managers are drafting Ekeler assuming he will have the same production numbers as last year. Ekeler himself however was vocal that he didn’t want the workhorse role. The Chargers responded and drafted career committee back Isaiah Spiller to compliment the running game. A realistic outcome for Ekeler this season would be a finish in the range of RB 5-10. This production will be largely driven through the passing game with weekly touchdown upside. We love Austin Ekeler the player but all signs are pointing to avoiding him in the 2022 fantasy football season.

Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers- Average Draft Position 10 (RB 6)

Najee Harris had elite usage in his 2021 rookie campaign leading the league with an 86% opportunity share. This included 307 carries (#2) and 94 targets (#1). Despite that usage, Harris finished as only the #6 running back in fantasy points per game. He ranked 41^st in yards per touch with 4.4 and a meager 3.9 yards per carry.

The expectation for drafting Harris at his current ADP is improved efficiency to offset a decrease in opportunity share. The risk of course is that the Steelers simply won’t be a very good team this year. The aging Ben Roethlisberger was highly dependent on dump-offs to the running back driving fantasy production for Harris. Mitchell Trubisky, who we project to start for the Steelers in the fall, has a propensity to run when a play breaks down. We are also not confident that Trubisky can keep long drives alive so the sheer number of opportunities could decline for Harris. Be cautious if you are drafting Najee Harris in round 1 of your fantasy football drafts.

Round 2

December 19, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) runs past Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant (27) during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Deebo Samuel, WR San Francisco 49ers- Average Draft Position 19 (WR 8)

Samuel exploded into fantasy football stardom last season playing a wide receiver- running back hybrid role. This offseason Samuel has been vocal that he doesn’t want to be used in a similar role in 2022. Oh, and he also wants to get a big pay day. Samuel had an extraordinary 2021 season but it would be foolish for fantasy manager to assume he can replicate the magic this year. He may not have round 1 draft capital, but he will disappoint even in the middle or round 2.

Leonard Fournette, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Average Draft Position 24 (RB 12)

Leonard Fournette has been the buzz of the football world this week coming into training camp close to 260 LBS. This is nearly 20 LBS over his 2021 playing weight. The fantasy football community has responded and we have seen a drop in his ADP to almost out of the second round. Fournette’s trainer has publicly said we are over reacting but we disagree. Starting camp out of shape could lead to an increased injury risk. It also affords players such as rookie Rachaad White the opportunity to prove himself to Tom Brady and possibly enter the circle of trust. In the season where every player is “in the best shape of their lives”, we need to show caution with an over weight Fournette.

Round 3

Nick Chubb, RB Cleveland Browns- Average Draft Position 25 (RB 13)

Nick Chubb is a phenomenal talent which is why he is being drafted in this round. From a team perspective, the offensive productivity will be severely capped depending on the length of the Watson suspension. Chubb does not catch passes (6.25% target share in 2021) and will be relying on touchdowns to carry his fantasy production this season. He simply has an uphill battle to pay off the draft capital and is a player to fade at his cost.

A.J. Brown, WR Philadelphia Eagles- Average Draft Position 26 (WR 11)

AJ Brown has spent his career on teams with low passing volume but we continue to draft him highly due to his hyper efficiency. In 2020 he was able to finish as the WR 6 in fantasy points per game despite ranking 30^th in total targets on the season. We saw the regression in 2021 when he received nearly identical targets but failed to repeat the production finishing as the WR 24. Brown will need to repeat the amazing feat from 2020 in order to pay off his draft cost in 2022.

Round 4

Editors Note: The Geek and Shane are not in consensus on these players. In fact, Geek believes Robinson is a great value while Shane loves Johnson at his ADP.

Diontae Johnson, WR Pittsburgh Steelers- Average Draft Position 43 (WR 20)

The Steelers will have a new face at quarterback this season. Under the leadership of Ben Roethlisberger, Johnson was fed targets near the line of scrimmage. In 2021 He received close to 11 targets per game which was tied for second behind only Cooper Kupp. Johnson is an elite separator and will be the top target for either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, regardless who plays QB. He is unlikely to see the same number of targets though and will need to improve on his efficiency for his fantasy production.

Allen Robinson, WR Los Angeles Rams- Average Draft Position 48 (WR 23)

Allen Robinson may have been unhappy to be a Bear last season, but his production numbers were an embarrassment. He averaged a measly 1.1 yards of target separation, only a 29% contested catch conversion rate (65^th in the league) and finished 90^th in yards after the catch with 110 total for the season. Many fantasy managers are pointing to the career resurgence of Odell Beckham as an indicator that Robinson is in a smash spot with the Rams. However, Robinson will be 29 when the season starts which has historically been a massive decline for players of his body type. He hasn’t scored more than 7 TD since his 2015 season (14) and has struggled with injuries. Cooper Kupp will continue to dominate the team targets and unless Robinson can see at least 120+ targets, it is hard to expect he will pay off his draft price.