Drafting Quarterbacks Late Strategy - 2022 Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down data from the last three years in order to validate the strategy of drafting quarterbacks late in fantasy drafts. At the end, Gthom will also present two players who can be drafted late for the 2022 fantasy football season and what to do if your “draft quarterbacks late” strategy fails.

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Jan 2, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (5) looks to throw a pass against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Why Do We Draft Quarterbacks Late in Single-QB Leagues?

Selecting quarterbacks late in drafts can have its risks, but there are certain rewards to be had. Rewards that easily put your team into your league’s championship.

It is important to understand that quarterbacks are one of the easiest positions to replace in single-QB leagues. This is why it can be very hard for fantasy managers to draft players like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or even Justin Herbert, in single-QB leagues: the risks can outweigh the rewards.

Additionally, drafting quarterbacks high tends to make fantasy teams depend on the quarterback position a lot more. If an injury were to happen, the balance of your team could get ugly.

Nevertheless, every year there are steals to be had at the quarterback position late in fantasy drafts. In two of the last three years we have seen quarterbacks fall in drafts, based on ADP, only to finish as the QB1 overall for fantasy football.

The biggest benefit a fantasy manager gets when deploying this strategy correctly is gaining an additional, valuable, fantasy asset from rounds three through seven (normally when top QBs go off the board). Within the aforementioned rounds there easily could be one-or-two league winners available to draft (possibly more). If you hit on this player, along with a late-round quarterback, it truly can unlock your fantasy team.

Checkout our “Too Early” ADP Analysis – Value Picks for 2022

Recent Historical Data for Drafting Quarterbacks Late:

2021 Late Values:

Joe Burrow (CIN)

ADP: 105.7 or QB13
Final Position Ranking: QB5

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

ADP: 94 or QB12
Final Position Ranking: QB8

2021 Busts:

Kyler Murray (ARI)

ADP: 35.9 or QB3
Final Position Ranking: QB10

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

ADP: 44 or QB4
Final Position Ranking: QB14

Check out Three Backfields to Avoid in 2022 Fantasy Football

2020 Late Values:

Josh Allen (BUF)

ADP: 87 or QB10
Final Position Ranking: QB1

Ryan Tannehill (TEN)

ADP: 139.2 or QB19
Final Position Ranking: QB7

2020 Busts:

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

ADP: 18.1 or QB2
Final Position Ranking: QB10

Drew Brees (NO)

ADP: 76.4 or QB8
Final Position Ranking: QB21

Check Out Three Pass Catching Groups to Avoid in 2022 Fantasy Foobtall

2019 Late Values:

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

ADP: 88.2 or QB10
Final Position Ranking: QB1

Dak Prescott (DAL)

ADP: 127.3 or QB17
Final Position Ranking: QB2

2019 Busts:

Baker Mayfield (CLE)

ADP: 58.5 or QB4
Final Position Ranking: QB19

Drew Brees (NO)

ADP: 69.3 or QB6
Final Position Ranking: QB22

Two Quarterbacks to Draft Late in 2022

Trey Lance (SF) – ADP 102

Lock him in as a top-12 quarterback. We had a taste of him in 2021 and he averaged 18.7-FPPG while being the first-string quarterback in three games. The main draw is his running ability and his head coach, Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan will invaluably utilize Lance’s skillset as a running quarterback. He will likelly highlight why drafting quarterbacks late can be successful.

Justin Fields (CHI) – ADP 115

Riskier of the two options here but as the 2021 season progressed, Fields ran the ball more as a quarterback. With further development as a pocket passer and the continuation of using his legs, Fields has the chance to scratch the top-12 in 2022. I would be less inclined to have Fields as my only QB-option of a single-QB team.

The Backup Plan

Even if you – as the fantasy manager – whiff on drafting a good quarterback late, you can easily pivot to the “quarterback streamer” strategy. The streamer strategy involves rotating your starting quarterback spot, sometimes on a week-to-week basis, with bench players, waiver wire players or free agent additions (DISCLAIMER: the streamer strategy becomes much harder once you go beyond a 12-team league). While this may feel chaotic and stressful, it can weather the storm while you sure-up your quartback position.

Additionally, since you did not pick any good quarterbacks in the draft you should have hoarded excellent RBs and WRs. Package-trade a pair of those skill players and send it to a manager with a better quarterback option.