Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 05/12:

May 10, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) looks back at Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) during the first half in game five of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 207.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
We’ll kick this slate game off with the Heat side of things where, as usual, they have their whole team listed as questionable… I guess keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but they’re all going to play with the exception of Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out for this one. With Lowry out we should see Gabe Vincent head back into the starting lineup and would look like a nice value option. He went back to the starting lineup last time out and put up 26.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes of action. Jimmy Butler continues to crush and has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, and a solid game again last time out. If the Heat want to avoid a game seven, it will be on Jimmy to get it done. Bam Adebayo just looks so scared on offense with Embiid in the paint, that being said, I do like the price tag on him, and looks like a nice secondary option at the very least… I don’t think going on the road will help him though. Victor Oladipo saw his minutes come down last time out but still had a nice game for DFS purposes, however, he does look lost defensively at times which could hurt his minutes. Then we can round this team out with guys like Tyler Herro, Max Strus, and PJ Tucker who all look like secondary options at their respective price tags. Herro has struggled as of late, but Strus bounced back in a big way last time out. Then we go to the Sixers who will look to force a game seven with a win at home here. Joel Embiid has really struggled since returning from injury and it could be due to a multitude of things whether it be his injured finger, face, or defense that Miami is putting on him… and it’s actually probably a combination of all three. The price tag does look good on him again here at sub-$10k on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will be a guy I don’t have an issue getting to in GPPs at the very least. James Harden came back to Earth last time out after a big game four, he’s going to be volatile until these secondary and ancillary pieces can knock down shots to keep the defense off of him and get his assist rate up. That being said, on a two-game slate, he’ll look like a good option again. I don’t have an issue getting to Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey again either, they’re going to play massive minutes and if the Heat are going to focus on Embiid and Harden defensively these guys should see a bunch of open looks like we’ve seen this postseason. Danny Green had a down game along with the rest of the team last time out and is more of a GPP filler option than anything for me due to his volatility.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, James Harden, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: Georges Niang, Matisse Thybulle, Gabe Vincent
GPP Sleeper: Georges Niang, Matisse Thybulle, Victor Oladipo, PJ Tucker, Bam Adebayo
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win earlier in the season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 212.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -2.0
We’ll start this game off with the Suns as they look to avoid a game seven as well. Devin Booker has continued to be a consistent option who will provide a nice ceiling, he’ll look like a great option again in all formats. He has a 32.2% usage rate with 1.25 fantasy points per minute on the season. Chris Paul continues to struggle and has now been held under 30 DraftKings points in three straight games, I’m almost at the point where I’ll need to see it from him before I go back at this price tag. Deandre Ayton continues to show great consistency and will look like a good option again here as Dallas is not a good rebounding team and will be a guy I go right back to. Mikal Bridges has been great this postseason and we know the minutes will be there for him, very solid mid-range option. Then we can round this team out with Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson who will look like solid secondary pieces at their respective price tags, both can get hot from behind the three-point line at any given moment. That being said, the price on Johnson did come up a decent amount and if people will be off of Crowder due to a bad game last time out, I’ll have no problem being overweight on him. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic continues to look great and will need to carry this team if they stand any chance at sneaking out of this series. He’s pretty clearly the top spend-up option on the slate and a guy I want to get to if we can find the value to make it work. Jalen Brunson sees a -3.9% usage rate and about 0.15 fantasy point per minute decrease with Luka on the floor but he’s this team’s second option right now and makes for a solid secondary option in all formats after a nice game last time out. Spencer Dinwiddie is finally getting to a price point where I think we can feel more comfortable playing him. He’s just going to struggle with usage as most of his minutes come next to Luka and he’s a guy that needs a higher usage rate to be productive, he’ll be a tournament option at best for me. Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are pretty similar to me, we know they’re both going to play all the minutes they can handle and will look like nice filler options for your rosters. Finney-Smith came down to Earth after a massive game four, but still two guys I like getting to due to the minutes they’ll play. Dwight Powell will start at center and get the first crack at production but has not been good this postseason as they’ve played the hot hand between him and Maxi Kleber. That being said, it’s pretty clear that Kleber fits better in this series and will be a guy I get to much more than Powell. I’m just going to make Powell prove it to me before I go back to him, I’d even rather take the upside on Davis Bertans over him if I land in this price range.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Devin Booker
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder
Deeper Value: Maxi Kleber, Davis Bertans, JaVale McGee
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Maxi Kleber, Davis Bertans, Cam Johnson, JaVale McGee
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NBA Lock of the Day: Jae Crowder (DK – $5.4k; FD – $5.1k)
I’m going to play the game logs game with Crowder. He’s coming off of a bad game last time out and I’m hoping the public sees this and just overlooks him, he’s the type of guy that excels in the postseason and can get hot from the field at any given moment. The price tag looks nice with multi-position eligibility on both FanDuel and DraftKings as well. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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